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  1. #2501
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    f5 2 seconds after I post and you claim not to be triggered. Lol your math


    Hospitals lol


    Daily cases



    Lol
    instant deflection

    Why don't you show your math?

  2. #2502
    Believe.
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    instant deflection

    Why don't you show your math?
    Because I asked you first

  3. #2503
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Let's show some math. You can estimate true infection rate by looking at seroprevalence. Arizona is at 3.4% prevalence right now.

    https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/e...ards/index.php

    Their low prevalence rate explains why their new case positive rate is so high. Not that many have gotten the virus in AZ until now. So:

    7 million x 3.4%=238000

    Arizona's official case number is 101,000. So Arizona's "true" spread is about 2.3x higher than the official tally. This number seems reasonable given the low prevalence. Now let's extract the IFR from that number.

    1810/238000 = .007. About 7x higher than the flu's IFR.

    thlden
    From what I have read and thought about the best way to get the "True" number of cases is to simply take the death total and divide it by the estimated mortality rate, somewhere in the neighorhood of .005

    "If X number of people died, and the rate of death for all people who get it is Y, how many people would have had the disease to produce X deaths?"

    That tells you the rough number of cases about two weeks ago, since the course of the disease is about two weeks from contracting it to death in almost all cases.

    Then take the growth rate and multiply that figure by the rate twice (figure transmission takes about 7 days) to find a reasonable estimate for the total cases current and past. https://rt.live/ gets you that multiplier to some degree of reasonableness.

    A lot of estimation, but you get a fairly reasonable working number.

  4. #2504
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  5. #2505
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Because I asked you first
    I never said I calculated IFR using a super secret formula like you did.

    Show your math.

  6. #2506
    Chunky Brazil's Avatar
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    Is this guy a troll, real talk?
    I don't think so tbh.. he is that re ed.. it's ducks kind of stupidity imho

  7. #2507
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    Get in here Thread, we have gone up almost a thousand since yesterday!

    Update (07 July 2020):::

    Trump's Corona Plague dead: 133,929
    Regular Flu dead: 23+k
    Spanish Flu dead: 275k
    Obama's H1N1 Flu dead: 12.5k

    Let us proceed...

  8. #2508
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    most single-day deaths since june 10, per worldometer. just under 1000

    goes without saying that this is not necessarily indicative of a trend and may just be a blip, but we are fairly within the range of time where the increase would typically be expected

  9. #2509
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    200k carcasses my election day is the latest model tbqh

    Pretty conservative if you as me

    Given how americans treat the holidays during pandemics my prediction of 1/2 million dead by next year is looking very good

  10. #2510
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    most single-day deaths since june 10, per worldometer. just under 1000

    goes without saying that this is not necessarily indicative of a trend and may just be a blip, but we are fairly within the range of time where the increase would typically be expected
    Most of the steep increases started around the 7 day period between June 16th and June 23rd, so we should clearly see the rise in deaths about 5 to 10 days from now.

  11. #2511
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Most of the steep increases started around the 7 day period between June 16th and June 23rd, so we should clearly see the rise in deaths about 5 to 10 days from now.
    thats based on a 25 day timer that starts from infection. unless you know that all these people tested positive literally the day they had the infection (as opposed to when they became symptomatic), then im not sure you can push the timetable quite that far back.

    but thats just my basic intuition... not an expert obviously. i'd welcome being corrected

  12. #2512
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    thats based on a 25 day timer that starts from infection. unless you know that all these people tested positive literally the day they had the infection (as opposed to when they became symptomatic), then im not sure you can push the timetable quite that far back.

    but thats just my basic intuition... not an expert obviously. i'd welcome being corrected
    Give or take 25 days. We can say 3 to 4 weeks? Nonetheless, we won't be able to start seeing a clear trend for at least a few more days.

  13. #2513
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Give or take 25 days. We can say 3 to 4 weeks? Nonetheless, we won't be able to start seeing a clear trend for at least a few more days.
    it all depends at what point in the infection cycle the influx of new cases were identified, tbh. but i generally agree that we are still in a bubble, margin of error, zone

  14. #2514
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    I think the interesting question is what if there isn’t some massive e in deaths? To me, that begs a lot of harder but more interesting questions. Assume that the mortality rate remains largely unaffected (meaning, it continues to drop) or has a modest uptick (meaning it goes flat or slightly upward). What does that mean going forward? I think some really tough policy decisions will have to be made at that point about continuing to re-open the economy or not.

    And for the record, I’m not saying the fatality rate will or won’t change or that COVID is not something serious (since I know some will think I’m implying something). That said, if we can show that we’re getting more effective at treating this , that’s something.

  15. #2515
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    I think the interesting question is what if there isn’t some massive e in deaths? To me, that begs a lot of harder but more interesting questions. Assume that the mortality rate remains largely unaffected (meaning, it continues to drop) or has a modest uptick (meaning it goes flat or slightly upward). What does that mean going forward? I think some really tough policy decisions will have to be made at that point about continuing to re-open the economy or not.

    And for the record, I’m not saying the fatality rate will or won’t change or that COVID is not something serious (since I know some will think I’m implying something). That said, if we can show that we’re getting more effective at treating this , that’s something.
    those are legit questions... and the potential implications of that could be (but i cant verify or have any data for) that a higher proportion of the new wave of cases were younger people, that the virus has gotten weaker, or we've simply done better at identifying and treating it due to more available testing letting us diagnose cases earlier, on average.

    i dont have the data in front of me about hospitalization rates, etc.

    and strictly looking at mortality might not tell us the whole picture, there's still a lot we dont know about potential long term effects. we already know that the virus can sit on the heart, or on neurons, etc. how long will antibodies be effective for? there's still a lot we dont know.
    Last edited by spurraider21; 07-07-2020 at 09:10 PM.

  16. #2516
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    I think the interesting question is what if there isn’t some massive e in deaths? To me, that begs a lot of harder but more interesting questions. Assume that the mortality rate remains largely unaffected (meaning, it continues to drop) or has a modest uptick (meaning it goes flat or slightly upward). What does that mean going forward? I think some really tough policy decisions will have to be made at that point about continuing to re-open the economy or not.

    And for the record, I’m not saying the fatality rate will or won’t change or that COVID is not something serious (since I know some will think I’m implying something). That said, if we can show that we’re getting more effective at treating this , that’s something.
    Better treatments is certainly helping, but it all depends on the hospitalization rate now. If this trend continues, it won't matter what treatments we have if they can't reach people because hospitals are overwhelmed.

  17. #2517
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    Where do we see this e peaking? 65k infections per day? 70? 80? 100k? It's hard not to see the death rate going back to at least what it was before if the trend continues.

  18. #2518
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Where do we see this e peaking? 65k infections per day? 70? 80? 100k? It's hard not to see the death rate going back to at least what it was before if the trend continues.
    do we know what the positivity rate looks like now compared to the earlier es?

  19. #2519
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    do we know what the positivity rate looks like now compared to the earlier es?
    This is what bad leadership gets you. The data is incomplete because we completely bungled testing early on, but I know in Texas it was about 15% at the peak of the first wave in April. Texas was doing such little testing back then though.

  20. #2520
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    do we know what the positivity rate looks like now compared to the earlier es?
    Well it was 22% in San Antonio last week.

  21. #2521
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    This is what bad leadership gets you. The data is incomplete because we completely bungled testing early on, but I know in Texas it was about 15% at the peak of the first wave in April. Texas was doing such little testing back then though.
    Yeah it was nearly impossible to get a test early on out here unless you were 65+ and had symptoms.

  22. #2522
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    Yeah it was nearly impossible to get a test early on out here unless you were 65+ and had symptoms.
    They're returning to some of those restrictions, mainly being that you have to be symptomatic.

    And now there are so many symptomatics that people are driving to other towns to try and get a test because testing sites are running out. We're doing nearly triple the testing we had back during the first e, yet we're STILL seeing a shortage while the positivity rate fluctuates between 15% and 20%.

  23. #2523
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    do we know what the positivity rate looks like now compared to the earlier es?
    That’s another thing. The positivity rate halved in Houston (22% to 11%) in about a week.

  24. #2524
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    This is what bad leadership gets you.
    Truer words

  25. #2525
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    That’s another thing. The positivity rate halved in Houston (22% to 11%) in about a week.
    Too bad we can't stop travel between just about everywhere else where the rates are flat or still rising. People will continue to bring it in. , some may have no choice like in the RGV where they're flying in the worst patients from because they have already reached capacity.

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