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  1. #2526
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    I think the interesting question is what if there isn’t some massive e in deaths? To me, that begs a lot of harder but more interesting questions. Assume that the mortality rate remains largely unaffected (meaning, it continues to drop) or has a modest uptick (meaning it goes flat or slightly upward). What does that mean going forward? I think some really tough policy decisions will have to be made at that point about continuing to re-open the economy or not.

    And for the record, I’m not saying the fatality rate will or won’t change or that COVID is not something serious (since I know some will think I’m implying something). That said, if we can show that we’re getting more effective at treating this , that’s something.
    If the death rate is flat or slightly higher we'll open the bars back up.

  2. #2527
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    If the death rate is flat or slightly higher we'll open the bars back up.

  3. #2528
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    200k carcasses my election day is the latest model tbqh

    Pretty conservative if you as me

    Given how americans treat the holidays during pandemics my prediction of 1/2 million dead by next year is looking very good
    Somehow Halloween is going to look a lot more real this year, tbh...

  4. #2529
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    Somehow Halloween is going to look a lot more real this year, tbh...
    Im going as this tbqh


  5. #2530
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Im going as this tbqh

    Is that Dr Fldren? Nice mask to cover the pinocchio nose, tbh

  6. #2531
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    Im going as this tbqh

    IDK man, 's getting real. You might have to go as this:


  7. #2532
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    I think the interesting question is what if there isn’t some massive e in deaths? To me, that begs a lot of harder but more interesting questions. Assume that the mortality rate remains largely unaffected (meaning, it continues to drop) or has a modest uptick (meaning it goes flat or slightly upward). What does that mean going forward? I think some really tough policy decisions will have to be made at that point about continuing to re-open the economy or not.

    And for the record, I’m not saying the fatality rate will or won’t change or that COVID is not something serious (since I know some will think I’m implying something). That said, if we can show that we’re getting more effective at treating this , that’s something.
    We'll see, death rate seems pretty closely correlated to infection saturation.

    https://twitter.com/_stah/status/1280424841347244032

    A cautionary tale should be Iran. We seem to be on the same curve. They, too, opened up early. You can see their case curve pretty much matches their death curve.




    The tweet above shows on a similar "double hump" trend.

    But my gut tells me we probably won't see the plateau we had when the East Coast was out of control because if hit their nursing homes hard, and we're more aware of protecting those now. None of the other vulnerable, ing states right now have the kind of population density and mass transit elements of the East Coast. And we seem to understand how to better treat it. I think we might inch close to a 2K death day in a couple of weeks, and then it will start to roll off a bit quicker than our first plateau.

    Now the question remains about reopening. I don't know. We are probably finally at the point where the cure could be worse than disease, but if the moron "shutdown" skeptics and the politicians who listen to them took heed in March and shut the country down hard, we'd be looking at Europe's curve today.

  8. #2533
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    Okay, guys. I'm getting worried about Cub.

  9. #2534
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    most single-day deaths since june 10, per worldometer. just under 1000

    goes without saying that this is not necessarily indicative of a trend and may just be a blip, but we are fairly within the range of time where the increase would typically be expected
    Eyup. See the evidence from Iran in midnightpulps really good thread. Two to three week lag after a e in cases. As I have been saying all along.

  10. #2535
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Better treatments is certainly helping, but it all depends on the hospitalization rate now. If this trend continues, it won't matter what treatments we have if they can't reach people because hospitals are overwhelmed.
    We are on track for that. That is why I am not going to take ANY ing risks at all. If you catch it here in the next few days, you will be in the wave that gets sick at the time the hospitals will be full, and your risk of dying skyrockets.

    Repbulicans, and their stupid ing policies that led to this.

  11. #2536
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    I think the interesting question is what if there isn’t some massive e in deaths? To me, that begs a lot of harder but more interesting questions. Assume that the mortality rate remains largely unaffected (meaning, it continues to drop) or has a modest uptick (meaning it goes flat or slightly upward). What does that mean going forward? I think some really tough policy decisions will have to be made at that point about continuing to re-open the economy or not.

    And for the record, I’m not saying the fatality rate will or won’t change or that COVID is not something serious (since I know some will think I’m implying something). That said, if we can show that we’re getting more effective at treating this , that’s something.
    Deaths lag cases by two to three weeks. We have gotten better treatments, but even so you can't have four times the number of cases and not have more deaths.

    It is coming, despite morons like fldren saying otherwise.

  12. #2537
    Believe.
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    Lol RandomGuy now 3 weeks. Bwahhahahahhahahahahhahahahahahahhahaj

    He's wrong every time

  13. #2538
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    Okay, guys. I'm getting worried about Cub.
    Thread is just chicken ting. It's his religion.

    Last Activity: 1 Day Ago

  14. #2539
    VanillaPlayerFan BD24's Avatar
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    A lot of the industrialized world has seen a big decline and are opening back up.

    America still in the because of Orange Mans poor leadership

    Bigly sad

  15. #2540
    Veteran
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    America still in the because of Orange Mans poor leadership
    Trash

    AND

    Repugs pols at all levels and right wing hate media.

    All the people who have been Trumpists for decades and will continue long after Trash is out of office.

    Trump didn't create Trumpism, he (with help from Steve Bannon, etc) exploited it.

  16. #2541
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    Okay, guys. I'm getting worried about Cub.
    Hes in Az right? They have less than 130 ICU beds available in the whole state as of today.

    Hopefully he is not sharing a ventilator with 3 other guys tbqh

  17. #2542
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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  18. #2543
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    RIP thread tbqh


  19. #2544
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  20. #2545
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    RIP thread tbqh

    Sarah Palin of all people warned us about this, tbh

  21. #2546
    Believe.
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    Sarah Palin of all people warned us about this, tbh
    fakenews headlines ruling again

  22. #2547
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    Update (08 July 2020):::

    Trump's Corona Plague dead: 134,816
    Regular Flu dead: 23+k
    Spanish Flu dead: 275k
    Obama's H1N1 Flu dead: 12.5k

    Let us proceed...

  23. #2548
    Believe.
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    Update (08 July 2020):::

    Trump's Corona Plague dead: 134,816
    Regular Flu dead: 23+k
    Spanish Flu dead: 275k
    Obama's H1N1 Flu dead: 12.5k

    Let us proceed...
    Headline chasing

  24. #2549
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    fakenews headlines ruling again
    Point out the fake parts:

    https://azdhs.gov/do ents/prepared...9-addendum.pdf

  25. #2550
    Believe.
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    Lol you dont even know what that says. LolololoIklokkklok

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