The Economic Cataclysm Ahead

[SnakeBoy]

Public sentiment will drive efforts to contain it for months to come. No politician is going to want to seem reckless in the face of this. The authoritarians in Iran don't even want to do so.

I think you are roughly right about this though I would add that "normal" seems like a ways down the road to me.

Flu/Cold season ends in April. This is a non-enveloped rna virus just like influenza & the other "common cold" viruses (which includes the 4 endemic human coronaviruses). So it won't be long before we see "normal" imo.

Biggest risk to economy is oil prices. Companies are slashing capex like crazy at these strip prices. Oil glut could turn to shortage this summer...maybe.

[RandomGuy]

Flu/Cold season ends in April. This is a non-enveloped rna virus just like influenza & the other "common cold" viruses (which includes the 4 endemic human coronaviruses). So it won't be long before we see "normal" imo.

Biggest risk to economy is oil prices. Companies are slashing capex like crazy at these strip prices. Oil glut could turn to shortage this summer...maybe.

You shouldn't underestimate the hit to the economy from the lack of Chinese tourists, either. FDI for was already looking to diversify supply chains outside of China before, and that trend will accelerate after this. The big unknown is what effect a slow down on growth will have for the shadow banking sector of the Chinese economy that has, in my opinion, almost certainly developed into a bubble of epic proportions.

I hope I am wrong about the scope and effect. Been looking for signs of that bubble bursting for years, and this may be the pin that does it.

[SnakeBoy]

Been looking for signs of that bubble bursting for years, and this may be the pin that does it.

Historically the signs are Fed raising interest rates too aggressively (not happening) and high commodity prices. Not there yet but gold often leads oil historically speaking. We'll see.

[baseline bum]

Flu/Cold season ends in April. This is a non-enveloped rna virus just like influenza & the other "common cold" viruses (which includes the 4 endemic human coronaviruses). So it won't be long before we see "normal" imo.

This will be fun as cold + flu season now becomes cold + flu + corona season every year for the forseeable future.

[Thread]

You shouldn't underestimate the hit to the economy from the lack of Chinese tourists, either. FDI for was already looking to diversify supply chains outside of China before, and that trend will accelerate after this. The big unknown is what effect a slow down on growth will have for the shadow banking sector of the Chinese economy that has, in my opinion, almost certainly developed into a bubble of epic proportions.

I hope I am wrong about the scope and effect. Been looking for signs of that bubble bursting for years, and this may be the pin that does it.

I just bet you do, RG.

[RandomGuy]

I just bet you do, RG.

I do, mostly.

The Chinese economy tanking though will make their authoritarianism a lot less attractive, and their pushy-ness and swagger on the global stage a bit more empty. The time will come when they will feel strong enough to push hard.