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  1. #2001
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Trying to match up with the Lakers or Clippers is silly imo. The Spurs' window for "contention" (used very loosely) doesn't start until around 2023-2024. By then LeBron will likely be out of the league and the exhaustion of draft capital will make itself felt for both teams. The Rockets will likely also be similarly depleted and Harden will be 34.
    Yeah. I mean they could pivot in 2021 if they do well in free agency, but the general point does remain that they team shouldn't worry about contenders until they're also a contender. If they draft a ROY-level player or take a flier talented but flawed player like Wall or Hayward, then they might get up to dark-horse status where they could flip a contender if they match up well. Right now, there's no bona-fide core set up to where you're looking to compliment it over talent. That said, the right complimentary pieces can help players develop better, so there's nothing wrong with wanting some bigs. It just can't be the main thing yet.

  2. #2002
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Also holy jeebus Wall's contract is awful. I've been wondering if he could do something similar to Paul in OKC. Like the talent is there, but that contract... Like as much as LMA and DMDR combined and for three more years.

  3. #2003
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    I think people are trying to solve problems that don't exist. It doesn't matter if the Spurs can match up with LAL or LAC right now. They aren't good enough to even play those teams. Right now, the goal is to get two or three building blocks. At best White and Johnson are those guys, but the Spurs still need an ace above those guys. Getting that player is way more important than getting a James or Durant defender. They could prime Bowen himself and still not be a playoff team.
    Absolutely.

    If we want more , we need an MVP level player. We don't have one now, and I don't think that anyone on the roster can be expected to develop into one. So draft the BPA, whoever he is. (That's why I think Poku is a serious option; he really could be an MVP level player in 5 years.)

  4. #2004
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    Also holy jeebus Wall's contract is awful. I've been wondering if he could do something similar to Paul in OKC. Like the talent is there, but that contract... Like as much as LMA and DMDR combined and for three more years.
    Wall is younger than Paul, but that's about the only edge I would give him when comparing the two.

    The Wizards might have to end up trading Beal to get out from under Wall's contract. I toyed around with some Wall + Beal + #9 for Aldridge + DeRozan + Murray ideas, but it unbalances the Spurs even worse in terms of being guard-heavy and puts them in contract for 3 years. They would likely have to give up an asset just to salary-dump Mills or Gay, and unless one of DeRozan or Aldridge extends their contract the Wizards would have an empty cupboard so I don't think they do the deal either.

  5. #2005
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    Wall is younger than Paul, but that's about the only edge I would give him when comparing the two.

    The Wizards might have to end up trading Beal to get out from under Wall's contract. I toyed around with some Wall + Beal + #9 for Aldridge + DeRozan + Murray ideas, but it unbalances the Spurs even worse in terms of being guard-heavy and puts them in contract for 3 years. They would likely have to give up an asset just to salary-dump Mills or Gay, and unless one of DeRozan or Aldridge extends their contract the Wizards would have an empty cupboard so I don't think they do the deal either.
    I don't think any team does a Wall/Beal deal. Basically no one has the matching contracts combined with the remaining roster to make a gamble like this make any sense. Closest I can come up with is Philly with Harris and Horford. They might have to include Simmons to make the numbers work, but if they do that, they'll need to get some legit assets back. With how bad Harris' and Horford's deals are, it wouldn't surprise me if Washington wasn't willing to take on that money either.

  6. #2006
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    Talen Horton Tucker was an interesting prospect last year. 6'4" with a 7'1.25" wingspan. I wouldnt have minded him this year if he was available

  7. #2007
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    I remember last year, you were pretty down on Brandon Clarke because his wingspan & standing reach measurements came in much smaller than expected. Iirc, you said he'd have a hard time competing because his measurements were similar to Danny Green's. If that draft could be redone, would you be much higher on Clarke now?
    Good question. I was pretty low on Clarke's fit on the Spurs; I think I had him 20th on my Big Board before the draft -- so not super low but lower than a lot of others (Samanic was a spot or two ahead of him, for reference). I thought Clarke was a good fit elsewhere and expected him to produce efficiently like he did but I didn't think he was a good fit here.

    I'm planning on writing a retrospective article of the Samanic pick and whether it was the right call to draft him while passing on Clarke and Thybulle, specifically. A shortened summary of what I'll write: Samanic underperformed as a rookie and still has the same flaws he had before the draft. Clarke and Thybulle were either as good or slightly better than expected. But it's still too early to say with certainty the Spurs were wrong because Clarke and Thybulle still have very clear flaws that made it difficult to play them at times when the compe ion ratcheted up in the bubble, while Samanic retains just enough upside to not call it a blatant mistake just yet. More likely than not it will be a mistake in retrospect because Samanic was always a longshot to make it but the final answer isn't yet known.

    Thankfully, even in a scenario where Brandon Clarke takes another big step and becomes a legitimate starter on a good team, the Keldon Johnson pick looks like it will help the Spurs front office sleep at night.

  8. #2008
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    I think people are trying to solve problems that don't exist. It doesn't matter if the Spurs can match up with LAL or LAC right now. They aren't good enough to even play those teams. Right now, the goal is to get two or three building blocks. At best White and Johnson are those guys, but the Spurs still need an ace above those guys. Getting that player is way more important than getting a James or Durant defender. They could prime Bowen himself and still not be a playoff team.
    Yeah, this is how I see it too.

    I think Spurs fans are so used to focusing on holes that need to be filled in the offseason that many don't yet realize there aren't any real holes right now because there's no boat to begin with.

  9. #2009
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    I'm planning on writing a retrospective article of the Samanic pick and whether it was the right call to draft him while passing on Clarke and Thybulle, specifically. A shortened summary of what I'll write: Samanic underperformed as a rookie and still has the same flaws he had before the draft. Clarke and Thybulle were either as good or slightly better than expected. But it's still too early to say with certainty the Spurs were wrong because Clarke and Thybulle still have very clear flaws that made it difficult to play them at times when the compe ion ratcheted up in the bubble, while Samanic retains just enough upside to not call it a blatant mistake just yet. More likely than not it will be a mistake in retrospect because Samanic was always a longshot to make it but the final answer isn't yet known.
    I always looked at it in terms of probabilities. For example, before this past season I would have said Samanic has a 30% chance of being a better player than Clarke or Thybulle 2-3 years from now, though he would be more useful to the Spurs than the other two going forward if he does pan out. This last season lowered my estimation to around 20% because even for the other twos' flaws, they were able to hang with NBA bench players for the most part. The little I saw of Samanic in the G-League showed me flashes of potential but also some cause for concern.

    I think probabilities are the best way to judge this. Make an estimate and update it as information comes in, as opposed to going 100% or 0% in one direction and either sticking to that or flip-flopping.

  10. #2010
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    I always looked at it in terms of probabilities. For example, before this past season I would have said Samanic has a 30% chance of being a better player than Clarke or Thybulle 2-3 years from now, though he would be more useful to the Spurs than the other two going forward if he does pan out. This last season lowered my estimation to around 20% because even for the other twos' flaws, they were able to hang with NBA bench players for the most part. The little I saw of Samanic in the G-League showed me flashes of potential but also some cause for concern.

    I think probabilities are the best way to judge this. Make an estimate and update it as information comes in, as opposed to going 100% or 0% in one direction and either sticking to that or flip-flopping.


    Samanic was always a home run swing. Even in a best case scenario he had a 0% chance of being better than Clarke (or even Thybulle, really) as a rookie. Clarke was one of the most efficient players in college basketball history, while Samanic was below average in the Slovenian league. The hope with Samanic was -- and still is -- that he learns how to harness his tools at some point before his rookie deal expires.

    I wouldn't say Samanic took any notable steps in that direction yet but at least it's pretty obvious that the tools are actually there to hopefully be harnessed at some point.

  11. #2011
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    Well seeing as how both of those guys are top 3 picks you going to have to bottom out to get them. You are not going to find guys like that anywhere else. Are the spurs going to bottom out ? I have my doubts.
    For sure agree with you - I guess you haven't been following my takes on this thread (wouldn't blame you, tbh). I want the Spurs to pick Precious/Smith/another 4 & Small Ball 5 prospect with this year's draft pick, then blatantly tank next season, since next years' draft is not only supposed to be much more top-heavy and talent-loaded than this years', but also filled with wing prospects. So the Spurs (if all goes to plan) could be approaching next years' draft with all holes plugged at the 1,2,4-5 positions more or less, and a top-4 pick in a wing-heavy draft. Seems like a good place to be aiming for the next Tatum/Brown, tbh.

  12. #2012
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  13. #2013
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    Good question. I was pretty low on Clarke's fit on the Spurs; I think I had him 20th on my Big Board before the draft -- so not super low but lower than a lot of others (Samanic was a spot or two ahead of him, for reference). I thought Clarke was a good fit elsewhere and expected him to produce efficiently like he did but I didn't think he was a good fit here.

    I'm planning on writing a retrospective article of the Samanic pick and whether it was the right call to draft him while passing on Clarke and Thybulle, specifically. A shortened summary of what I'll write: Samanic underperformed as a rookie and still has the same flaws he had before the draft. Clarke and Thybulle were either as good or slightly better than expected. But it's still too early to say with certainty the Spurs were wrong because Clarke and Thybulle still have very clear flaws that made it difficult to play them at times when the compe ion ratcheted up in the bubble, while Samanic retains just enough upside to not call it a blatant mistake just yet. More likely than not it will be a mistake in retrospect because Samanic was always a longshot to make it but the final answer isn't yet known.

    Thankfully, even in a scenario where Brandon Clarke takes another big step and becomes a legitimate starter on a good team, the Keldon Johnson pick looks like it will help the Spurs front office sleep at night.
    Well the archetype player that Luka could be, a big with guard ball handling and shooting skills, is to me the second best player archetype you can have outside of the "big" do everything wing...so I don't fault the Spurs for taking a chance on a guy like that...I'm fine with them taking a chance on a guy like that cause if he pans out then the Spurs could be real championship contenders in a few years...

  14. #2014
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    So with the actual draft looking to be now in November, does that make anyone interesting now eligible to be drafted? Or is it based on projected season start date? Either way, additional players should be becoming eligible. Anyone of note or anyone that would make this draft more interesting?

  15. #2015
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    So with the actual draft looking to be now in November, does that make anyone interesting now eligible to be drafted? Or is it based on projected season start date? Either way, additional players should be becoming eligible. Anyone of note or anyone that would make this draft more interesting?
    Players are eligible based mainly on their birthday relative to 12/31. If the draft happened in Januray, I think you'd see a lot of players pe ioning to get in. But in November, you have the same crop. At best, maybe the NBA let's player re-reconsider going into the draft since they might have pulled out before their colleges cancelled or postponed games for the season.

  16. #2016
    Veteran R. DeMurre's Avatar
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    So what are the advanced stats and your eye test telling you about current prospects?
    For example, looking at Precious Achiuwa and Jalen Smith, I have to go with Jalen. Jalen played a tougher strength of schedule, and has all around better advanced stats than Precious.

    ORtg.... DRtg

    Jalen: 123.9....88.9
    Precious: 101.3....82.5



    OBPM....DBPM....BPM

    Jalen: 7.7....4.3....12
    Precious: 2.5....3.4....5.8


    USG%.....WS

    Jalen: 22.8....6.0
    Precious: 27.7.....4.4

    Memphis played a slowed down game, but that ORtg from Precious is scary low-- lower than Matisse Thybulle's last year, and he was thought of essentially as a defensive genius who had little to no offensive game. The other thing that stands out to me is Jalen managed a greater all around effectiveness with a lower USG%, which is almost always a good sign. Granted, Precious was a freshman and Jalen a Sop re, and their freshman #s are closer, but I still have to give Jalen the overall edge.

  17. #2017
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    For sure agree with you - I guess you haven't been following my takes on this thread (wouldn't blame you, tbh). I want the Spurs to pick Precious/Smith/another 4 & Small Ball 5 prospect with this year's draft pick, then blatantly tank next season, since next years' draft is not only supposed to be much more top-heavy and talent-loaded than this years', but also filled with wing prospects. So the Spurs (if all goes to plan) could be approaching next years' draft with all holes plugged at the 1,2,4-5 positions more or less, and a top-4 pick in a wing-heavy draft. Seems like a good place to be aiming for the next Tatum/Brown, tbh.
    Talking isn’t a sure thing, even in a better than usual draft. Since the flattened odds were put into place last year, six of the teams that were positioned in the top four, pre-draw, lost their places, and five of those eight teams wound up outside the top four altogether. That also has a ripple effect, as teams that get bumped out of the top four in turn bump other teams further back. The NYK had a miserable season, were slotted #6, got bumped back to #8, and won’t get a player much better than us at #11. You don’t have to bottom out to get a top 4 pick.

  18. #2018
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    For example, looking at Precious Achiuwa and Jalen Smith, I have to go with Jalen. Jalen played a tougher strength of schedule, and has all around better advanced stats than Precious.

    ORtg.... DRtg

    Jalen: 123.9....88.9
    Precious: 101.3....82.5



    OBPM....DBPM....BPM

    Jalen: 7.7....4.3....12
    Precious: 2.5....3.4....5.8


    USG%.....WS

    Jalen: 22.8....6.0
    Precious: 27.7.....4.4

    Memphis played a slowed down game, but that ORtg from Precious is scary low-- lower than Matisse Thybulle's last year, and he was thought of essentially as a defensive genius who had little to no offensive game. The other thing that stands out to me is Jalen managed a greater all around effectiveness with a lower USG%, which is almost always a good sign. Granted, Precious was a freshman and Jalen a Sop re, and their freshman #s are closer, but I still have to give Jalen the overall edge.
    What about Killian Tillie?

  19. #2019
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  20. #2020
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    What about Killian Tillie?
    no, at 11, which is what this thread is about.

  21. #2021
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    For sure agree with you - I guess you haven't been following my takes on this thread (wouldn't blame you, tbh). I want the Spurs to pick Precious/Smith/another 4 & Small Ball 5 prospect with this year's draft pick, then blatantly tank next season, since next years' draft is not only supposed to be much more top-heavy and talent-loaded than this years', but also filled with wing prospects. So the Spurs (if all goes to plan) could be approaching next years' draft with all holes plugged at the 1,2,4-5 positions more or less, and a top-4 pick in a wing-heavy draft. Seems like a good place to be aiming for the next Tatum/Brown, tbh.

    How would tanking work for the Spurs? Honest question. I feel at this point, a steady dose of minutes for White, KJ, Walker, & Lyles would produce at least an average team.

  22. #2022
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    Well if Poop signs Beli and Forbes then you know we are going to be tanking that’s one way. Or Pop can always do his mystery line ups or we can just straight up tank line we did for Timmy or like Dallas did to get Luka.

  23. #2023
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    no, at 11, which is what this thread is about.
    Shoot i thought this was a thread about drafting the best player available at 11 mybad.

  24. #2024
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    Well if Poop signs Beli and Forbes then you know we are going to be tanking that’s one way. Or Pop can always do his mystery line ups or we can just straight up tank line we did for Timmy or like Dallas did to get Luka.
    You people need to come off this . The current financial climate makes Putting together a roster NOT including these two very challenging. Letting these two go, cutting Metu, cutting Zeller, resigning Poeltl puts them well over the cap (120M) and below the bare NBA minimum 13 man roster. They’d still have to pay #11. That would bring them to a 13 man roster, the NBA minimum.

  25. #2025
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    Shoot i thought this was a thread about drafting the best player available at 11 mybad.
    It is, and Tillie ain’t.

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