Right, because I’m sure you know sooooo many people from Iowa :
You didn’t address the fact that Iowa votes in favor of Democrats in 2018, there were clearly 2016 Trump voters who flipped back. If it’s the same political climate again in 2020 that election is a coin toss.
There’s a poll conducted in May on fivethirtyeight that has Gideon up 9 points. The big difference with Collins is that there Karens don’t like her anymore after Kavanaugh and the impeachment vote. Not voting for Trumps impeachment was a strategical gaffe by her, it would have meant nothing but moderates would have fawned over it.