Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 26 to 50 of 71
  1. #26
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Post Count
    152,631
    Surprised you're not more on board with just plain rent strikes and refusals to "go back to work?" Forcing people back into their dead-end wage slave jobs so a billionaire can scrape a few more hundreds of millions off the DOW is also ty.
    Because it has to be effective. A rent strike simply delays the inevitable eviction, and not going to work means the inevitable firing. And so it's a race to the bottom on an already ty situation.

    The PPP loans were supposed to be an incentive for companies to keep payroll and avoid those firings, even if employees didn't want to go back to work (but didn't quit). Should also tentatively cover the case of people not losing salary and thus avoiding being behind on their rents.

    However, this has a number of fatal flaws:

    1) Companies can downsize greatly before applying for the loan (or even after, there's a grace period from the loan approval until you have to present your head count sheet). This is something logical to do, since in most cases it would be crazy to keep producing at the same levels pre-pandemic, as the economy will inevitably shrink. Plus there's obviously no penalty if you later on want to expand again.

    2) Loans are 2 or 5 years maturity, 1% interest rate, no fees, 6 month deferred payment, no collateral or personal guarantees required. They also cover Business Mortgage interest payment AND Business Rent/Lease payments as part of the forgiveness deal. I mean they're so egregiously good, that you almost, ALMOST, want to get one of these, go to Vegas, and throw it into the roulette. You win, you get to keep anything above the loan amount + 1%, PLUS you still have a solid shot at forgiveness. You lose, you declare bankruptcy, and move on (I'm exaggerating here, but if you don't think some of these companies are not going to do financial gambles with that money, you've not been paying attention).

    3) On the point above, you're lending to companies, not persons (you have to be a special kind of stupid not to create an LLC for this). Since you don't need collateral or guarantees, good luck collecting if any of these companies go under (it'll be interesting to keep an eye on that).

    4) Loans have all sort of perks, like if you fired somebody and then tried to hire somebody else, as long as you "made a good-faith, written offer to rehire workers that was declined", you're still A-OK.

    5) Forgiveness applies even if you reduced your payroll up to 40% during the loan term (in which case the forgiven amount is the lower amount, and you pay the difference).

    6) The biggest flaw is that this does nothing to for the unemployed, and due to 1), you're going to get a ton of unemployed.

    7) It basically puts a golden-vest on the companies, hopes that the economy will somehow rebound, and companies will be flush with cash to re-hire. It's not a bad plan, but you would think you want more certainty about the rebound timing before handing out all that cash.

    Now that the unemployment insurance bonus is gone, this puts a lot of pressure on the unemployed, and if the economy really doesn't rebound, you're looking at even tier dead-end wage slaves just to get by.

    We talked about alternatives, like a temporary UBI, etc. Obviously, now that companies are largely off the hook, there's much less urgency for that.

  2. #27
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Post Count
    27,061
    Because it has to be effective. A rent strike simply delays the inevitable eviction, and not going to work means the inevitable firing. And so it's a race to the bottom on an already ty situation.

    The PPP loans were supposed to be an incentive for companies to keep payroll and avoid those firings, even if employees didn't want to go back to work (but didn't quit). Should also tentatively cover the case of people not losing salary and thus avoiding being behind on their rents.

    However, this has a number of fatal flaws:

    1) Companies can downsize greatly before applying for the loan (or even after, there's a grace period from the loan approval until you have to present your head count sheet). This is something logical to do, since in most cases it would be crazy to keep producing at the same levels pre-pandemic, as the economy will inevitably shrink. Plus there's obviously no penalty if you later on want to expand again.

    2) Loans are 2 or 5 years maturity, 1% interest rate, no fees, 6 month deferred payment, no collateral or personal guarantees required. They also cover Business Mortgage interest payment AND Business Rent/Lease payments as part of the forgiveness deal. I mean they're so egregiously good, that you almost, ALMOST, want to get one of these, go to Vegas, and throw it into the roulette. You win, you get to keep anything above the loan amount + 1%, PLUS you still have a solid shot at forgiveness. You lose, you declare bankruptcy, and move on (I'm exaggerating here, but if you don't think some of these companies are not going to do financial gambles with that money, you've not been paying attention).

    3) On the point above, you're lending to companies, not persons (you have to be a special kind of stupid not to create an LLC for this). Since you don't need collateral or guarantees, good luck collecting if any of these companies go under (it'll be interesting to keep an eye on that).

    4) Loans have all sort of perks, like if you fired somebody and then tried to hire somebody else, as long as you "made a good-faith, written offer to rehire workers that was declined", you're still A-OK.

    5) Forgiveness applies even if you reduced your payroll up to 40% during the loan term (in which case the forgiven amount is the lower amount, and you pay the difference).

    6) The biggest flaw is that this does nothing to for the unemployed, and due to 1), you're going to get a ton of unemployed.

    7) It basically puts a golden-vest on the companies, hopes that the economy will somehow rebound, and companies will be flush with cash to re-hire. It's not a bad plan, but you would think you want more certainty about the rebound timing before handing out all that cash.

    Now that the unemployment insurance bonus is gone, this puts a lot of pressure on the unemployed, and if the economy really doesn't rebound, you're looking at even tier dead-end wage slaves just to get by.

    We talked about alternatives, like a temporary UBI, etc. Obviously, now that companies are largely off the hook, there's much less urgency for that.
    Sounds ty, and you called it ty from the start. I imagine point 2 is going to be exploited like no one's business. Like you said, I'm sure a great deal of s LLC's are going to be created, the owners will declare those companies bankrupt, saying they just couldn't survive the pandemic, while they made a killing with whatever "personal" financial gamble paid off.

  3. #28
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    13,926
    UK is next. They opened up on the 4th although they're probably smart enough to close again as soon as things start trending the other way.

  4. #29
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Post Count
    152,631
    Sounds ty, and you called it ty from the start. I imagine point 2 is going to be exploited like no one's business. Like you said, I'm sure a great deal of s LLC's are going to be created, the owners will declare those companies bankrupt, saying they just couldn't survive the pandemic, while they made a killing with whatever "personal" financial gamble paid off.
    Considering the government is looking to forgive the loans in the best case, I also don't expect they're going to be doing a lot fight off bankruptcies. Like you said, everybody can blame the pandemic. This is just money they decided to burn.

  5. #30
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    13,926
    Also, I honestly don't see how we don't at least flirt with the numbers we had before. These upticks are either flat or still going up (Texas had 10k cases yesterday, hospitalizations still rising in every hotspot, etc). If we really do hit 100k a day in a few weeks, then it will almost be a certainty, imho, fwiw.

  6. #31
    6X ST MVP
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Post Count
    81,091
    Bruh, that's where you and I have our differences. Trump is part of the plan. He's an actor. He's another Zionist freemason puppet.

    Unfortunately, he IS the chosen one to fulfill the NWO and Agenda 21.

    "I am the chosen one."

    - Donald Trump
    Kasich, Rubio, Bush, Cruz were all groomed system players.
    Trump had more autonomy than is preferred.
    Not saying they haven't made do; but he was not the chosen one.

  7. #32
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    13,926
    60k infections confirmed for yesterday.

  8. #33
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    50,681
    Also notice how case increases do indeed lag deaths, as we know.
    Awesome post.

    Editor:

    Should read "Also notice how deaths lag behind case increases, as we know."

    The way you phrased it makes it look like the opposite of what you meant.

  9. #34
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    97,518
    I also don't expect they're going to be doing a lot fight off bankruptcies.
    They will fight like to stop bankruptcies in their BigDonor class. That's one of the many reasons for BigDonor buying legislative s.

    The ROI on paying those cheap s is many 100s of %.

    =====================

    Taking pandemic money but still laying off 1000s?

    There's a loophole for that. And you don't have to be an American company

    The Airline Bailout Loophole: Companies Laid Off Workers, Then Got Money Meant to Prevent Layoffs

    https://www.propublica.org/article/t...pardo%E2%80%A6




  10. #35
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    50,681
    B
    What's this portend for the US? Not sure. Our peak was driven by a rather unique situation in New York, so I don't expect a plateau of 2K deaths daily like that. But even though we might not get a 2K per day figure, I think this current wave might be worse in a sense (not necessarily in deaths per day) since it's spread out among more states. During the peak, it was a "New York problem," or that's how the skeptics spun it. But now it's a problem in AZ, TX, FL, with CA and GA starting to grow, along with some smaller states.

    I don't think a plateau of 1000-1200 with a daily peak that might near 2K is out of the question.
    The virus will be vastly more widespread, and I am reasonably sure we will exceed the 2k daily deaths because of that, especially when the second and third order infections start hitting new clusters of older populations, especially in places like Florida.

    We've gotten better at treating it, but we are going to overwhelm the health care system in places, and that will cause more deaths. Trump is actively limiting the Federal response when it comes to testing so the normal disaster backstop of concentrated resources will not be as effective.

    As for "New York problem" you can bet that was the case. Bunch of smug ass, dumb ass Republican politicians looking on with Schadenfruede at a blue state, and thinking that won't happen here. ing morons argued just that in this forum.

    The entire episode exposes for me the failures in conservative mindsets to deal effectively with public policy issues. At every turn conservatism fails, and now it is failing with fatal consequences, both for the economy and for people.

  11. #36
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    50,681
    Trying to Philo, but I was arguing against the exaggerated 2 million dead projections with disaster porn from Italy being played on a loop. Fear=/=panic.

    And yes, playing up the virus as the second coming of the Black Plague during that time did have effects.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/...-away-from-er/
    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...th-atrisk.html
    https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...-mental-health

    I "fear" this disease, but I'm not depressed nor having panic attacks about it (and I have panic disorder). You can be informative without being hypebolic and fear-mongering.
    It will likely kill well around a million people in the US before it is done. .005*.6*330,000,000 still works out to a big number, even if you tweak the variables a bit. (death rate*portion of population infected*population). We will see this thing bounding around the world for years.

    The knock off deaths form people putting off "elective" surgeries, or fearing hospital waiting rooms more than the chest pains they are experiencing will be harder to tell. We do have a good measure of what the death rate for all causes was projected to be, i.e. .0088 for the year. I think that will be the baseline to get a much firmer grasp the the ultimate effects, both direct and indirect.

    I think the flu season will be a lot milder with more people staying at home for COVID, and, I would guess, getting vaccines at greater rates. One small bright spot.

  12. #37
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Post Count
    38,217
    this alarmism might do more harm than good by giving people stress and anxiety tbh
    The border wall has not been built and the Mexicans rapists are now fleeing our country.
    we got problems buddy. Luckily we have made sure that students from Harvard that perhaps might want to stay here have to get the fck out.

    Who needs them anyway, we need bodies to work close quarters in meat processing factories.

    let’s keep America great and go orange

  13. #38
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    50,681


    They will fight like to stop bankruptcies in their BigDonor class. That's one of the many reasons for BigDonor buying legislative s.

    The ROI on paying those cheap s is many 100s of %.

    =====================

    Taking pandemic money but still laying off 1000s?

    There's a loophole for that. And you don't have to be an American company

    The Airline Bailout Loophole: Companies Laid Off Workers, Then Got Money Meant to Prevent Layoffs

    https://www.propublica.org/article/t...pardo%E2%80%A6



    Eyup. The big money has bought and paid for the Republican party to represent their interests, and corporate Dems aren't much better. Citizens United created the environment for such cash to completely undermine the political process to tilt towards that interest. We will see a never-ending string of bailouts for big companies, and pennies for everyone else.

  14. #39
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    24,616
    The world would be better off if Covid had more of a H5N1 ('05-06 bird flu) or Ebola like mortality rate. The less humans, the better tbh

  15. #40
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    97,518
    Western country health care operatons, that obviously publish and share C19 information among themselves, what works and what doesn't, are getting better at treatment. So the CFR, case fatality ratio, apparently going down.

    But as always, there's almost no reporting on how badly survivors are variously ed up, for weeks, for months, and some probably for years.

    but CFR here isn't going down that much, so huge increase in cases will produce a huge increase in deaths, and ed up survivors.

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...pickerSort=asc

  16. #41
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Post Count
    38,217
    The world would be better off if Covid had more of a H5N1 ('05-06 bird flu) or Ebola like mortality rate. The less humans, the better tbh
    do you have a grandfather taking up space?

    and you were the one that said you wanted to make babies with as many Karen’s as possible?

    I mean that’s two strikes. You not only increase the population, but you pass on your genes that clearly drive you to mate with all the Karen’s you can?

    snap out of it dude and do your part...rip your testicles off.

  17. #42
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    13,926
    Western country health care operatons, that obviously publish and share C19 information among themselves, what works and what doesn't, are getting better at treatment. So the CFR, case fatality ratio, apparently going down.

    But as always, there's almost no reporting on how badly survivors are variously ed up, for weeks, for months, and some probably for years.

    but CFR here isn't going down that much, so huge increase in cases will produce a huge increase in deaths, and ed up survivors.

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...pickerSort=asc
    Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage


    https://news.yahoo.com/scientists-wa...230312538.html
    By Kate Kelland

    LONDON (Reuters) - Scientists warned on Wednesday of a potential wave of coronavirus-related brain damage as new evidence suggested COVID-19 can lead to severe neurological complications, including inflammation, psychosis and delirium.
    A study by researchers at University College London (UCL)described 43 cases of patients with COVID-19 who suffered either temporary brain dysfunction, strokes, nerve damage or other serious brain effects.
    The research adds to recent studies which also found the disease can damage the brain.

    "Whether we will see an epidemic on a large scale of brain damage linked to the pandemic – perhaps similar to the encephalitis lethargica outbreak in the 1920s and 1930s after the 1918 influenza pandemic – remains to be seen," said Michael Zandi, from UCL's Ins ute of Neurology, who co-led the study.

    COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, is largely a respiratory illness that affects the lungs, but neuroscientists and specialist brain doctors say emerging evidence of its impact on the brain is concerning.
    "My worry is that we have millions of people with COVID-19 now. And if in a year's time we have 10 million recovered people, and those people have cognitive deficits ... then that's going to affect their ability to work and their ability to go about activities of daily living," Adrian Owen, a neuroscientist at Western University in Canada, told Reuters in an interview.

    In the UCL study, published in the journal Brain, nine patients who had brain inflammation were diagnosed with a rare condition called acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) which is more usually seen in children and can be triggered by viral infections.
    The team said it would normally see about one adult patient with ADEM per month at their specialist London clinic, but this had risen to at least one a week during the study period, something they described as "a concerning increase".

  18. #43
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    50,681
    Because it has to be effective. A rent strike simply delays the inevitable eviction, and not going to work means the inevitable firing. And so it's a race to the bottom on an already ty situation.

    The PPP loans were supposed to be an incentive for companies to keep payroll and avoid those firings, even if employees didn't want to go back to work (but didn't quit). Should also tentatively cover the case of people not losing salary and thus avoiding being behind on their rents.

    However, this has a number of fatal flaws:

    1) Companies can downsize greatly before applying for the loan (or even after, there's a grace period from the loan approval until you have to present your head count sheet). This is something logical to do, since in most cases it would be crazy to keep producing at the same levels pre-pandemic, as the economy will inevitably shrink. Plus there's obviously no penalty if you later on want to expand again.

    2) Loans are 2 or 5 years maturity, 1% interest rate, no fees, 6 month deferred payment, no collateral or personal guarantees required. They also cover Business Mortgage interest payment AND Business Rent/Lease payments as part of the forgiveness deal. I mean they're so egregiously good, that you almost, ALMOST, want to get one of these, go to Vegas, and throw it into the roulette. You win, you get to keep anything above the loan amount + 1%, PLUS you still have a solid shot at forgiveness. You lose, you declare bankruptcy, and move on (I'm exaggerating here, but if you don't think some of these companies are not going to do financial gambles with that money, you've not been paying attention).

    3) On the point above, you're lending to companies, not persons (you have to be a special kind of stupid not to create an LLC for this). Since you don't need collateral or guarantees, good luck collecting if any of these companies go under (it'll be interesting to keep an eye on that).

    4) Loans have all sort of perks, like if you fired somebody and then tried to hire somebody else, as long as you "made a good-faith, written offer to rehire workers that was declined", you're still A-OK.

    5) Forgiveness applies even if you reduced your payroll up to 40% during the loan term (in which case the forgiven amount is the lower amount, and you pay the difference).

    6) The biggest flaw is that this does nothing to for the unemployed, and due to 1), you're going to get a ton of unemployed.

    7) It basically puts a golden-vest on the companies, hopes that the economy will somehow rebound, and companies will be flush with cash to re-hire. It's not a bad plan, but you would think you want more certainty about the rebound timing before handing out all that cash.

    Now that the unemployment insurance bonus is gone, this puts a lot of pressure on the unemployed, and if the economy really doesn't rebound, you're looking at even tier dead-end wage slaves just to get by.

    We talked about alternatives, like a temporary UBI, etc. Obviously, now that companies are largely off the hook, there's much less urgency for that.
    Pretty much.

    Companies were flush with cash and profits before and had no clue what to do with it, which was the cause of the huge rate of stock buybacks for publicly traded companies. I think they will weather this a lot better initially that many would expect. On that note, gotta jet.

  19. #44
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    13,926
    Arizona implementing crisis care. They're just sending some old people home to die.

  20. #45
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    50,681
    Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage


    https://news.yahoo.com/scientists-wa...230312538.html
    Eek. I remember seeing something from CNNs Richard Quest:

    https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/20...cts-nr-vpx.cnn

    He has reported "being clumsy", strongly suggesting some neurological damage.

    This thing is getting in other organ systems other than lungs in many cases.

  21. #46
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    13,926
    Eek. I remember seeing something from CNNs Richard Quest:

    https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/20...cts-nr-vpx.cnn

    He has reported "being clumsy", strongly suggesting some neurological damage.

    This thing is getting in other organ systems other than lungs in many cases.
    99% harmless, just the flu, etc.

  22. #47
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    50,681
    Arizona implementing crisis care. They're just sending some old people home to die.
    https://www.abc15.com/news/coronavir...s-of-care-plan

    Not yet. The chances that they get there are pretty high though if the case load keeps going up. Given how wide spread this will be I will guess we will see that somewhere. I am betting Texas.

  23. #48
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Post Count
    27,061
    It will likely kill well around a million people in the US before it is done. .005*.6*330,000,000 still works out to a big number, even if you tweak the variables a bit. (death rate*portion of population infected*population). We will see this thing bounding around the world for years.

    The knock off deaths form people putting off "elective" surgeries, or fearing hospital waiting rooms more than the chest pains they are experiencing will be harder to tell. We do have a good measure of what the death rate for all causes was projected to be, i.e. .0088 for the year. I think that will be the baseline to get a much firmer grasp the the ultimate effects, both direct and indirect.

    I think the flu season will be a lot milder with more people staying at home for COVID, and, I would guess, getting vaccines at greater rates. One small bright spot.
    True, but the original Imperial study that fired everyone up was projecting 2 million dead and 60 million inflected in the first wave. My main issue with that study was they were projecting from China's CFR.

  24. #49
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    50,681
    That is accurate. In the overall population fatality rate is around .0025 to .0066, less than one percent, as long as medical care is available. People make much of the confirmed case load death rate, which misses the majority of cases that never get tested. That majority is four to seven times larger than the confirmed cases.

    It is also a bit misleading because that makes it way worse than the flu. One of the ways that the Republican party is collectively lying through its teeth, and through its propaganda machine.

  25. #50
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    13,926
    https://www.abc15.com/news/coronavir...s-of-care-plan

    Not yet. The chances that they get there are pretty high though if the case load keeps going up. Given how wide spread this will be I will guess we will see that somewhere. I am betting Texas.
    It's pretty likely now. I just read that they have 200 ICU beds left in the whole state with no end in sight to the current e. Agreed we'll probably see it in Texas too, Florida definitely.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •