Yea, he writes an executive order and they stop producing phony case #'s and death counts? I don't think so.
New Yorks data is more mature. Will Florida's rate go up or down as their dataset from the most recent infections matures?And yet Florida has a higher population of elderly at risk people and their death rate is far below NY. You’re right, you can’t compare them
It's like you don't understand reporting lags, or the passage of time.
If we don't stop it, Texas will end up worse than New York. it wil spread far more widely and be a lot harder to control. Church incubators will make sure it spreads among the gullible.
I will guess it will get a lot closer than that. We may have better treatments and for now it is younger people getting it, but those young people will transmit it to older demographics as it gets more and more widespread.
The sheer number of trrump cultists here will mean a lot more infected overall.
New Yorks data is more mature. Will Florida's rate go up or down as their dataset from the most recent infections matures?
It's like you don't understand reporting lags, or the passage of time.
Let me know when we catch up to NY
Not really an answer to my question.
It will take months before we know how many are dying this week or last week.
It's like being shown to be wrong here, repeatedly, hasn't taught you anything. smh
Current trends in Florida show a significant increase in percent positive test results in recent weeks. Florida has significantly increased the amount of testing. The average age of infection has dropped substantially and there is clear evidence that younger people who are much lower risk of death from COVID-19 are out and about.
This second wave of infections is likely similar in magnitude to the initial outbreak in March, but early testing was limited, so this can be inferred by secondary analysis using our COVID Decision Model. We take close look at the current data and evaluate outcome trends in Florida. Our model is well suited for modeling dynamic heterogeneous effects, especially those based on age demographics. Note that data reporting is delayed, and as such, the model may deviate somewhat from updated data. We have modeled a range of scenarios to assess long term outcomes.
We reference the Florida Department of Public Health for statistics. We present the model results for five scenarios. The details of each case study are presented at the bottom of this post.
We make several observations:
People are modulating their connectivity in proportion to their risk.
Infections are up, but deaths will continue to decline.
The Infection Fatality Rate is declining rapidly and approaching flu like levels.
The second wave will rapidly decline over the summer and the virus is likely to die out without the need for vaccine if behavior continues to be modulated by risk.
Florida is doing a good job protecting a large population of elderly vulnerable people.
Despite the criticisms from many seeking to create panic, the people of Florida offer a great example the path forward for COVID-19 mitigation. As the population organically loosens up by age demographic where risks are low, the infection is essentially working through those populations and burning itself out.
From a public policy perspective, it is imperative to educate people to their actual risks so that those who are vulnerable can minimize risky interactions. It is important to continue to protect the vulnerable people who can’t protect themselves in ins utions or are under the care. Younger people should continue to minimize potentially infectious contact with vulnerable populations. Good hygiene should continue to be encouraged, including hand washing and wearing masks in close quarter indoors.
This recovery approach provides the best balance of economic recovery and public health.
The Florida Second Wave Model
We have an increase in infections that are likely resulting from an overall increase in connectivity proportional to age (younger people dropping social distancing norms). The loosening of stay at home orders in mid May and widespread civil protests after Memorial Day both contributed to this increased connectivity. This increased social contact for younger demographics has caused a large e in infections. Death rates resulting from these infections will be very low.
We have modeled a heterogeneous shift in behavior by age group, proportional to actual individual risk. We assess five scenarios to understand the nature of this second infection wave in Florida and a range of outcomes over time. A simulation population of 2 million agents is scaled to the 21.4 million in presented results.
Case 1 assumes modest social distancing and reduced connectivity in proportion to risk (age). This case best matches the current data trends.
Case 2 is the same as Case 1 with incrementally more increased contact.
Case 3 is the same as Case 2 with significantly increased contact going forward. This is not likely a realistic scenario.
Case 4 is similar to Case 1, with reduced contact in July and then increased contact similar to Case 2 from August onward.
Case 5 is light switch to show a worst case and is presented for reference. This is not a realistic scenario.
Case 1, 2 and 3 are representative of likely scenarios. Death and infection trends for these scenarios are presented below. Death curves are well matched to the existing trends. The infections rate shows a clear second hump due to the age stratified increase in mobility (younger cohorts are more mobile) and matches current % positive test trends. We also show the due to the younger distribution of infections, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) has dropped from an initial value of 0.5% to less than 0.2%.
https://covidplanningtools.com/flori...wave-analysis/
data at link....don't be lazy again.
Translation:
"According to this data from two months ago, everything is fine in Texas"
That is what you are saying here.
Do you understand that?
Last edited by RandomGuy; 07-10-2020 at 02:31 PM. Reason: three rules.
First it's "nothing", then "the flu", then "I'm not scared", then "I'm still going to the bar", followed by "I don't need a mask", then "It won't get bad here", next was "there are plenty of beds", NOW it's "let me know when we're NY", next will be "well, at least it isn't millions of deaths".
How Two Waves of Coronavirus Cases Swept Through the Texas Panhandle
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/dispatch/how-two-waves-of-coronavirus-cases-swept-through-the-texas-panhandle
He can certainly write an executive order outlawing lockdowns and re-opening schools. That's right within his alley.
Plus this reporting you're alluding, is published by the CDC, which is run by the ing Executive.
run by Trash's sycophants who are at war with the CDC professionals
I expect Trash's FDA sycophants will rush through an under-tested so-called vaccine ASAP so Trash can boast about HIS vaccine.
He could; but then anything and everything that "goes bad" will be blamed on him.
Your suggestion is really a non-starter.
God forbid the President of the United States be responsible for anything he does.
Do you ever think about what you post?
God forbid the Congress do their job. They're the ones who should be passing such protections, dip .
Should Trump be held responsible for anything he has done or failed to do as POTUS?
Yes or no.
What do you mean, "goes bad"? This is a hoax, isn't it? What could possibly go bad? lol
I agree that Congress is MIA in all this, tbh
I think executive order power is abused. Trump has been no exception. Though I haven't monitored it closely enough to know if it's been worse than Bush/Bama.
My guess would be no.
Frankly, all the legislatures at national, state, local have been MIA. It's sad watching America devolve. We fought for our republican values; and they're being trampled on.
A giant hoax. But whatever pretend deaths from COVID would still be pinned on him. Not that loons like RandomCuck aren't doing that, anyways.
But there would be more traction.
Did Obama rape Americans?
Yes or no.
There's nothing 'pretend' if people are actually dying. And we clearly have much more deaths than any other given year.
Unless you're advancing that the CIA is going out there and killing people (which would be even more absurd), there's really no argument this virus kills a lot of people.
At this point, the hoax argument is simply re ed. You can argue whether the virus deserves the level of attention it has been given, but being in denial this is a major health emergency is just crazy talk.
I largely agree that the executive has grown an inordinate amount of power, but the reality here is that people are dying, and Congress isn't moving.
Leaders that have the tools to do something about it should act, IMO. Again, these are not normal times, this is a state of emergency.
This guy didn't ask for permission to go bomb Soleimani. This is much more important and affects American lives.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
