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Hopeful But Condescending Swede
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You're arguing herd immunity, obviously. There's no evidence that the hardest hit regions in the world are anywhere close to herd immunity, which requires anywhere from 70%-90% of the population to be infected. The "some people might be naturally immune" hasn't been proven. They did a serosurvey of Northern Italy (the hardest hit region) in April when they were past their plateau and exponentially declining. The results:
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/During the study period characterized by a gradual implementation of social distancing measures, there was a progressive increase in adjusted seroprevalence to 5.2%,
So why has Italy and other hard hit regions remained flat in cases and deaths? Because social distancing, even in an "open economy" (and these regions aren't fully open), along with mask wearing work. The thing about exponentials is that a slight reduction can have a profound effect.
Difference between an R0 of 2.2 and an R0 of 1.5 is almost 5 million deaths. Play around with the values.
http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html
But many Americans have shown they will not have their Freedumbs infringed upon by abiding by mask orders, by limiting large gatherings (so many packed driveways and houses during July 4th), and by behaving responsibly (packing bars and such). If New York's citizens get impatient and lax, they will face another outbreak. They, too, aren't anywhere close to herd immunity.
What if herd immunity (practically speaking) is way before 70% or more?
Wait. If you have no fear of it for yourself, why did you kick your child and friend out of the house?
Yeah there's no way any white people would pass it to you at your all white neighborhood bar
I guess we know the race and size of his child's friend
No need to be completely careless
I would call that a reasonable amount of fear.
Pe e white girl. off
I wear seatbelts, too.
Also the law but a reasonable fear of auto accidents.
It doesn't make you less of a man. Relax.
Most patrons at my bar are Hispanic. off
Most patrons at my bar are Hispanic. off
damn it you complied with an unnecessary law.
Spurter and TGY are going to blame YOU when they are required to wear a mask and bra.
Its a broad slippery slope, this compliance thing.
We had the plan back in March. Shutdown hard for 2 months (which the collective nation didn't) and then reopen by phases and continue to practice social distancing, limit large gatherings, set up a test-and-trace solution, and wear masks.
What happened?
Immediately there were protests against "evil tyrant governors" shutting down their states, people were having large gatherings in churches out of spite, and an avalanche of lockdown skepticism from Covid "truthers" ran rampant on every social media platform. By Memorial Day, we were back to square one. Now, these same truthers and skeptics are refusing to wear masks, crying about how any test-and-trace solution would be "government overreach," and are already refusing to go back into any sort of lockdown.
And sure, if you want to throw some blame at the Floyd protests, sure. Only the most naive would think it didn't contribute to some case increase, but the main vector really has been indoor gatherings.
And these people. They derailed the progress we were making out of their sheer objection to abide by anything they perceive to have a "liberal slant." Society shouldn't be forced into the herd immunity solution because these assholes don't want to wear a mask in Target and stay home as much as they can. them again.
What if it isn't? What if it only lasts 6 months? What if supposed "low risk" demographics suffer long term health consequences more than we thought (even asymptomatics are showing lung damage). When you're playing with people's lives and health, "what ifs" aren't good enough.
It was a question I don't know the answer to, but it's fairly apparent that hardest hit areas had sharply declining curves. Seemed worthy of debate.
Maybe those are the areas that take the virus most seriously now and comply with social distancing and mask wearing the most.
Are you being serious?
Yes, you can sharply decline the curve by mask wearing, social distancing, and just being careful. You don't need to require people to get sick. That's cruelty. Many people like to refer to Sweden, and think they were essentially business as usual, but their citizens were pretty much behaving as if they were in lock down. Plus, advantages for Sweden is like 50 percent of their population is single person homes and many of them work from home anyway. But not locking down hard in Sweden vs. Denmark/Norway allowed the virus to sneak into nursing homes and infect other at risk groups.
My issue with the US in this context is that we are collectively too selfish, individualistic, and stupidly stubborn to behave the way a Sweden has. If 30 percent of the population doesn't buy in, then it won't work. And as I said above, people shouldn't be forced into the herd immunity solution because these "truthers" don't want to mask up and limit social interaction as much as possible.
Yes. You know protesters were a tiny fraction of the actual populations of these areas, don't you? Not to mention your constant claim that the virus would hardly be spread outdoors-- at least you said that before the protests. I guess it's not actually worthy of debate.
But, that's what happened where the curve dropped fast.
You need to make up your mind as to what to be afraid of, tbh
You need to get back under your bed and off.
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