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Wow Osterholm has completely flipped the script on what I had heard before from him.
I changed my view a bit. Masks are useful in helping people to remember to socially distance. That's why I started wearing a mask again 3-4 weeks ago. They don't offer much in the way of actual protection though.
Real world examples make it clear.
Social distance with or without a mask works
Not socially distancing with or without a mask does not work
Wow Osterholm has completely flipped the script on what I had heard before from him.
I didn't hear him explain the 7% but I haven't listened to the whole episode yet
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/...ars/episode-15
Appreciate the clarification. What's your source for your apparent claim that there's no epidemiological benefit to mask wearing except to psych people into social distancing?
https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/41...-masks-preventA recent study published in Health Affairs, for example, compared the COVID-19 growth rate before and after mask mandates in 15 states and the District of Columbia. It found that mask mandates led to a slowdown in daily COVID-19 growth rate, which became more apparent over time. The first five days after a mandate, the daily growth rate slowed by 0.9 percentage-points compared to the five days prior to the mandate; at three weeks, the daily growth rate had slowed by 2 percentage-points.
The US is the only "developed" country on this planet where there is an argument still going on about masks. It is sad to see.
Take the case of this guy - war veteran who was working to prevent suicide among veterans. Dies of Covid-19 in the prime of his life, months after publicly refusing to wear a mask.
Imaging fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, wearing a ton of gear in that heat, surviving and returning home, only to die because he didn't want the inconvenience of a mask.
This also kills the myth that Trump is a competent businessman. The idiot could have put his MAGA logo on masks and made money off his blind followers. His stupidity and obstinacy are way bigger than his smarts
I know Osterholm is pretty convinced it's aerosol and not droplet transmission that's getting people infected, but how do you explain Japan then and their lack of terrible outbreaks? Because all Japan did was shut down schools in March and wear masks. If transmission is mostly aerosol instead of via droplets wouldn't you logically expect them to have had a wildfire breakout at some point? They were one of the earliest seeded places on Earth.
We're also the only developed country on this planet where there is an argument about universal healthcare. Only one where there is an argument about guns. Only one where there is an argument about global warming. And so on... we're a banana republic.
There is no place that put in mask mandates without emphasizing distancing.
In the real world SA had community spread in February. People weren't wearing masks but were scared as so they distanced. We did not have major outbreak until people let their guard down.
You can't get a more mask compliant country and yet they just put 500k people on a hard lock down.
Distancing works with/without masks
Not distancing does not work with/without a mask.
No they distanced better than we have. Better messaging than the do your normal but just stay 6ft apart.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-...ockdown-2020-5
Yeah it quite the flip. Maybe his professional reputation was taking a hit every time he correctly said "We're not riding this tiger, it's riding us".
I'm not buying that at all. Tokyo and many other Japanese cities have unbelievably jam packed trains. Even when they're not fully loaded in the pandemic they're still not anywhere near empty, they still look pretty full by American standards. One thing Japanese don't do on trains though is talk... at all, period. So not nearly as much opportunity to create / breathe in droplets as say riding the NY subway where people talk to each other, talk on cell phones, and so on. If it just aerosol transmission instead of droplets wouldn't you expect a huge number of infections from subway riders just from normal breathing? Those particles would be light enough to be spread by simple exhalation when breathing wouldn't they? And they won't be caught by surgical masks. People aren't wearing N95 masks out there.
Maybe Asians distance in the metric system so they don't have to be as far apart?
Last edited by ChumpDumper; 07-11-2020 at 04:41 PM.
I like that claim that Japanese speakers eject fewer droplets though, that one cracked me up the first time I heard it. I watch a lot of Japanese TV and saw that story a couple of weeks ago where they'd say something in English forcefully and you'd see this flag they spoke into go flying up, then they'd meekly say something in Japanese and the thing would barely move. It's kind of laughable because Japanese has some very hard consonant sounds that are heavily used. Like when you're talking past tense casually your sentence will usually end with かった and that った = tta is a pretty hard consonant sound. Almost anything you would say in the past tense would end with that った since the verb is at the end of almost every sentence in Japanese (sometimes you omit the verb).
It's the one thing I really doubt Osterholm on after seeing how little Japan has been affected despite their government doing very very little in mitigation.
Now you're saying the mask prevents contracting the disease? Seems to be a different story than before, where it prevented some spreading, not contracting though.
And rioters, they also don't spread the disease.
Don't think Japanese live 30 to a household like some of the minorities in NY do.
Tokyo's density makes New York City look like it's Hondo.
Pretty sure Japan has a lower members per household number than the US. Tokyo has 1.9 members per household. Some areas in NYC have as high as 3 and the US averages about 2.6. South Korea has a higher population density than Texas, with 14% the land mass of Texas yet twice the population. Yet they are a shining example of Valhalla.
How many people do you think people living in Tokyo ride the train with? Also if that's your argument how does that shoot down the case for masks since infection in the home is happening without using masks? What do you think is the reason Japan isn't getting ravaged by this virus? Or are they lying like South Korea?
If they did Abbott would be shouting it from the rooftops.
Texas had 10,000 new cases yesterday.
South Korea had 45.
Yep, it's definitely the lower density in Texas that is keeping its case count low.
Another 10,000 today too.
That's rivaling New York in April. Fortunately we won't reach their death numbers, but ours are almost guaranteed to get worse. This sucks.
Always love an opportunity to post these:
Molestor's dream though... funny the word for molestor is 痴漢 = chikan, whose kanji literally mean stupid + Chinese
Not related, but first time I visited Tokyo I still smoked, and I was walking through the city burning a cig without thinking twice. I'm also 6'3" and white as , so you stand out like a nun in a house... not a single person said anything to me, avoided eye contact even though they were intrigued as (very geneous city, no Westerners can be seen outside 100ft of a hotel). Well, turns out smoking is illegal in public, unless you're huddled around a public ashtray, which usually have like 300 people around them... they smoke a lot.Molestor's dream though... funny the word for molestor is 痴漢 = chikan, whose kanji literally mean stupid + Chinese
Other ed up thing is there are no public trash cans. City is clean as , littering is basically unseen, but you can't find a place to throw you coffee cup unless you go into a restaurant, office, or your home.
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