Even if I thought you'd actually pay out, that wouldn't make the bet worth it. If I think there's a 1/100 shot and you give me 100-1 odds, the best I could do is break even (assuming my estimate is accurate). You should only bet when you think your odds are better than the betting odds. Congratulations, you still fail at probability.
How about instead of acting like a tough guy, you explain the math behind your 1/4000 odds or admit they're wrong? And again, you throw enough crap at the wall, some of it sticks. Stop bragging about a couple lucky picks, you've been wrong plenty of times.