More on FL. Today, Florida returned a positive rate of 24% (their highest ever) and 11K new cases, and with a median age increase. Their current death tolls are likely from the period when the median age was 33 two weeks ago.
No, the death toll isn't going to "decline" there.
Below 5000 a month-and-a-week from now.
I didn't read the article you're talking about but were those projections based on the distancing and quarantine precautions taking place? Because we're headed towards 200K dead from this and that's with bar/restaurant closures, school closures and the elimination of a ton of social activity. As a baseline predictor of worst case scenario (the scenario where we close nothing and take no measures) it doesn't seem that unreasonable to me.
The second wave will rapidly decline over the summer and the virus is likely to die out without the need for vaccine if behavior continues to be modulated by risk.
TheGreatYacht
I don't think this virus is that lethal to kill that many. Remember, the hidden part of the infection iceberg is probably 10x the official case count, meaning the US has had 30 million infected already. The Imperial study was assuming an IFR of around 3 percent.
If we reach 60 million infected, we could be looking at 400K deaths likely.
Agree with this. Combined with the fact that around 1/3 of the deaths is from nursing homes, I don't think the fatality rate is anywhere near as high as reported.
Not taking into account the long term effects if those are significant.
They are even more dishonest since they have the actual data and are misrepresenting it by omitting the backlog. You are saying Hart is being more dishonest based on speculation into the future.
Florida has already done an excellent job protecting their older population especially considering how big of an elderly population they have. How many months has it been now since they were supposed to be the next New York?
So, you think "at least we're not New York!" is a worthy goal?
They're about a 3rd of the way there to Italy's death rate, and trending up. Remember when avoiding Italy's situation was "the goal?"
You really believe Florida is going to magically flatten their death rate from the recent es (which again, are from when their positive rate, median age, and case count were all lower), don't you?
And I'm calling out Hart because he's supposed to be a data guy. He should know all the data for Florida suggests a rising death count in the coming weeks. Some "truther." He's simply another Libertarian tech bro who wants business as usual for the sake of the market/his investments.
I'm optimistic the worst is behind us.
Pizza parlor child sex dungeon guy says all is well.
Why would you ever think that when we're at our worst infection rate of the pandemic right now and growing fast?
And TSA, really, Hart, Ginn, Berenson, Ethical Skeptic, Levitt and the whole Team Reality contingent. The health officials kept telling us what the best plan of attack was. Lockdown, stay-at-home, whatever you want to call it to not just flatten the curve, but knock the R0 down to such an extent that we could safely FULLY reopen in two months, but with mitigation strategies in place like mask wearing, test-and-trace, and just being cautious. And these assholes were complaining and being "truthers" about the lockdown as early as mid March. Dip Hart projected we'd see only like 12K deaths or something.
They stirred up like minds and I'm sure some their work found its way onto the screens of politicians who were just desperate to reopen. Look at the R0's of countries who've killed their curves (scroll down a bit).
https://covid19-projections.com/denmark (no "herd immunity needed")
https://covid19-projections.com/germany
https://covid19-projections.com/norway
https://covid19-projections.com/australia
https://covid19-projections.com/ireland
These countries (which didn't need any idiotic "herd immunity" strategy) flattened their R0 in the .70-.60 ranges for months. When you get to an R0 below 1.00, you can actually snuff out the virus if you keep it there for some time. The US was only able to get it around .90 for a month, which just wasn't low enough to suppress new cases when the eventual reopening would happen. Not to mention, we're not equipped with the collective psychology (Freedumbs resisting mask wearing and insisting on filling public places, like bars and Trump rallies) and a test/trace program to keep that R0 in check.
And I blame these "truthers" for contributing to much of that psychology.
New York and NJ were rather special cases. Even without the nursing home situation, those regions would've still contributed about 40K deaths. I'm sure TSA is banking on the fact that all the current hot spots don't have the population density of those regions, and pop density does play a role. Not to mention cases are skewing younger and we're a bit better at treating it now.
We might not have another "worst" on the level of the April peak, but we're definitely headed for an Italy level situation. What an achievement!
NY and NJ locked down. TX, AZ, FLA probably won't. Not to mention most other states are having their daily infections growing also. Osterholm still had the US at only a 5% infection rate 3 weeks ago right as the great red state e was starting, and he is the one expert whose projections have been spot on so far. We likely have a long way to go with this and I'd be floored if March-April will be looked at as the worst part of the pandemic in a couple of years once this is mostly over.
It really depends on how well older people can avoid it. Remember, New York likely got seeded around late February/early March when Covid was still a Chinese/Italy problem, so older people were out and about just the same. Presumably, older people are being as cautious as possible and the median age of infected shows that so far.
But these are also Red States, where older people probably make up a great deal of the "covid skeptics," so who knows. Also, I think viral load might be lesser in these states. In high density pops, they basically move from crowded space to crowded space, i.e. subway to small apartment housing 6 family members. More exposure=more viral load=more serious cases.
People being infected now are younger and healthier, people going into the hospitals aren't as sick and are being released quicker, and doctors understand the virus more and are able to give better care to those coming in sick. We also aren't sending covid positive patients back into nursing homes.
Here's the new COVID ward they just set up in Weslaco:
All is well.
lmao As if better treatments means much when you're at the point where hospitals can't keep up with the infection rates exploding all over the country and you still want to throw gasoline on the fire.
Why leave off Sweden who also killed their curve?
https://covid19-projections.com/sweden
If nurses and military personnel weren't already coming in to SA from across the country we would've probably opened up the Freeman by now.Here's the new COVID ward they just set up in Weslaco:
All is well.
So there are no old people outside of the early infection hotspots in NYC / Detroit / New Orleans / Boston? Unless there is a really early vaccine there is likely no way out of this pandemic other than 70% of the nation getting the virus. The fact deaths were pretty centralized into a few cities in the March-April peak tells you it hadn't spread much to the rest of the nation by then. But here it comes now in the places spared then. And I strongly doubt New York is out of the water either, once they reopen they'll probably start blowing up again too. This pandemic is still really only four months old on US soil, long long way to go most likely.
I guess if we wanted to be at 200,000 deaths instead of 136,000 right now we could include Sweden as a shining example.
It cost them the equivalent of 180,000 deaths if their population was the size of ours. I picked countries that kept their death toll low while crushing the curve.
Sweden may very well have herd immunity. The epidemiologist Natalie Dean brought up a great point that the herd immunity threshold isn't the same for every country/region. The herd immunity threshold is said to be 70 percent, but you can create a lower threshold for yourself if you mitigate. Maybe 30 percent of the pop gets infected, but if the rest of the pop is wearing masks, avoiding public gatherings, and being cautious, the virus will still have trouble finding new infections and might die out.
This is why I don't think the Swedish strategy will work here. For one, 50 percent of their households are single person. They effectively social distance naturally. I think more work from home than anywhere else in Europe. They don't seem to have a rabid pub/bar culture like the US/UK. Not very religious, so they won't be packing churches like here. And they're just a more well behaved society while we have people here challenging mask orders and throwing Covid parties.
Not taking a shot at you, but people need to stop using Sweden as a model for the US.
Honestly there are really no tricks as I see it.
Its bald face intentional misrepresentation and lying.
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