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  1. #1
    #AllLivesMatter® Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    Nice little tropical storm for mid May. Harbinger of an active year, usually we don't see a 60mph TS threatening CONUS land before the official start of the season on June 1st.



    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 17/1500Z 30.5N 77.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
    12H 18/0000Z 32.0N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 18/1200Z 34.3N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
    36H 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
    48H 19/1200Z 37.3N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    60H 20/0000Z 37.1N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 20/1200Z 36.5N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 21/1200Z 35.5N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

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  2. #2
    #AllLivesMatter® Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    3 days into hurricane season and we're already on our 3rd tropical storm, 3rd potential US tropical cyclone and it's barely early June. 2020 continues to get weirder.



    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 03/1500Z 18.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
    12H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
    24H 04/1200Z 18.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
    36H 05/0000Z 18.9N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    48H 05/1200Z 20.0N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
    60H 06/0000Z 21.5N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
    72H 06/1200Z 23.5N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
    96H 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
    120H 08/1200Z 31.0N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

  3. #3
    #AllLivesMatter® Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    I'd say the forecast is way too conservative, BUT it is early June and the subtropical jet stream normally isn't so favorable this early in the season for, say, a major hurricane, which would normally be the case in such a track and scenario. Above average sea surface temps across the Gulf, and most of the Atlantic basin in general:


  4. #4
    #AllLivesMatter® Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    70mph TS at landfall is a likelihood; however, the disparity of the time to landfall between the forecast points gives it wiggle room for intensification into a weak hurricane before landfall in Louisiana, which would be pretty unprecedented for early June.

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