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Percentages Good now.
Percentages Good now.
Would it really shock anyone to see Trump win again?
People really need to go vote and not just talk about it
If the election were held today it would be a historic blowout of Trump. Anything could happen but something has to change for Trump to even have a chance in November. He’s getting blown out in some swing states by more than double the margin or error of the polls.
This guy predicts Trump will get nearly 400 electoral college votes. Lol
People whom are anti-government are going to take part in voting? I think the Democrats will need to sell them some radical changes. Not sure Biden will do that, he believes he is a better man and more accomplished than Trump. Biden won't allow himself to be strongarmed nor will he hide and back into the Presidency.
Last edited by FrostKing; 07-08-2020 at 10:22 PM.
"Norpoth developed the Primary Model, a statistical model he uses to predict the results of United States presidential elections based on data going back to 1912. According to his Web site primarymodel.com, he has used the model to correctly predict five of six presidential elections from 1996 to 2016[4], including Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 election.[5] This model is based on two factors: whether the party that has been in power for a long time seems to be about to lose it, and whether a given candidate did better in the primaries than his or her opponent.[5] In February 2015, he projected that Republicans had a 65 percent chance of winning the general election the following year.[6] In 2016, this model gained significant media attention because it predicted that Donald Trump would win the general election.[7] In response to critics who cited polls in which Clinton led Trump by a significant margin, Norpoth said that these polls were not taking into account who will actually vote in November, writing, "...nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."[8]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmut_Norpoth
Historical depression of the vote?
Only way Trump gets 350+ electoral votes.
The pandemic and its economic destruction are voting for Biden
200K dead, 100Ks debilitated survivors, and 10% unemployment on 3 Nov
Annnnnd from the same article a model just as accurate as Norpoth's predicts:
Norpoth's model is working off pre-Coronavirus data.A national election model by Oxford Economics has predicted that Donald Trump will suffer a “historic defeat” in November’s election due to the coronavirus economic recession.
The Oxford model predicted the winner of the popular vote in 16 of the past 18 elections
Those primaries in February, in which Biden lost to Bernie, are pretty much irrelevant data now. Pre-Corona, Pre-Floyd Protests, and the "enthusiasm" reason makes no sense here because there's a of a lot people very enthused to vote against Trump, not necessarily for Biden. Biden has also captured a lot of sympathy since then.The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Mr Norpoth said.
If the prediction is correct, former vice president Joe Biden is placed at a severe disadvantage due to losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
It will be interesting to see what turnout is. Covid fears seem more likely to depress the urban vote, same with the crazy protestors. Meanwhile rural voters are largely unaffected by both.
I have no idea since this is an unprecedented time but there could be plenty of surprises to come.
I don't know why anyone has a positive reason to vote for Trump.
Joe biden not president
That is one reason
He loves the Bible
Not a positive reason.
Sure but thats only because Biden has 5% chance to make it alive until november
It's not a positive reason. Do you need it explained to you?Cherp mad.
What's your positive reason for voting for Trump?
Sure, it's a positive reason. I need you to stop crying.
no
I need
Joe not being president is positive reason
Trump helped with the New Mexico’s Canada deal better then the other one
Trump has done or tried to do more then what others have said they would do
If the media and even some republican gave him a fair shake at the off sight he would have done more
200 judges in place
Trump's going to increase welfare, though.
OK, judges.
That's one.
There's any number of positives in not having Biden in the White House.
You should wipe your tears.
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