Status of Season: Coronavirus disease (Update: NBA SEASON SUSPENDED!)

[baseline bum]

Based on what? Testing is almost non existent. China didn’t blow up. It was already blowing up and testing helped them simply identify the core areas needing the most attention.

We just came off a pretty rough flu season. Would not at all be surprised if there were people sick back in December. There’s literally nothing to go off of but I think we’re pretty shortsighted to think that it’s going to happen and not already full blown here. We know moderate to no symptoms are what 60% of the infected.

Is there anyone other than Trump who thinks this is contained?

[baseline bum]

Why would there be NBA players dying from this bro? I thought if you’re healthy and in shape you’ll be alright?

22 year old soccer player in Iran got killed by this.

[SpurSpike]

The same people that are freaking out about this are the same people that think every single NBA injury is a season ender... only later to find out its just a contusion 90% of the time!

[pad300]

It's over. 100% done. There is no hiding from this virus. 40% to 70% of the nation is going to get it most likely. There will likely be NBA players who die from this when conservative projections are 450,000 dead in the US once it has worked its way through the population.

Not to sure about that one. 30 teams X 17 players (max) = 510. Assume 80% get it (way high) = 408. They are in the young age brackets 20's and 30's. Expected lethality at that age is .1% for the general population. For a sub population that is a) extremely fit b) lacking in co-mobidities (no much smoking, obesity, heart defects, etc) c) can afford the very best available health care... how low will the fatality rate go? I suspect that the players will pretty much be fine. Coaches, GM' s and so forth are an entirely different kettle of fish...

[baseline bum]

Not to sure about that one. 30 teams X 17 players (max) = 510. Assume 80% get it (way high) = 408. They are in the young age brackets 20's and 30's. Expected lethality at that age is .1% for the general population. For a sub population that is a) extremely fit b) lacking in co-mobidities (no much smoking, obesity, heart defects, etc) c) can afford the very best available health care... how low will the fatality rate go? I suspect that the players will pretty much be fine. Coaches, GM' s and so forth are an entirely different kettle of fish...

You're probably right there. I retract that expectation.

[Prime BEEF]

It might ramp up to that eventually.

I was stating the current testing capacity in the US right now

[ChumpDumper]

I was stating the current testing capacity in the US right now

I've seen nothing approaching that number.

[BacktoBasics]

Is there anyone other than Trump who thinks this is contained?

I never said it was contained. I just think it’s already peaked or at the very least it’s been here for a month or two prior vs. just beginning. No matter what it’s going to look like a e once real testing begins. It’s rampant already.

[exstatic]

Why would there be NBA players dying from this bro? I thought if you’re healthy and in shape you’ll be alright?

No one is 100% out of the woods. If you look at the mortality demographics, there are at least SOME in every age bracket over 20. I consider the likelihood of any NBA players dying as extremely low, since it's a very small group, 450 at most, but it's not impossible.

[baseline bum]

I never said it was contained. I just think it’s already peaked or at the very least it’s been here for a month or two prior vs. just beginning. No matter what it’s going to look like a e once real testing begins. It’s rampant already.

What makes you think it has peaked?

[Prime BEEF]

I've seen nothing approaching that number.

Google is your friend

[ChumpDumper]

Google is your friend

Why don't you just tell me where you found it?

I posted my link.

[MannyIsGod]

I never said it was contained. I just think it’s already peaked or at the very least it’s been here for a month or two prior vs. just beginning. No matter what it’s going to look like a e once real testing begins. It’s rampant already.

Literally no epidemiologist I've seen has said that we'ere anywhere near a peak. It has been here for months though. The WA outbreak has been traced back to mid Jan so yeah.

[gambit1990]

Ohio health official estimates 100,000 people in state have coronavirus

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...ve-coronavirus

[MannyIsGod]

Not to sure about that one. 30 teams X 17 players (max) = 510. Assume 80% get it (way high) = 408. They are in the young age brackets 20's and 30's. Expected lethality at that age is .1% for the general population. For a sub population that is a) extremely fit b) lacking in co-mobidities (no much smoking, obesity, heart defects, etc) c) can afford the very best available health care... how low will the fatality rate go? I suspect that the players will pretty much be fine. Coaches, GM' s and so forth are an entirely different kettle of fish...

FYI, if 400 NBA players get it, assuming a .1% fatality rate, you have almost a 1/3 chance an NBA player dies.

[Prime BEEF]

Why don't you just tell me where you found it?

I posted my link.

Geez

they’ve actually updated it to 20,695 per day. Doesn’t matter. Still a really low number compared to the population.

https://mobile.twitter.com/COVID2019...0%2Fframe.html

[ChumpDumper]

Geez

they’ve actually updated it to 20,695 per day. Doesn’t matter. Still a really low number compared to the population.

https://mobile.twitter.com/COVID2019...0%2Fframe.html

Thanks, finally.

So no numbers on actual tests performed.

OK.

[BacktoBasics]

What makes you think it has peaked?

The likelihood that it’s been here for months and that you’re typically contagious for roughly 2 weeks. Again, it’s just my thoughts.

Literally no epidemiologist I've seen has said that we'ere anywhere near a peak. It has been here for months though. The WA outbreak has been traced back to mid Jan so yeah.

I look at it as two peaks. The real peak, which no will ever truly know because there still isn’t any real significant amount of testing taking place and the perceived peak as testing becomes mainstream which everyone will point to. It’s really the only data that they’ll be able to rely on.

Again, my thoughts are that this was well into the US by early January. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those flu cases through December were Conrona. Which likely puts a peak in a time where there was literally no testing at all.

[MannyIsGod]

Thanks, finally.

So no numbers on actual tests performed.

OK.

Through yesterday, there had been about 14,000 tests done nationwide in total. Not sure what the number is after today, but over half of those were done yesterday (8k). I'd imagine they've done something more than that today, so it might have doubled again today but we're obviously way behind.

[Prime BEEF]

The likelihood that it’s been here for months and that you’re typically contagious for roughly 2 weeks. Again, it’s just my thoughts.

I look at it as two peaks. The real peak, which no will ever truly know because there still isn’t any real significant amount of testing taking place and the perceived peak as testing becomes mainstream which everyone will point to. It’s really the only days that they’ll be able to rely on.

Again, my thoughts are that this was well into the US by early January. I would be surprised if some of those flu cases through December were Conrona. Which likely puts a peak in a time where there was literally no testing at all.

I like your optimism. I hope you are correct

[MannyIsGod]

The likelihood that it’s been here for months and that you’re typically contagious for roughly 2 weeks. Again, it’s just my thoughts.

I look at it as two peaks. The real peak, which no will ever truly know because there still isn’t any real significant amount of testing taking place and the perceived peak as testing becomes mainstream which everyone will point to. It’s really the only days that they’ll be able to rely on.

Again, my thoughts are that this was well into the US by early January. I would be surprised if some of those flu cases through December were Conrona. Which likely puts a peak in a time where there was literally no testing at all.

THere have 100% been flu situations that have actually been COVID19. We'll know what the peak is though, because that will be when the hospital system reaches the largest load. There hasn't been any peak. The number of cases has been able to fly under the radar and has been assumed to be flu, but its just growing. Now that we're finally starting to take this seriously the growth will slow, but it will still grow so any peak is still in the future.

[ChumpDumper]

Through yesterday, there had been about 14,000 tests done nationwide in total. Not sure what the number is after today, but over half of those were done yesterday (8k). I'd imagine they've done something more than that today, so it might have doubled again today but we're obviously way behind.

Yeah, super late at this point but at least we can do ent this to avoid a similar cluster in the future.

[BacktoBasics]

THere have 100% been flu situations that have actually been COVID19. We'll know what the peak is though, because that will be when the hospital system reaches the largest load. There hasn't been any peak. The number of cases has been able to fly under the radar and has been assumed to be flu, but its just growing. Now that we're finally starting to take this seriously the growth will slow, but it will still grow so any peak is still in the future.

Fair point but I still think that’s skewed. They typically aren’t quick to admit you for seasonal flu even if it’s bad. They’re going to be real quick to admit you now.

[MannyIsGod]

Fair point but I still think that’s skewed. They typically aren’t quick to admit you for seasonal flu even if it’s bad. They’re going to be real quick to admit you now.

Yeah, but its a simple math problem because we're dealing with exponential growth. I read a great example of a pond being covered by Lily Pads. Assume you have a pond with one lily pad and it doubles every day, and you fully cover the pond on the 30th day. Well, the riddle is to ask when the pond is half way covered, which of course is on day 29. But whats interesting, is that you don't get to 1% coverage until day 24! So even though its been here for awhile, the fact that its growing exponentially means that it grows fairly slowly until it explodes.

So its really unlikely that we had a peak then it fell off on its own. Its likely just been growing the entire time until it is so prevalent that it can't stay under the radar. But you're right that now that we're hyper vigilant to it we're going to find cases everywhere now. Well assuming we can test for it.

[spurs1990]

We should trade for Rudy now, wth the virus, fire sale pricing and we can trade our cancer for their virus. Win win

Which cancer DeRozan or Forbes. I'd say Forbes is the more malignant piece as his streaky shooting masks his outright ineffectiveness to be on a roster, much less be your starting guard