If the Spurs draft 11th

[Chinook]

I would argue that the Spurs feeling confident in signing Trey Lyles (or Marcus Morris if that had panned out well) was the reasoning they did not go after Brandon Clarke. Clarke's surefire production would probably only be a marginal improvement or maybe comparable production to Trey (or Marcus), hence why they were willing to pass up on him to draft Samanic.

Hence, this is why I say that great organizations always have backup plans.

As much hate Trey gets around here, he is a pretty solid player with room to grow.

You have to look at the bigger picture.

That definitely can factor in. To be clear, I didn't say the Spurs didn't have valid reasons for their selection. Ex got real butt-hurt that I said the Spurs did a bad thing, but that wasn't the point I'd been making. I don't hate Lyles and definitely wanted Morris. I think Clarke would've still been the better pick, but that's its own thing now. The point that started all this was basically saying that people overestimate ceilings for younger players because they assume players will improve beyond a realistic progression curve. To keep the 2K thing going, players' Ovl's don't just go up. Certain attributes have higher caps, and if a player can hit those specific caps, their Ovl's will be good. Like Murray might well learn to play PG, but there's zero reason to project him to do that. He can become a solid shooter and bulk up to guard more players. He can become a bit more controlled. But White can shoot better too, and he can get a better feel for the game, get more aggressive, get better chemistry with his teammates. Both have things the other lacks, and that will always be true. It's just that White's areas of potential improvement are more realistic than Murray's are, so White has a higher realistic ceiling.

[Dejounte]

The statement you quoted is absolute, so it can't be applied situationally. Maybe this is just my fault for wording it poorly, but what you're using as a counter example is actually talking about progression arc. Using 2K-style numbers for simplicity. Situation: There are two players, A and B. A staff thinks Player A has Ovl of 79 and a Pot of 83 and Player B Ovl of 70 and Pot of 90. What you're saying is that it's possible that Player B can be the right choice no matter what because they are confident in their ability to develop Player B to reach that Pot. I don't think I'm getting you wrong there, but tell me if I am.

What I'm saying is that if that that staff has to have a sense of how long that both players have to reach their potentials. If A gets to 83 in year two and B gets there in year five or six and then gets to 90 in year eight or nine, it's not clear that even they would want to pick B over A. The arc itself matters. Picking A gets 83-level play for three cheap years. Almost all of the time Player B is at that level, he's being paid like a 83-ovl player and is thus providing less value for his production. Maybe in those four years A was better than B, the GM can put together a contending roster with that extra cap space. Or maybe B walks because they want to get 83-level money but the team isn't in a position to pay that much. If both players walk after their first contract, then the team got way more value for A than B. But even if they make it to two contracts, you can still argue that A was the better pick, because the team had a solid player for longer, and that gave them more flexibility. To complicate matters, even the best staff is only somewhat certain in their progression. B might develop way faster, A might have more potential than believed or one or the other could bust. That discounts the value of the more volatile asset, because present value is worth more than future value.

I'm not saying that chunk of text definitely applies to these players. But point remains that how quickly a guy can develop is definitely important to projecting that player's ceiling, and when it comes to what teams get from their draft picks, picking a whole bunch of players that are only good once they're on their second deals is not viable financially, higher ceiling or no. You need cheap guys producing, unless you have legit MVP candidates on the roster.

Sure, but there's also Player C who has an overall rating of 80 that you can get in free agency who can give you those 4 reliable years of production, like I said above about Trey or Marcus.

Btw, i cant find your post about how the Spurs should nab a developmental center they can bring along the pipeline but honestly Samanic can fit that bill...he looks like a 4.5 to me.

[spurspl]

spurs send young guys to the gleague so whats the difference if we take younger guy and send him to 2yrs to gleague or a 2yrs older and better guy and play him now in a nba roster??

obi toppin is pretty old as a rookie but godammit he rocks in a collage. Samanic f.e wasnt and still isnt even in a gleague. He needs more time. Probably, but thats not for sure, he will be ready for an nba in an age like obi toppin is now

[TD 21]

honestly Samanic can fit that bill...he looks like a 4.5 to me.

Nah, he's strictly a 4. T-rex arms and no strength (he'll get stronger, but he'll probably always lack it) likely means defensive rebounding/rim protection will always be an issue.

[Chinook]

Sure, but there's also Player C who has an overall rating of 80 that you can get in free agency who can give you those 4 reliable years of production, like I said above about Trey or Marcus.

Btw, i cant find your post about how the Spurs should nab a developmental center they can bring along the pipeline but honestly Samanic can fit that bill...he looks like a 4.5 to me.

Yes, but those players cost more, and teams might not be able to bring those guys in if they had different needs. Plus, that just highlights the value difference. Teams compensating the value difference doesn't negate the value difference. It just means that Player B has to be even better to make up for making his club use additional flexibility to make up for him.

Anyway, I don't think Sam will get big enough to be a center. I mean Gay plays it, so anything is possible. But I don't know if I'd even want him to bulk up to play fives. Who knows, though, since Jan Vesely is a decent five in Europe right now, and folks thought he was a combo-forward when drafted. Hope Sam doesn't follow that progression.

[K...]

Scouts are only good if they also have a solid player development team behind them. That's what the Spurs have and why the lottery teams never improve. To succeed via the draft you need either can't miss prospects, or a solid team foundation to integrate into.

[Dejounte]

Yes, but those players cost more, and teams might not be able to bring those guys in if they had different needs. Plus, that just highlights the value difference. Teams compensating the value difference doesn't negate the value difference. It just means that Player B has to be even better to make up for making his club use additional flexibility to make up for him.

Anyway, I don't think Sam will get big enough to be a center. I mean Gay plays it, so anything is possible. But I don't know if I'd even want him to bulk up to play fives. Who knows, though, since Jan Vesely is a decent five in Europe right now, and folks thought he was a combo-forward when drafted. Hope Sam doesn't follow that progression.

It's possible for a player who takes up 10% of the cap can be the same value as a player who takes up 3% of the cap. How does that make sense? Well, there are situations where the team has to use up their cap anyway, so in this sense, financial value is negligible. Plus, factor in value based off larger contracts which can be useful as trade chips because of their ability to provide cap relief (whereas draft pick contracts cant)

[Chinook]

It's possible for a player who takes up 10% of the cap can be the same value as a player who takes up 3% of the cap. How does that make sense? Well, there are situations where the team has to use up their cap anyway, so in this sense, financial value is negligible. Plus, factor in value based off larger contracts which can be useful as trade chips because of their ability to provide cap relief (whereas draft pick contracts cant)

I don't disagree that there are different multipliers that come with cap space, but it's not true that the same player on different contracts provide the same value. If you use the MLE to replace A so B and develop, you missed out on the chance to use the MLE on a C to shore up a different position since A already can do one. And you can trade C just as much in both situations. There's also no guarantee that C is expiring.

[SAGirl]

That's not the way it works. When Sam is 23, Clarke with be 27, and four years of Spurs seasons will have gone by. That's a lot of opportunity cost, and that ignores that Brandon will be in his physical prime. Age really isn't all that important. Wiggins is still younger than Derrick White. I get drafting players for the future, but that doesn't mean how they are in the present doesn't matter. The biggest benefit to drafting players is having them on cheap contracts. Even if they're better on their second contracts, it may not be worth it to have them over a lesser guy who gave four solid years from jumpstreet. And this ignores that even if Luka is a good player at 23, he may not remain a Spur due to contract or personality. No reason to overcount those eggs.

And that is if he's ever as good as Clarke. As you said, sometimes these picks based on potential simply don't pan out, or they turn into de colo, and want to return to Europe bc they aren't getting played, etc. Who knows?

I am not against them drafting on potential, they need it. It's just that of all the young guys drafted on potential Samanic seems like the one with more question marks. He has issues with his compe ive spirit, effort, even his reputation from his older team.

It's too soon to say for sure obviously but he could easily bust. At least he looks like he will need another year to develop, in the very least and truthfully sometimes these picks that are a couple of years away, ending up being a couple of years away from being a couple of years away, like indeed Bruno Caboclo. Hoping not, but it's a definite possibility right now. At least I am glad that the Spurs got Johnson from that draft bc if Samanic was all they got from the draft last year, this team would be further behind than they look right now.

[exstatic]

I would argue that the Spurs feeling confident in signing Trey Lyles (or Marcus Morris if that had panned out well) was the reasoning they did not go after Brandon Clarke. Clarke's surefire production would probably only be a marginal improvement or maybe comparable production to Trey (or Marcus), hence why they were willing to pass up on him to draft Samanic.

Hence, this is why I say that great organizations always have backup plans.

As much hate Trey gets around here, he is a pretty solid player with room to grow.

You have to look at the bigger picture.

(trey is also about the same age as Clarke)

[ace3g]

Shams Charania ShamsCharania




The NBA plans to hold the Aug. 20 Draft Lottery virtually, with 14 team representatives appearing via virtual display, sources tell @TheAthleticNBA @Stadium.
3:17pm · 10 Aug 2020 · TweetDeck

[SAGirl]

Btw, i cant find your post about how the Spurs should nab a developmental center they can bring along the pipeline but honestly Samanic can fit that bill...he looks like a 4.5 to me.

If there is a big they like, I hope they draft him. As much as I may have complained about them continuing to draft guards at one point, them continuing to fish for a gem has yielded good results. Increasing the compe ion and pressure on Samanic would probably even help him get his head in the right place. I actually liked that he had to compete with Metu. In fact, if they don't keep Metu (I wouldn't expect them to), it would be good to draft another development project big for compe ion. I think it was you who said, it's not good to place all the eggs on one basket.

[Dejounte]

Random thought...

If Drew, who everyone thought would never make an NBA roster (including myself), all of a sudden looks like he is competent... There is still hope for Samanic.

Drew playing like he is now is a downright miracle. He never made any impact in garbage time whenever he came from Austin during the regular season to show he belongs.

It's like night and day...

[Dejounte]

If there is a big they like, I hope they draft him. As much as I may have complained about them continuing to draft guards at one point, them continuing to fish for a gem has yielded good results. Increasing the compe ion and pressure on Samanic would probably even help him get his head in the right place. I actually liked that he had to compete with Metu. In fact, if they don't keep Metu (I wouldn't expect them to), it would be good to draft another development project big for compe ion. I think it was you who said, it's not good to place all the eggs on one basket.

Sure thing. I trust the Spurs. Like everybody I'm just speculating what they'll do come draft time, using previous knowledge of how the Spurs have acted in the past and deductive reasoning. If they choose a big (I'm assuming you mean a center here), so be it.

If the Spurs draft the players I like (Deni, Okongwu, Toppin, Precious, Pat Williams), then for sure they'll be competing with Samanic unless he moves to 5. Best thing that could happen to Samanic is us drafting Deni though, since they seem to be buddies already on Instagram and Deni is a playmaker who could form a Luka/ Porzingas-like tandem with Samanic.

[Dejounte]

Here's a video showing Toppin's good and bad (misses, offensive fouls, turnovers, etc.)

This channel is amazing. They have a lot of content on players and it doesnt just show highlights, which is great
Chinook

[Kurgan]

Random thought...

If Drew, who everyone thought would never make an NBA roster (including myself), all of a sudden looks like he is competent... There is still hope for Samanic.

Drew playing like he is now is a downright miracle. He never made any impact in garbage time whenever he came from Austin during the regular season to show he belongs.

It's like night and day...

Part of that comes down to work ethic. He seems like a grounded dude that's taking nothing for granted - I remember a clip of Eubanks practicing his three point shot a couple months ago. It seems like he's always working on his game. Contrast that to someone like Jakob who doesn't look any different than the player he was in Toronto.

Another example...after the Nuggets playoff loss, White spent the summer working on his three. It's paying off with all these bubble games where he looks like the Spurs best player. Contrast that to Murray, who still looks like a raw work in progress(despite having more NBA experience than White).

Samanic has the tools to be a really good player but that's all going to be meaningless if he's doesn't put the work in. As much as I hate Nephew, he's a great example of what work ethic can do for you(if you have the physical tools). Every year it seemed like he added something to his game and kept getting better and better.

[SAGirl]

Sure thing. I trust the Spurs. Like everybody I'm just speculating what they'll do come draft time, using previous knowledge of how the Spurs have acted in the past and deductive reasoning. If they choose a big (I'm assuming you mean a center here), so be it.

If the Spurs draft the players I like (Deni, Okongwu, Toppin, Precious, Pat Williams), then for sure they'll be competing with Samanic unless he moves to 5. Best thing that could happen to Samanic is us drafting Deni though, since they seem to be buddies already on Instagram and Deni is a playmaker who could form a Luka/ Porzingas-like tandem with Samanic.

I am only just seeing everyone's opinion at this point. I'll watch video when when offseason is here and then I'll speculate. I really like all this discussion. I used to watch a lot more developmental players. Just haven't been interested in the past couple seasons, as I became more casual and busier. Still here though and really excited and hopeful to add some size to this core. Don't have a mind on position, just want them to get a real player... get the development project with the 2nd.

[DAF86]

Here's a video showing Toppin's good and bad (misses, offensive fouls, turnovers, etc.)

This channel is amazing. They have a lot of content on players and it doesnt just show highlights, which is great
Chinook

Looks more like a center than a forward, tbh.

[Dejounte]

Here's a 1 hour and 30 minute video of the good and bad of Devin Vassell. After watching this, i just want to reiterate how much I dislike him as a prospect. He has awful shot selection, almost no feel for the game on offense, his form looks terrible, he runs around on offense like he doesnt know where to be and ends up killing the spacing and bumping into his own teammates. Dude is dumb as a rock on offense. Compared to his teammate, Pat Williams, he looks like a scrub. Pat is also about 2" taller than him.

[DAF86]

40% shooter from 3. Interesting. Will he be available at 11?

Edit: talking about Toppin.

[Dejounte]

I am only just seeing everyone's opinion at this point. I'll watch video when when offseason is here and then I'll speculate. I really like all this discussion. I used to watch a lot more developmental players. Just haven't been interested in the past couple seasons, as I became more casual and busier. Still here though and really excited and hopeful to add some size to this core. Don't have a mind on position, just want them to get a real player... get the development project with the 2nd.

Same boat as you. Keldon reignited my love and excitement for the Spurs.

[Kurgan]

(trey is also about the same age as Clarke)

You forgot to mention that Trey is also a much worse player:

[Chinook]

40% shooter from 3. Interesting. Will he be available at 11?

Edit: talking about Toppin.

I think he will be available between 7 and 11. That Phoenix took Johnson so high last year makes me think they could take Toppin. The lack of a regular scouting process could also make teams fall back on production. Something tells me he'll be there, though. He's very much a solid four or 4/5 though, and that's not ideal. But he's also the kind of talent in my mind (which hasn't yet seen the video Dejounte linked) will warp the starting lineup around him. He just pops to me, even when it comes to things like sprinting down the court on the break. I think he could be the lead dog but also play well off the guards. Checks a lot of boxes.

[Dejounte]

You forgot to mention that Trey is also a much worse player:

Could our disjointed offense for most of the season and their (likely better) offense be the reason for the staggering difference? Just saying... We ran a ISO centric offense ( DeMar) whilst they ran a transition heavy offense... Brandon's stats could be inflated.

[Chinook]

You forgot to mention that Trey is also a much worse player:

Trey's a fine enough player in my mind. I have nothing against him. But Ex continuing to use age as the absolute measure of potential is getting weird. Like clearly if Clarke is about as good as Lyles (for argument's sake) despite only having one off-season of NBA training and one year to adjust to the speed of the game, the lifestyle, the extra workload, going against bigger players etc, it just makes Clarke look way better. Even if there was nothing Brandon could do to improve physically or mechanically, just making mental adjustments will make him a better player than he is now.