Texas response to Corona virus

[ChumpDumper]

Image Credit: Yinon Weiss | Twitter: @yinonw

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Economics Sweden COVID-19 Ludwig von Mises Andrew Cuomo Coronavirus Belgium Anders Tegnell Individual Responsibility Human Action

Why Sweden Succeeded in “Flattening the Curve” and New York Failed

The reason New York failed to "flatten the curve" and Sweden succeeded probably has little to do with lockdowns.



by Jon Miltimore



Coronavirus deaths have slowed to a crawl in Sweden. With the exception of a single death on July 13, no deaths in this nation of 10 million have been reported since July 10.

But the debate over Sweden’s approach to the COVID-19 pandemic, which relied on individual responsibility instead of government coercion to maintain social distancing, is far from over.

Last week, The New York Times labeled Sweden’s approach to the pandemic a “cautionary tale” for the rest of the world, claiming it “yielded a surge of deaths without sparing its economy from damage.”

To be accurate, Sweden has outperformed many nations around the world with its “lighter touch” approach and was one of the few nations in Europe to see its economy grow in the first quarter of 2020.

Meanwhile, Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s top infectious disease expert, continues to defend his nation’s approach to the pandemic.

“I’m looking forward to a more serious evaluation of our work than has been made so far,” Tegnell said in a recent podcast published by Swedish public radio before taking a scheduled vacation. “There is no way of knowing how this ends.”

Sweden’s Actual Pandemic Performance

Sweden has become a global lightning rod, but this has less to do with the results of its policies than the nature of its policies.

While Sweden’s death toll is indeed substantially higher than neighbors such as Finland, Norway, and Denmark, it’s also much lower than several other European neighbors such as Belgium, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain.

Indeed, a simple comparison between Belgium and Sweden—nations with rather similar populations—reveals that Belgium suffered far worse than Sweden from the coronavirus.

Comparing the epidemic curve in Belgium (11.5m pop), which locked down early on 17 Mar, and Sweden (10.2m pop), with no lockdown. Chart depicts deaths by date of occurrence, with Sweden per capita adjusted. Total per million: Belgium (844); Sweden (547). pic.twitter.com/W7u5pCQ8MV

— Paul Yowell (@pwyowell) July 11, 2020

The reason Sweden is a “cautionary tale” and Belgium is not is because Belgium followed the script. Early in the pandemic, Belgian officials closed all non-essential business and enforced strict social distancing rules.

All non-emergency workers were told to stay home. Shopping was limited to a single family member. Individuals could leave for medical reasons or to walk a pet or get a brief bit of exercise—so long as social distancing was maintained.

These lockdown protocols, the BBC reported, were strictly enforced by Belgian police using “drones in parks and fines for anyone breaking social distancing rules.”

A More Suitable ‘Cautionary Tale’

Sweden clearly endured the pandemic better than Belgium, which had nearly twice as many COVID-19 deaths despite its economic lockdown.

Yet the Times chose Sweden as its “cautionary tale” because Sweden chose not to ins ute an economic lockdown. Sweden took such an approach for two reasons. First, as Tegnell has publicly stated, there is little to no scientific evidence that lockdowns work. Second, as evidence today shows, lockdowns come with widespread unintended consequences: mass unemployment, recession, social unrest, psychological deterioration, suicides, and drug overdoses.

Even if Sweden has seen its death toll rise more sharply than Scandinavian neighbors such as Finland and Norway, it’s strange that the Times would go thousands of miles across an ocean and continent to find a “cautionary tale.” A far better cautionary tale can be found right under the Grey Lady’s nose.

A simple comparison between New York and Sweden shows the Empire State has suffered far worse from COVID-19 than the Swedes. Yinon Weiss, an entrepreneur and founder of Rally Point, recently compared Sweden and New York using data from the COVID Tracking Project.

Here’s the good news: You can shut down businesses or keep them open. Close schools or stay in session. Wear masks or not. The virus will make its way through in either case, and if we protect the elderly then deaths will be spared. pic.twitter.com/AVg0Vu8aH2

— Yinon Weiss (@yinonw) July 13, 2020

The first thing one notices about the comparison is that Sweden was able to “flatten the curve,” so to speak. Though the phrase is largely forgotten today, flattening the curve was originally the entire purpose of the lockdowns. To the extent that there was a scientific basis for lockdowns, it was in the idea that they were a temporary measure designed to help hospitals avoid being overwhelmed by sick patients.

Dr Robert Katz, founding director of the Yale‐Griffin Prevention Research Center, observed that by flattening the curve “you don't prevent deaths, you just change the dates.” But a temporary lockdown could at least prevent everyone from getting sick at once, which would be catastrophic.

If flattening the curve was the primary goal of policymakers, Sweden was largely a success. New York, on the other hand, was not, despite widespread closures and strict enforcement of social distancing policies.

The reason New York failed and Sweden succeeded probably has relatively little to do with the fact that bars and restaurants were open in Sweden. Or that New York’s schools were closed while Sweden’s were open. As Weiss explains, the difference probably isn’t related to lockdowns at all. It probably has much more to do with the fact that New York failed to protect the most at-risk populations: the elderly and infirm.

“Here’s the good news: You can shut down businesses or keep them open. Close schools or stay in session. Wear masks or not,” says Weiss, a graduate of Harvard Business School. “The virus will make its way through in either case, and if we protect the elderly then deaths will be spared.”

This is precisely the prescription Dr. John Ioannidis, a Stanford University epidemiologist and one of the most cited scientists in the world, has advocated since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Remember when this was still a thing? pic.twitter.com/HqSQ5uTaFz

— Jon Miltimore (Parler: @Miltimore79) (@miltimore79) July 14, 2020

Like Tegnell, Ioannidis early on expressed doubts about the effectiveness of lockdowns and warned they could produce wide-ranging unintended outcomes.

“One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health,” Ioannidis wrote in a STAT article in March. "Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric.”

Sadly, many of the adverse consequences Ioannidis predicted have since come to pass, as he has acknowledged.

Is Sweden Truly a ‘Cautionary Tale’?

Tegnell and Swedish leaders have mostly stood by their lighter touch approach, although there is a recognition that they, too, could have more effectively protected at-risk populations.

“We must admit that the part that deals with elderly care, in terms of the spread of infection, has not worked. It is obvious. We have too many elderly people who have passed away,” Sweden’s Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said in June.

Yet it’s a mistake to label Sweden’s approach a failure. As noted above, Sweden is being criticized less because of the results of their public health policies and more because of the nature of them.

By embracing a much more market-based approach to the pandemic in lieu of a centrally planned one, Sweden is undermining the narrative that millions and millions of people would have died without lockdowns, as modelers predicted.

Without Sweden and a few similar outliers, it would be far easier for central planners to say, Sure, lockdowns were harsh and destructive. But we had no choice.

In the wake of the most destructive pandemic in a century, there will be considerable discussion as to whether the lockdowns, which stand to trigger a global depression in addition to other psychological and social costs, were truly necessary.

In a sense, the disagreement over the pandemic largely resembles a much larger friction in society: should individuals be left free to pursue their own interests and weigh risks themselves or should they be guided, coerced, and protected by planners who want to do all this for them.

As Ludwig Von Mises noted long ago, modern social conflict is largely a struggle over who gets to design the world, individuals or authorities. Mises saw few things more dangerous than central planners seeking to supplant the plans of individuals with plans of their own, which they see as a preeminent good.

It was partly for this reason Mises saw market economies as superior to command economies.

“Whatever people do in the market economy, is the execution of their own plans. In this sense every human action means planning,” Mises wrote in Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis. “What those calling themselves planners advocate is not the subs ution of planned action for letting things go. It is the subs ution of the planner’s own plan for the plans of his fellow-men. The planner is a potential dictator who wants to deprive all other people of the power to plan and act according to their own plans. He aims at one thing only: the exclusive absolute pre-eminence of his own plan.”

When Mises speaks of the “pre-eminence of his own plan,” it’s hard not to think of New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who in March sounded downright indignant when a reporter asked about nursing homes objecting to his plan of prohibiting them from screening for COVID-19.

“They don’t have the right to object,” Cuomo answered. “That is the rule, and that is the regulation, and they have to comply with it.”

Cuomo clearly saw his central plan as superior to that of individuals acting within the marketplace.

The policy of forcing nursing homes to take COVID carrying patients, which was adopted by numerous US states with high virus death tolls, is a stark contrast to Sweden’s market-based approach that trusted individuals to plan for themselves.

“Our measures are all based on individuals taking responsibility, and that is … an important part of the Swedish model,” Hakan Samuelsson, the CEO of Volvo Cars, observed in April.

Sweden’s approach of encouraging social distancing by giving responsibility to individuals may very well explain why the Swedes fared so much better than New York, where authorities disempowered individual actors and prevented nursing homes from taking sensible precautions.

It’s almost absurd to look at New York’s pandemic plan and declare it superior to Sweden’s, yet many in the intellectual class will continue to hammer away at Sweden while ignoring the catastrophic numbers in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and other states.

Bylines: The Washington Times, MSN.com, The Washington Examiner, The Daily Caller, The Federalist, the Epoch Times.

[vy65]

Here’s an Atlantic article that’s the support to Darrin’s YouTube

Tl;dr virus’ affect on all populations is not equal or consistent. Yet most herd immunity models assume that it is. Adjusting for that, you can get models that show herd immunity achieved anywhere between 20-45%

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...rticle/614035/

[midnightpulp]

Here’s an Atlantic article that’s the support to Darrin’s YouTube

Tl;dr virus’ affect on all populations is not equal or consistent. Yet most herd immunity models assume that it is. Adjusting for that, you can get models that show herd immunity achieved anywhere between 20-45%

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...rticle/614035/

Yep. Epidemiologists have been saying that we can control the herd immunity threshold through the typical mitigation strategies, but what might be 20% for a well behaved, well organized, first world country that follows the science will probably be much higher for a country filled with spoiled children who will pull guns on other people who suggest they wear a mask.

[midnightpulp]

Bylines: The Washington Times, MSN.com, The Washington Examiner, The Daily Caller, The Federalist, the Epoch Times.

These idiots are just blowing in the wind now. The data is in, that's all that matters. No amount of words can change this:


tholdren's claim is that these countries don't count deaths the same. Lol. Then he needs to shw his math proving so.

[ChumpDumper]

These idiots are just blowing in the wind now. The data is in, that's all that matters. No amount of words can change this:


tholdren's claim is that these countries don't count deaths the same. Lol. Then he needs to shw his math proving so.

To my knowledge Goebbels never wrote about a pandemic but as far as denying reality and scapegoating internal enemies go, Team Trump is doing him proud.

[vy65]

Yep. Epidemiologists have been saying that we can control the herd immunity threshold through the typical mitigation strategies, but what might be 20% for a well behaved, well organized, first world country that follows the science will probably be much higher for a country filled with spoiled children who will pull guns on other people who suggest they wear a mask.

To think, we could start having nice things again in the near term if everyone just wore a mask ...

[Blake]

You're a bit of a drama queen. Outliers aren't the norm.

Explain in your own feels what the "norm" is, DrunkenS

[Blake]

This is good.

"Local public health officials will be able to keep Texas schools closed for in-person instruction this fall without risking state education funding, a Texas Education Agency spokesperson confirmed to The Texas Tribune on Wednesday...."

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07...public-health/

[RandomGuy]

Zdogg is one of my favs.

[RandomGuy]

Bylines: The Washington Times, MSN.com, The Washington Examiner, The Daily Caller, The Federalist, the Epoch Times.

Mises

Mises is the cousin in the attic drooling on himself in the family of economists.

[RandomGuy]

Here’s an Atlantic article that’s the support to Darrin’s YouTube

Tl;dr virus’ affect on all populations is not equal or consistent. Yet most herd immunity models assume that it is. Adjusting for that, you can get models that show herd immunity achieved anywhere between 20-45%

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...rticle/614035/

Eyup. There are some decent studies that suggest herd immunity can be fairly low.

Assuming:

1.you have vaccines...

and

2.people are disciplined enough to distance

and

3. wear masks,

and

4. herd immunity is possible with this disease, which is unknown and uncertain at this point.

#1 is certain, and #4 will be known eventually. two and three... I do not see happening because of the toddler in chief.

[Blake]

"In another blow to ‘herd immunity,’ study shows decline of COVID-19 antibodies after a few weeks.."

https://www.foxtv.com/news/in-anothe...er-a-few-weeks

[DarrinS]

"In another blow to ‘herd immunity,’ study shows decline of COVID-19 antibodies after a few weeks.."

https://www.foxtv.com/news/in-anothe...er-a-few-weeks

T-cells, Debbie Downer

[Blake]

"....we waste critical time with this pointless discussion, because the facts are already quite clear: herd immunity will likely never be achieved for Covid-19 or any other coronavirus. We know this thanks to new research on the development and decline of Covid antibodies and from a wealth of epidemiological evidence on coronaviruses as a whole......

......The body's T cell response may also be an important factor for immunity, but it won't be the answer. T cells help our immune system by killing off infected cells and activating other immune cells to fight off the infection. We know people make robust and sometimes long-lasting T cell responses to cold causing coronaviruses.

However important the T cell response may be in clearing infection, it is clear that it does not prevent reinfection, which occurs regularly with the more common coronaviruses......"

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/13/opini...ine/index.html

Editor's Note: (William Haseltine, PhD, is chair and president of the global health think tank, ACCESS Health International. He is author of numerous books, including the recently released, "A Family Guide to COVID-19: Questions and Answers for Parents, Grandparents and Children."

[RandomGuy]

This virus is tough, but Texas is tougher

That doesn't, explain the e, chicken .

The magic invisible hurricane you think that hit tTexas while no one was looking.



or maybe you think it is magic bible unicorns.

"Durr dee durr, I'm Snakeboy, and all those thousands of dead people that died from a flu-like illness in the middle of a pandemic were killed by an invisible tornado and forest fire and not the pandemic, that is a pure coincidence, because that would make Republicans look bad."

[Blake]

"mid-June, the number of patients in the Covid unit at DHR’s McAllen hospital jumped from five to 88 in four days, physicians said. The hospital now has 191 Covid patients and is rushing to add 170 more beds by next month as it converts space in existing buildings and brings in more staff. The county overall has over 800 Covid patients in hospitals and is trying to find support for an emergency temporary hospital, officials said.

Dr. Melendez, 60, the son of a doctor, grew up in McAllen. A former Army surgeon who served in Iraq, he was appointed the county’s top health director in the early 2000s. He coordinates the health response between the county’s 22 cities and all local hospitals. He also treats his own patients, including those diagnosed with Covid, even though ongoing problems from a tumor on his heart put him at high risk if he caught the virus.

Frustration set in as Dr. Melendez watched the state open more quickly than he thought prudent. As control over restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of infection was wrested from local en ies, he saw residents go back to happily socializing. Although he considers himself a Republican, like Mr. Abbott, he believes the jump in numbers came from disregarding strategies that were working. Mr. Abbott has said he is following the advice of medical professionals, and has since rolled back the state’s reopening.

When he caught Covid last month, Dr. Melendez was fortunate to have a mild case, marked by extreme tiredness and some shortness of breath, he said. But the ongoing exhaustion and stress from the steep death toll are taking a toll. “I cry every day,” he said...."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-texa...ay-11594891801

[SnakeBoy]

The magic invisible hurricane you think that hit tTexas while no one was looking.

lol you're the one saying there was an invisible hurricane. I'm saying there wasn't.

[RandomGuy]

"mid-June, the number of patients in the Covid unit at DHR’s McAllen hospital jumped from five to 88 in four days, physicians said. The hospital now has 191 Covid patients and is rushing to add 170 more beds by next month as it converts space in existing buildings and brings in more staff. The county overall has over 800 Covid patients in hospitals and is trying to find support for an emergency temporary hospital, officials said.

Dr. Melendez, 60, the son of a doctor, grew up in McAllen. A former Army surgeon who served in Iraq, he was appointed the county’s top health director in the early 2000s. He coordinates the health response between the county’s 22 cities and all local hospitals. He also treats his own patients, including those diagnosed with Covid, even though ongoing problems from a tumor on his heart put him at high risk if he caught the virus.

Frustration set in as Dr. Melendez watched the state open more quickly than he thought prudent. As control over restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of infection was wrested from local en ies, he saw residents go back to happily socializing. Although he considers himself a Republican, like Mr. Abbott, he believes the jump in numbers came from disregarding strategies that were working. Mr. Abbott has said he is following the advice of medical professionals, and has since rolled back the state’s reopening.

When he caught Covid last month, Dr. Melendez was fortunate to have a mild case, marked by extreme tiredness and some shortness of breath, he said. But the ongoing exhaustion and stress from the steep death toll are taking a toll. “I cry every day,” he said...."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-texa...ay-11594891801

These are the people have have to deal with Republican policy failures. anti-science idiot Republicans pushing for ed anti-science policies, and it is the doctors and nurses who the same s say are "heroes" that have to deal with those failures.

[RandomGuy]

lol you're the one saying there was an invisible hurricane. I'm saying there wasn't.

Explain the e. I don't know what your pea-brain thinks is causing these deaths. Please go ahead, moron. wow the class with your geenyus.

[TSA]

"mid-June, the number of patients in the Covid unit at DHR’s McAllen hospital jumped from five to 88 in four days, physicians said. The hospital now has 191 Covid patients and is rushing to add 170 more beds by next month as it converts space in existing buildings and brings in more staff. The county overall has over 800 Covid patients in hospitals and is trying to find support for an emergency temporary hospital, officials said.

Dr. Melendez, 60, the son of a doctor, grew up in McAllen. A former Army surgeon who served in Iraq, he was appointed the county’s top health director in the early 2000s. He coordinates the health response between the county’s 22 cities and all local hospitals. He also treats his own patients, including those diagnosed with Covid, even though ongoing problems from a tumor on his heart put him at high risk if he caught the virus.

Frustration set in as Dr. Melendez watched the state open more quickly than he thought prudent. As control over restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of infection was wrested from local en ies, he saw residents go back to happily socializing. Although he considers himself a Republican, like Mr. Abbott, he believes the jump in numbers came from disregarding strategies that were working. Mr. Abbott has said he is following the advice of medical professionals, and has since rolled back the state’s reopening.

When he caught Covid last month, Dr. Melendez was fortunate to have a mild case, marked by extreme tiredness and some shortness of breath, he said. But the ongoing exhaustion and stress from the steep death toll are taking a toll. “I cry every day,” he said...."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-texa...ay-11594891801

Border town es are coming from US citizens/green card holders crossing from Mexico to work in the produce fields or seek better medical care in the US. Same es are happening in California and Arizona border towns.

[midnightpulp]

Border town es are coming from US citizens/green card holders crossing from Mexico to work in the produce fields or seek better medical care in the US. Same es are happening in California and Arizona border towns.

Hmmm, presumably the produce fields are most viable in the Spring (and farming is essential, so these migrant workers were working the fields then). Why didn't these border town es occur then? AZ, TX, and CA were really crushing the curve in the Spring. Seems like another excuse to try and claim reopening wasn't the central reason for the new es.

[Blake]

Border town es are coming from US citizens/green card holders crossing from Mexico to work in the produce fields or seek better medical care in the US. Same es are happening in California and Arizona border towns.

They were managing until Abbott opened everything up a and told cities they can't enforce mask requirements.

[TSA]

Hmmm, presumably the produce fields are most viable in the Spring (and farming is essential, so these migrant workers were working the fields then). Why didn't these border town es occur then? AZ, TX, and CA were really crushing the curve in the Spring. Seems like another excuse to try and claim reopening wasn't the central reason for the new es.

Border town es are coming from US citizens/green card holders crossing from Mexico to work in the produce fields or seek better medical care in the US. Same es are happening in California and Arizona border towns.

[RandomGuy]

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/T...CountData.xlsx

Ten day moving average fatality rate of just confirmed (excluding probable) fatalities:

6-15, -------- 20 per day.
7-1,---------- 30 per day
7-15---------- 80 per day.

This is what the ed Republican state government is reporting as its official number, hiding the "probable" cases that morons like Snakeboy think are due to magic tornadoes killing people by the thousands without anyone noticing.

[RandomGuy]

Border town es are coming from US citizens/green card holders crossing from Mexico to work in the produce fields or seek better medical care in the US. Same es are happening in California and Arizona border towns.

Maybe you want to explain the e. Are we under-reporting fatalities here in Texas?