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  1. #1
    bandwagoner fans suck ducks's Avatar
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  2. #2
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    so not a medical guy, former pastor, on a website called "liberty counsel" which has a nice anti-vax banner near the top, says the numbers arent what they seem

    ok!

  3. #3
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
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    so not a medical guy, former pastor, on a website called "liberty counsel" which has a nice anti-vax banner near the top, says the numbers arent what they seem

    ok!
    First claim checked out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ted-officials/

    Not going through any more but not sure why some of you are so quick to dismiss articles like this without doing the slightest bit of research.

  4. #4
    6X ST MVP
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    Drive-through testing.
    Serious stuff obviously.

  5. #5
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    First claim checked out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ted-officials/

    Not going through any more but not sure why some of you are so quick to dismiss articles like this without doing the slightest bit of research.
    checks out... in the UK?

    they then claim it's happening in the US as well. they bring up the fact that 30 some thousand cases in florida may have gotten incorrect results. those arent all false positives. wheres the breakdown of what those test results were? are all those test results currently part of their official figures? i dont know off hand, but the article doesnt substantiate it

    i found this article on the subject which indicates that a lot of these people were told they need retesting, but i dont see anything that says these are part of their current numbers. everything i've read so far has suggested that the state has deemed the tests unreliable or could not be processed

    https://www.wfla.com/community/healt...nthealth-says/
    Last edited by spurraider21; 07-01-2020 at 10:07 PM.

  6. #6
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    First claim checked out.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ted-officials/

    Not going through any more but not sure why some of you are so quick to dismiss articles like this without doing the slightest bit of research.
    Because these facts are usually cherry-picked out of confirmation bias in order to try and downplay the virus. I welcomed the point-of-view of Ginn, Berenson, etc early on, but they've been flatout proven wrong. Yet they continue to double-down and goal post move because it's obvious they have an agenda (Ginn, Hart are Libertarians) and have books to sell (Berenson). I think the key stat that cuts through all the noise is the CDC's flu view, which tracks the percentage of people going to the hospital for Influenza Like Illnesses. We can see here that by week 12 (April), the flu usually dies out, with around 2.5 percent of ILI related visits. Week 12 of this year saw that percentage at 6.4%. A 150 percent increase over the worst flu season in recent years (2018). And that was despite our social distancing, sheltering in place, and all the other measures we took to contain spread. We can see in that stats that those measures worked, since the week 12 trajectory was trending sharply upwards (vs. the smooth bell curve roll off we see in flu seasons).




    And yes, cases are ing again, leading to increases in hospitalizations and positive rate. We have no idea how likely an exponential explosions really is (wrt to death count), because presumably more younger people are contracting the virus, so more mild cases, but do we really want to play chicken again with the virus? Seems people still haven't grasped the exponential growth concept or are just stubbornly overconfident that "New York can't happen here/again." I agree that New York was the perfect tinder box for this thing to explode, but being even a third as bad as NY is pretty bad. Arizona is disturbingly trending that way.


  7. #7
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Because these facts are usually cherry-picked out of confirmation bias in order to try and downplay the virus. I welcomed the point-of-view of Ginn, Berenson, etc early on, but they've been flatout proven wrong. Yet they continue to double-down and goal post move because it's obvious they have an agenda (Ginn, Hart are Libertarians) and have books to sell (Berenson). I think the key stat that cuts through all the noise is the CDC's flu view, which tracks the percentage of people going to the hospital for Influenza Like Illnesses. We can see here that by week 12 (April), the flu usually dies out, with around 2.5 percent of ILI related visits. Week 12 of this year saw that percentage at 6.4%. A 150 percent increase over the worst flu season in recent years (2018). And that was despite our social distancing, sheltering in place, and all the other measures we took to contain spread. We can see in that stats that those measures worked, since the week 12 trajectory was trending sharply upwards (vs. the smooth bell curve roll off we see in flu seasons).




    And yes, cases are ing again, leading to increases in hospitalizations and positive rate. We have no idea how likely an exponential explosions really is (wrt to death count), because presumably more younger people are contracting the virus, so more mild cases, but do we really want to play chicken again with the virus? Seems people still haven't grasped the exponential growth concept or are just stubbornly overconfident that "New York can't happen here/again." I agree that New York was the perfect tinder box for this thing to explode, but being even a third as bad as NY is pretty bad. Arizona is disturbingly trending that way.

    None of your charts say Gummi Bear though.

  8. #8
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
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    Because these facts are usually cherry-picked out of confirmation bias in order to try and downplay the virus. I welcomed the point-of-view of Ginn, Berenson, etc early on, but they've been flatout proven wrong. Yet they continue to double-down and goal post move because it's obvious they have an agenda (Ginn, Hart are Libertarians) and have books to sell (Berenson). I think the key stat that cuts through all the noise is the CDC's flu view, which tracks the percentage of people going to the hospital for Influenza Like Illnesses. We can see here that by week 12 (April), the flu usually dies out, with around 2.5 percent of ILI related visits. Week 12 of this year saw that percentage at 6.4%. A 150 percent increase over the worst flu season in recent years (2018). And that was despite our social distancing, sheltering in place, and all the other measures we took to contain spread. We can see in that stats that those measures worked, since the week 12 trajectory was trending sharply upwards (vs. the smooth bell curve roll off we see in flu seasons).




    And yes, cases are ing again, leading to increases in hospitalizations and positive rate. We have no idea how likely an exponential explosions really is (wrt to death count), because presumably more younger people are contracting the virus, so more mild cases, but do we really want to play chicken again with the virus? Seems people still haven't grasped the exponential growth concept or are just stubbornly overconfident that "New York can't happen here/again." I agree that New York was the perfect tinder box for this thing to explode, but being even a third as bad as NY is pretty bad. Arizona is disturbingly trending that way.

    My point was SR immediately dismissed when literally the first claim checked out. Regardless...I think you’ll find this dude interesting


  9. #9
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
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    Because these facts are usually cherry-picked out of confirmation bias in order to try and downplay the virus. I welcomed the point-of-view of Ginn, Berenson, etc early on, but they've been flatout proven wrong. Yet they continue to double-down and goal post move because it's obvious they have an agenda (Ginn, Hart are Libertarians) and have books to sell (Berenson). I think the key stat that cuts through all the noise is the CDC's flu view, which tracks the percentage of people going to the hospital for Influenza Like Illnesses. We can see here that by week 12 (April), the flu usually dies out, with around 2.5 percent of ILI related visits. Week 12 of this year saw that percentage at 6.4%. A 150 percent increase over the worst flu season in recent years (2018). And that was despite our social distancing, sheltering in place, and all the other measures we took to contain spread. We can see in that stats that those measures worked, since the week 12 trajectory was trending sharply upwards (vs. the smooth bell curve roll off we see in flu seasons).




    And yes, cases are ing again, leading to increases in hospitalizations and positive rate. We have no idea how likely an exponential explosions really is (wrt to death count), because presumably more younger people are contracting the virus, so more mild cases, but do we really want to play chicken again with the virus? Seems people still haven't grasped the exponential growth concept or are just stubbornly overconfident that "New York can't happen here/again." I agree that New York was the perfect tinder box for this thing to explode, but being even a third as bad as NY is pretty bad. Arizona is disturbingly trending that way.

    New York can’t and won’t happen again because no is ing stupid enough to implement the same directives Cuomo did concerning nursing homes/long term care facilities.

  10. #10
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    My point was SR immediately dismissed when literally the first claim checked out. Regardless...I think you’ll find this dude interesting

    I'm familiar with him, and his "skepticism" has been chuckled at by the likes of the Covid Bad Takes twitter and he'll supposedly block anyone who criticizes him (not confirmed by me).

    And here's the problem with that graph in question (I know he's using it to try and prove that Covid has the same natural bell curve trajectory as the flu, which he'll use to argue that the lockdowns weren't necessary and that Covid would've "gone away" on its own, much like the flu. This is what Levitt argued way back when with the Diamond Princess data).

    Flu cases are simply estimates any given season and the rate of testing during flu season isn't as prevalent during our current battle with Covid, so the Covid case count would be presumably more accurate. The CDC estimates for flu cases during any given season will have millions between the lower and upper bounds (i.e. 12-35 million estimated cases, etc). And as I've said before, case count isn't really helpful in determining spread nor severity. As I've shown in my graphs above, hospital visits presenting with flu-like illnesses drop beneath the 2 percent threshold by week 12-14. Meanwhile, Covid was accelerating at week 12, on a clear upward trajectory, before the many lockdowns and social distancing measures took effect. If the virus had a "natural lifespan," as the skeptics suggest, you would see a bell curve roll off from week 12 and on. But what we saw was a growing e that was sharply mitigated.

    The Arizona data should be an eye-opener here. If you looked at their data around mid-April, you might conclude they are past the peak and rolling off (look how their situation conformed to a bell curve from 2-23 to 4-10). There was a bit of tail into summer, and then they ed after reopening. This should illustrate that this virus has no such natural bell curve lifespan over a specific season like the flu.

  11. #11
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
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    so not a medical guy, former pastor, on a website called "liberty counsel" which has a nice anti-vax banner near the top, says the numbers arent what they seem

    ok!
    these guys like ducks having to dig in the garbage to find anything to confirm their bias

  12. #12
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
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    None of your charts say Gummi Bear though.

  13. #13
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    New York can’t and won’t happen again because no is ing stupid enough to implement the same directives Cuomo did concerning nursing homes/long term care facilities.
    I know people want to take Cuomo to task because he's been hailed as a "hero" throughout all of this, but remember I argued that these patients were likely sent to nursing homes because hospitals likely needed to clear space for incoming Covid patients?

    The nursing home mandate was intended to relieve pressure on hospitals.
    https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05...-home-mandate/

    I asked if a hospital were seeing their beds fill up with incoming critical cases, where were they supposed to send recovering patients if they had nowhere else to go (i.e. typical scenario of selfish family sending their elderly family members away to a nursing home, who probably live out of state). And yes, this could conceivably happen anywhere if the beds start filling up and there's nowhere to send recovered patients. I'm not defending Cuomo, but his miscalculation wasn't so cut-and-dry. Him and the NY health department anticipated many more hospital cases than what actually happened (Cuomo changed the strategy on May 10th). At this time (late March/early April), everyone was desperately trying to avoid becoming the next Italy, so hospitals all over were scrambling to keep as many beds as possible open. In NY, who faced a much greater surge than the likes of FL, many patients early on unfortunately had to be discharged to nursing homes because NY really had no idea how bad the surge was going to get. Florida, California, etc had the luxury of a low surge early on, so they weren't pressed the same to judgment decisions (re: nursing homes) like Cuomo.

    That said, even if we subtract the nursing home death toll (estimated around 40 percent) from NY's numbers, they would've still incurred 20K deaths. 5x the amount of flu deaths they have in a typical season. That's still bad. And being half as bad as that is still bad.

  14. #14
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
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    I know people want to take Cuomo to task because he's been hailed as a "hero" throughout all of this, but remember I argued that these patients were likely sent to nursing homes because hospitals likely needed to clear space for incoming Covid patients?



    https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05...-home-mandate/

    I asked if a hospital were seeing their beds fill up with incoming critical cases, where were they supposed to send recovering patients if they had nowhere else to go (i.e. typical scenario of selfish family sending their elderly family members away to a nursing home, who probably live out of state). And yes, this could conceivably happen anywhere if the beds start filling up and there's nowhere to send recovered patients. I'm not defending Cuomo, but his miscalculation wasn't so cut-and-dry. Him and the NY health department anticipated many more hospital cases than what actually happened (Cuomo changed the strategy on May 10th). At this time (late March/early April), everyone was desperately trying to avoid becoming the next Italy, so hospitals all over were scrambling to keep as many beds as possible open. In NY, who faced a much greater surge than the likes of FL, many patients early on unfortunately had to be discharged to nursing homes because NY really had no idea how bad the surge was going to get. Florida, California, etc had the luxury of a low surge early on, so they weren't pressed the same to judgment decisions (re: nursing homes) like Cuomo.

    That said, even if we subtract the nursing home death toll (estimated around 40 percent) from NY's numbers, they would've still incurred 20K deaths. 5x the amount of flu deaths they have in a typical season. That's still bad. And being half as bad as that is still bad.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/n...s-comfort.html

  15. #15
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    My point was SR immediately dismissed when literally the first claim checked out.
    No. His only claim was that our covid numbers are off. That was wrong. What happened in the UK is irrelevant

  16. #16
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
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    I know people want to take Cuomo to task because he's been hailed as a "hero" throughout all of this, but remember I argued that these patients were likely sent to nursing homes because hospitals likely needed to clear space for incoming Covid patients?



    https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05...-home-mandate/

    I asked if a hospital were seeing their beds fill up with incoming critical cases, where were they supposed to send recovering patients if they had nowhere else to go (i.e. typical scenario of selfish family sending their elderly family members away to a nursing home, who probably live out of state). And yes, this could conceivably happen anywhere if the beds start filling up and there's nowhere to send recovered patients. I'm not defending Cuomo, but his miscalculation wasn't so cut-and-dry. Him and the NY health department anticipated many more hospital cases than what actually happened (Cuomo changed the strategy on May 10th). At this time (late March/early April), everyone was desperately trying to avoid becoming the next Italy, so hospitals all over were scrambling to keep as many beds as possible open. In NY, who faced a much greater surge than the likes of FL, many patients early on unfortunately had to be discharged to nursing homes because NY really had no idea how bad the surge was going to get. Florida, California, etc had the luxury of a low surge early on, so they weren't pressed the same to judgment decisions (re: nursing homes) like Cuomo.

    That said, even if we subtract the nursing home death toll (estimated around 40 percent) from NY's numbers, they would've still incurred 20K deaths. 5x the amount of flu deaths they have in a typical season. That's still bad. And being half as bad as that is still bad.
    And your provided link doesn’t help your case

  17. #17
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
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    No. His only claim was that our covid numbers are off. That was wrong. What happened in the UK is irrelevant
    First claim checked out, as I said.

  18. #18
    i hunt fenced animals clambake's Avatar
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    Covid numbers aren’t what they seem.....cuz they are gonna blow up

  19. #19
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    First claim checked out, as I said.
    That wasn’t his claim. His claim was that the US numbers are wrong. That’s like him saying 2 + 3 = 6 and then you say “but his first claim that the number 2 exists checked out”

  20. #20
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    And your provided link doesn’t help your case
    I didn't provide it to make my case. I provided it to show you what the thinking was during the time. Cuomo gravely miscalculated the amount of resources he would need. He was operating under the assumption that the capacity would fill up at such a rate, that they needed to discharge recovered patients ASAP. Early on in NY, it looked like that might happen ("Italy!"), but the social distancing and lockdown measures proved to be enough for them to handle the surge, even though some area hospitals did get overwhelmed. My point here is that I might've done the same thing as Cuomo if I feared we'd run out of capacity, since taking care of critical patients is more of a priority than housing recovered patients. And if I can't discharge them to their families (who also might not have the means to take care of a recovering patient), nursing homes/rehab facilities might be the only option. Discharging elderly patients to nursing homes to recover from a critical hospital stay is SOP, usually.

    I get you're annoyed with the Cuomo hero spin on left leaning networks while in the same breath they demonize DeSantis, but neither is really deserving of the utmost praise. DeSantis's initial response was terrible, but he lucked out that Florida's environment isn't/wasn't as conducive to spread as New York's environment (warm weather/pop density/outside spread theories were just theories at the time, and might still be). Cuomo acted in good faith (in lieu of agenda driven bad faith from the likes DeBlasio, who was urging people to come and celebrate the Chinese New Year to stick it to Trump), but he unfortunately miscalculated. And we all miscalculated (from armchair epidemiologists to modelers and so on. This virus is still very serious, but early on, I for one thought we might need to build a load of hospitals over the summer to deal with the constant surges. Italy's situation put everyone on high alert.

    And to credit Cuomo, he reversed the nursing policy in early May, and NY has largely flattened the curve.

    Furthermore, the NY times article you linked does illustrate what was happening.

    Only 20 patients had been transferred to the ship, officials said, even as New York hospitals struggled to find space for the thousands infected with the coronavirus.
    So you're Cuomo. Heathcare officials are telling you hospitals are filling up. The Comfort won't take Covid patients. You need to free up beds right now. There's many stable recovered Covid patients occupying those beds. So where do you send them, especially if they need some additional care? If said patient's only next of kin is their essential worker daughter, you can't send them home, since the daughter can't be there 24/7 to take care of the patient. Or maybe they have no family members. Nursing homes are probably the only option in cases like that.

  21. #21
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    I didn't provide it to make my case. I provided it to show you what the thinking was during the time. Cuomo gravely miscalculated the amount of resources he would need. He was operating under the assumption that the capacity would fill up at such a rate, that they needed to discharge recovered patients ASAP. Early on in NY, it looked like that might happen ("Italy!"), but the social distancing and lockdown measures proved to be enough for them to handle the surge, even though some area hospitals did get overwhelmed. My point here is that I might've done the same thing as Cuomo if I feared we'd run out of capacity, since taking care of critical patients is more of a priority than housing recovered patients. And if I can't discharge them to their families (who also might not have the means to take care of a recovering patient), nursing homes/rehab facilities might be the only option. Discharging elderly patients to nursing homes to recover from a critical hospital stay is SOP, usually.

    I get you're annoyed with the Cuomo hero spin on left leaning networks while in the same breath they demonize DeSantis, but neither is really deserving of the utmost praise. DeSantis's initial response was terrible, but he lucked out that Florida's environment isn't/wasn't as conducive to spread as New York's environment (warm weather/pop density/outside spread theories were just theories at the time, and might still be). Cuomo acted in good faith (in lieu of agenda driven bad faith from the likes DeBlasio, who was urging people to come and celebrate the Chinese New Year to stick it to Trump), but he unfortunately miscalculated. And we all miscalculated (from armchair epidemiologists to modelers and so on. This virus is still very serious, but early on, I for one thought we might need to build a load of hospitals over the summer to deal with the constant surges. Italy's situation put everyone on high alert.

    And to credit Cuomo, he reversed the nursing policy in early May, and NY has largely flattened the curve.

    Furthermore, the NY times article you linked does illustrate what was happening.

    So you're Cuomo. Heathcare officials are telling you hospitals are filling up. The Comfort won't take Covid patients. You need to free up beds right now. There's many stable recovered Covid patients occupying those beds. So where do you send them, especially if they need some additional care? If said patient's only next of kin is their essential worker daughter, you can't send them home, since the daughter can't be there 24/7 to take care of the patient. Or maybe they have no family members. Nursing homes are probably the only option in cases like that.
    I'm not sure why he keeps repeating that, we talked about it, and the claim that the USS Comfort was empty while this was going in is questionable at best (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ne...es-ship-empty/).

    It doesn't mean Cuomo is without blame. He had a number of ups, including not funding the emergency stockpile in NY before the pandemic.

    But doubling down on this claim is kinda silly. He even tried to argue the vast majority of deaths in NY were due to that, and presented some right-wing study to the effect. The actual underlying data on that study (that he himself presented) said only 13% of deaths in NY were from nursing homes. I don't recall him responding to that.

  22. #22
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    i pointed out the same thing about darrin... mentions the new york nursing home situation so frequently that its akin to a nervous tick

  23. #23
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    I'm not sure why he keeps repeating that, we talked about it, and the claim that the USS Comfort was empty while this was going in is questionable at best (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ne...es-ship-empty/).

    It doesn't mean Cuomo is without blame. He had a number of ups, including not funding the emergency stockpile in NY before the pandemic.

    But doubling down on this claim is kinda silly. He even tried to argue the vast majority of deaths in NY were due to that, and presented some right-wing study to the effect. The actual underlying data on that study (that he himself presented) said only 13% of deaths in NY were from nursing homes. I don't recall him responding to that.
    Yeah, that would be the thing to hold his feet to the fire vs. the nursing home situation. Like I said, at the time when New York was surging and hospital workers were saying beds were quickly filling, Cuomo might've had no choice but to send those recovered patients to nursing homes.

  24. #24
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    i pointed out the same thing about darrin... mentions the new york nursing home situation so frequently that its akin to a nervous tick
    It's because they're mad that Cuomo, an "evil Democrat," was lauded as a hero on "liberal media," while Trump fanboys like DeSantis were heavily criticized, so republican posters feel the reporting wasn't fair. But there was a lot of praise for Mike DeWine and Larry Hogan in the press (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/polit...hio/index.html). DeSantis deserved all the criticism at the time for not closing down beaches ASAP during Spring Break. Sure, we know a bit more now that Covid might not transmit effectively outdoors, but we didn't know at the time. DeSantis basically backed into good results (so far) by virtue of Florida's natural advantages vs. New York, not by any measures he did, as Florida was one of the last states to issue a stay-at-home order. Florida is currently ing now. First time they've logged a double digit positive rate and hospitalizations have increased by 1500 over the past week, so we'll see what happens.

  25. #25
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    That wasn’t his claim. His claim was that the US numbers are wrong. That’s like him saying 2 + 3 = 6 and then you say “but his first claim that the number 2 exists checked out”


    To use another example, it could also be like defending the theory that the basement to a pizza restaurant operates a child sex trafficking ring by saying its first claim is correct because the pizza restaurant is exists, tbh.

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