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  1. #1
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Holy I'm getting sick of the "Sweden argument" from the anti-lockdown crowd on the hole known as twitter. Conservative media is also on the Sweden bandwagon. Let's take it apart.

    "Sweden proves lockdowns don't really work, and they haven't torpedoed their economy based on faulty models and wrong assumptions about the virus's mortality rate."

    Sweden is not "business as usual."

    They can't have events with more than 50 people. School closures for over 16. And even though their stay-at-home orders aren't as stringent as everyone else's, the Swedish have voluntary stayed-at-home. Here's their movement data.

    https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobi..._Report_en.pdf

    Key figure here is the -41% in retail and recreation. That is only 7 percentage points lower than California's https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobi..._Report_en.pdf.

    What this means is that Sweden's lax measures aren't doing much to prop up the hardest hit economic sectors (your bars, restaurants, clubs, theaters) because people aren't too keen on going to those right now. So "the Swedish Model" isn't going to help with that if we stupidly try to apply it here.

    "We should apply the Swedish model to save the economy, as they've proven you can have an open economy and mitigate spread."

    Sweden hasn't "mitigated" the spread at all. Let's return to that above movement data from them and California. California is socially distancing a bit more, but given the exponential nature of epidemic growth, that 41% vs. 48% figure in retail/recreation movement and 24% vs, 40% in workplace movement has proven huge. California has 4 times the population of Sweden, 5 times the population density, more multi-person homes (Sweden has one of the highest rates of single person homes in Europe), more international travel, and CA's death rate is 37 per million vs. Sweden's 192 million.

    "Other Euro countries have locked down and are doing worse than Sweden."

    Countries like the Netherlands and Belgium have not locked down, with the former going for the herd immunity strategy. Not working out too well for them. And many of those other hard hit regions in Europe are suffering because they were late to lockdown. And the UK went for the herd immunity strategy early on and is on pace to become the hardest hit country in Europe.

    That said, I won't argue if the Swedish strategy works for Sweden. But the supporters of that strategy are making the apples to oranges comparison fallacy. Sweden's population density is 57 people per sq mile. That's lower than Utah's, a sparse state. 50 percent of their working population already worked from home before this. They have more single person households. I would assume the average Swede is in better physical shape than the average American. They have no cities with over 1 million people. They have some things in their favor that they can try this strategy that many US regions don't. It might work on a very region specific basis, but not countrywide. And it has no hope in of working in densely populated areas.

  2. #2
    Believe.
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    Sweden is not the worst case, look at Belgium, they have 560 dead on one million, compared to usa with 144. That is 180k to 200k dead in usa. So no, that is wrong way to go.

  3. #3
    5X ST MVP Spurtacular's Avatar
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    Sweden's a cold weather region and California's a warm weather region.
    Now compare Sweden to New York. Yea, that's what I thought.

  4. #4
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Sweden's a cold weather region and California's a warm weather region.
    Now compare Sweden to New York. Yea, that's what I thought.
    Compare Sweden to Norway and Finland.

  5. #5
    5X ST MVP Spurtacular's Avatar
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    Compare Sweden to Norway and Finland.
    Are we taking away the nursing home deaths for which Sweden had severe outbreaks?

  6. #6
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Sweden's a cold weather region and California's a warm weather region.
    Now compare Sweden to New York. Yea, that's what I thought.
    We still don't know for sure how warm weather and UV light affects transmission. And that is CA's ONLY inherent advantage vs. Sweden. Sweden has all the others with regard to pop density, working life, health of citizens, etc.

  7. #7
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    Sweden is not the worst case, look at Belgium, they have 560 dead on one million, compared to usa with 144. That is 180k to 200k dead in usa. So no, that is wrong way to go.
    have u been to belgium. its population density is ed

    sweden is the opposite

  8. #8
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Are we taking away the nursing home deaths for which Sweden had severe outbreaks?
    derp folds

  9. #9
    Read the whirlwind RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Holy I'm getting sick of the "Sweden argument" from the anti-lockdown crowd on the hole known as twitter. Conservative media is also on the Sweden bandwagon. Let's take it apart.

    "Sweden proves lockdowns don't really work, and they haven't torpedoed their economy based on faulty models and wrong assumptions about the virus's mortality rate."

    Sweden is not "business as usual."

    They can't have events with more than 50 people. School closures for over 16. And even though their stay-at-home orders aren't as stringent as everyone else's, the Swedish have voluntary stayed-at-home. Here's their movement data.

    https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobi..._Report_en.pdf

    Key figure here is the -41% in retail and recreation. That is only 7 percentage points lower than California's https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobi..._Report_en.pdf.

    What this means is that Sweden's lax measures aren't doing much to prop up the hardest hit economic sectors (your bars, restaurants, clubs, theaters) because people aren't too keen on going to those right now. So "the Swedish Model" isn't going to help with that if we stupidly try to apply it here.

    "We should apply the Swedish model to save the economy, as they've proven you can have an open economy and mitigate spread."

    Sweden hasn't "mitigated" the spread at all. Let's return to that above movement data from them and California. California is socially distancing a bit more, but given the exponential nature of epidemic growth, that 41% vs. 48% figure in retail/recreation movement and 24% vs, 40% in workplace movement has proven huge. California has 4 times the population of Sweden, 5 times the population density, more multi-person homes (Sweden has one of the highest rates of single person homes in Europe), more international travel, and CA's death rate is 37 per million vs. Sweden's 192 million.

    "Other Euro countries have locked down and are doing worse than Sweden."

    Countries like the Netherlands and Belgium have not locked down, with the former going for the herd immunity strategy. Not working out too well for them. And many of those other hard hit regions in Europe are suffering because they were late to lockdown. And the UK went for the herd immunity strategy early on and is on pace to become the hardest hit country in Europe.

    That said, I won't argue if the Swedish strategy works for Sweden. But the supporters of that strategy are making the apples to oranges comparison fallacy. Sweden's population density is 57 people per sq mile. That's lower than Utah's, a sparse state. 50 percent of their working population already worked from home before this. They have more single person households. I would assume the average Swede is in better physical shape than the average American. They have no cities with over 1 million people. They have some things in their favor that they can try this strategy that many US regions don't. It might work on a very region specific basis, but not countrywide. And it has no hope in of working in densely populated areas.
    All you have to do is start comparing Sweden to its neighbors. Higher and faster infection rate, with the inexorable higher death toll per capita.

    Entirely predictable.

    Looks like the jury has come back for even brainwashed morons like TSA

  10. #10
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Are we taking away the nursing home deaths for which Sweden had severe outbreaks?
    Fatalities are fatalities.

    Why should they be "taken away"?

  11. #11
    Read the whirlwind RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Sweden's a cold weather region and California's a warm weather region.
    Now compare Sweden to New York. Yea, that's what I thought.
    New York has a farther southern la ude, you ing moron.

    https://www.travelmath.com/cities/New+York,+NY

    The la ude and longitude of New York, New York is:
    40 42' 51" N / 74 0' 23" W

    Stockholm, Sweden
    La ude and longitude coordinates are: 59 20' 4.5276'' N, 18 3' 47.6640'' E


    Cherry pick fail.

    Last edited by RandomGuy; 04-23-2020 at 08:23 AM.

  12. #12
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    All you have to do is start comparing Sweden to its neighbors. Higher and faster infection rate, with the inexorable higher death toll per capita.

    Entirely predictable.

    Looks like the jury has come back for even brainwashed morons like TSA
    Doubt that will matter. TSA is still pushing hydroxychloroquine despite every single anecdote coming out now saying it's killing more patients than it's saving.

  13. #13
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    New York has a farther southern la ude, you ing moron.

    https://www.travelmath.com/cities/New+York,+NY

    The la ude and longitude of New York, New York is:
    40 42' 51" N / 74 0' 23" W

    Stockholm, Sweden
    La ude and longitude coordinates are: 59 20' 4.5276'' N, 18 3' 47.6640'' E


    Cherry pick fail.


  14. #14
    Read the whirlwind RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Sweden's a cold weather region and California's a warm weather region.
    Now compare Sweden to New York. Yea, that's what I thought.
    So setting aside your comically bad ignorance of basic geography, let's compare to peers, so that we can actually do some critical thinking for your lazy ass.

    Total confirmed cases 16,755
    Total deaths 2,021
    7,275 positive cases
    187 people now confirmed dead.
    Total confirmed cases 4170
    Total deaths 149
    Sweden 10 M people
    Finland 5.53M
    Norway 5.4M

    Since you are too ing stupid to understand how to compare things, let me explain the math. I'll try to use small words.

    Total cases really are practically meaningless.
    What is more important is rate of infection per million people.

    I will even do the math for you.
    Norway:
    7275/5.4M =1347
    187/5.4M =34

    Finland
    4170/5.3M= 786
    149/5.3M =28

    Sweden
    16755/10M= 1676
    2021/10M= 202

    Sweden has a higher infection rate, and its fatality rate is more than SIX TIMES higher than it's peers.

  15. #15
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    So setting aside your comically bad ignorance of basic geography, let's compare to peers, so that we can actually do some critical thinking for your lazy ass.







    Sweden 10 M people
    Finland 5.53M
    Norway 5.4M

    Since you are too ing stupid to understand how to compare things, let me explain the math. I'll try to use small words.

    Total cases really are practically meaningless.
    What is more important is rate of infection per million people.

    I will even do the math for you.
    Norway:
    7275/5.4M =1347
    187/5.4M =34

    Finland
    4170/5.3M= 786
    149/5.3M =28

    Sweden
    16755/10M= 1676
    2021/10M= 202

    Sweden has a higher infection rate, and its fatality rate is more than SIX TIMES higher than it's peers.
    A nitpick and subsequent deflection coupled with an ad-hominem coming soon.

  16. #16
    Read the whirlwind RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Doubt that will matter. TSA is still pushing hydroxychloroquine despite every single anecdote coming out now saying it's killing more patients than it's saving.
    Brainwashed morons will be brainwashed morons. He is deep into the cult lore, and will not find his way out for years, if ever. Qanon, Trump is a secret genius, and whatever else conspiracy theory he thinks he needs for his self-esteem.

  17. #17
    Read the whirlwind RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Fatalities are fatalities.

    Why should they be "taken away"?
    They shouldn't be. You don't get nursing home clusters if you don't have it widespread enough to infect caregivers. Isolating that from the data is impractical anyways IFAIK.

  18. #18
    [email protected] David Hogg's Avatar
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    Are we taking away the nursing home deaths for which Sweden had severe outbreaks?


    ”I WIN!!!!!...........................if you take away the stats that make me lose

  19. #19
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    this site tracks deaths in europe its still too soon to see the effects of coronavirus but you can definitely see the start of an anomaly in the graph compared to previous years

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

    I think in about a month, this graph will be very useful to point out to the idiots that think this is a hoax

    note that Sweden excess deaths are almost on par with UK, Spain, Italy tbqh

  20. #20
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    this site tracks deaths in europe its still too soon to see the effects of coronavirus but you can definitely see the start of an anomaly in the graph compared to previous years

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

    I think in about a month, this graph will be very useful to point out to the idiots that think this is a hoax

    note that Sweden excess deaths are almost on par with UK, Spain, Italy tbqh
    Illuminating stuff. Seems the usual death count in Europe for Week 15 is around 50K. It was 73K this year, and with social distancing/lockdowns. That should concern anyone.

  21. #21
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
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    All you have to do is start comparing Sweden to its neighbors. Higher and faster infection rate, with the inexorable higher death toll per capita.

    Entirely predictable.

    Looks like the jury has come back for even brainwashed morons like TSA
    Making a comparison now is pretty pointless as we'll only see if Sweden's strategy worked if a second wave hits it's neighbors and Sweden avoids it.

  22. #22
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Sweden also has a much better health care system (than we do; Thanks Donald for lying to us) so they were willing to try knowing they would not overwhelm hospitals.
    Last edited by pgardn; 04-23-2020 at 09:44 AM.

  23. #23
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Making a comparison now is pretty pointless as we'll only see if Sweden's strategy worked if a second wave hits it's neighbors and Sweden avoids it.
    True.
    Sweden could have a second wave as well.
    I don’t think they know what % Of the country has immunity (assumes one can’t get it a second time)
    This thing is not over for any part of the world.

  24. #24
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Making a comparison now is pretty pointless as we'll only see if Sweden's strategy worked if a second wave hits it's neighbors and Sweden avoids it.
    They'll have a second wave. Swedes just aren't willy-nilly going about business in an effort to fast track herd immunity. They aren't on stay-at-home orders, but most have restricted their movement as if they were. Point is, the Swedish strategy might be nominally different, but it isn't actually different by that much. I emphasize by that much because that additional measure of freedom they have has resulted in Sweden having slightly higher retail/recreation and workplace mobility than their Norwegian neighbors for instance, but a much higher death rate (200 per million vs. 35 per million). Keeping that small a percentage more people at home really doesn't translate into big gains on mitigating death. We've all seen that popular gif where 4 people staying at home curbs the spreads by a huge factor.

    This tells me Sweden's waves will be worse than others. They're not interacting enough to achieve herd immunity and not staying home enough to mitigate death all that much.

  25. #25
    Read the whirlwind RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Making a comparison now is pretty pointless as we'll only see if Sweden's strategy worked if a second wave hits it's neighbors and Sweden avoids it.


    #goalpostmove.gif

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