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Hmmmm. Maybe a decent band name. Fatality Twins sounds a little better. Or Fatality Sisters."fatality cousins"
Are you drunk, derp?
Can't see it, but in regards to the OP: yup. It is a reporting lag. The farther you go back in time, the more complete the dataset. Very familiar with this in the insurance industry. Insurance companies are required to hold reserves to account for it.
Hmmmm. Maybe a decent band name. Fatality Twins sounds a little better. Or Fatality Sisters.
Are you drunk, derp?
Have you asked him why he is tolerating Russia's bounties on our troops in Afghanistant yet? Or held him to account for extorting our allies for bribes? Or actively breaking the law?
He said that even the intelligence agencies don't agree on that.
So, you gonna thank Orange Man for saving all those lives or not?
Translation:Sitting the healthy players. Solid strategy
"Reducing person to person contact is a dumb way to fight an infectious disease"
Wow.
Just wow. that was one of the dumber things you have said here.
Eat a . You are letting him give the green light for bounties put on our troops heads.
There is literally nothing you won't excuse.
Please show me where and when I said Covid isn't that bad. Here's a truther pointing out exactly what you are saying they are omittingIt all stated with that Aaron Ginn Medium article posted in mid-March, which to be fair, did have some useful content and challenged the prevailing projections at the time of 60 million infected/2 million dead. Ginn's analysis was correct in that regard. But since then, Ginn, among other truthers, led by a pulp novelist named Alex Berenson have went off the reservation with their denial and have sadly manipulated the tholdren's of the world along with more reasonable people (like TSA) into believing Covid "isn't that bad" and/or that we have already crushed the curve. So they conclude that any headline claiming Covid deaths are rising is simply "fear mongering" by the mainstream media.
This is the primary data they use.
What you're looking it is the weekly death toll from the CDC. The "truthers" will plot on a graph like this and then say, "See. Look how we've flattened!"
Big image, so I'll just post the link.
https://imgur.com/9hk4HlY
What this image is illustrating is the difference between the time the deaths actually occurred and when they were added to the various data tracking sites that the media use to report daily deaths. On July 4th, you can see the difference between the CDC (orange bar) and the Covidtracking project's (blue bar) count. The reason for the former's higher count is because backlogged cases that happened weeks or months ago are finally getting tallied. So with this, the truthers conclude that daily deaths are being grossly over-reported and there's really no e happening at all! It's just backlogged data finally being added.
But what they fail to omit is that the CDC only counts deaths when they receive an OFFICIAL death certificate. How long does it take to get a death certificate?
Boiled down. The CDC's data lags by weeks, maybe months, since death certificates can sometimes take months. "Team reality" fell for this phenomenon before when they were sharing this popular image.
And what happened when the data caught up?
This twitter user sums it up:
"reasonable people (like TSA)"
So...is derp's go-to move now to mention The Great Yauchtschwitz to come and rescue him when he's getting on all the time?
Did you even read the OP?
What part of healthy people aren't dying from this don't you understand?
Pretty much. What is funny is that most people here take yacht less seriously than derp. Personally when yacht tried to say hitler wasn't that bad, that sunk it for me. i have the link in my siggy in case I forgot that.
You gonna thank Orange Man for saving those two million lives, or you got a stuck in your mouth?
I have no idea who these people are you guys are referring to. I don't watch these bul videos that The Great Yapper posts and I don't give a what any of these people have to say about it. There are medical/science authorities and then there are idiots. There's not a whole lot of middle ground.
I figured you share the at ude of the truthers since you usually post their thoughts.Please show me where and when I said Covid isn't that bad. Here's a truther pointing out exactly what you are saying they are omitting
No, Hart, like always, is OMITTING. You didn't read my post carefully enough. Yes, he points out backfilled data gets tallied weeks or months later and this gives the impression of a " e."
What he omits, however, is there's probably a load of people dying right now that AREN'T being tallied and will be added at a much later date.
Again, he's using the backfill phenomenon in only one direction, trying to suggest that deaths are in fact dying down and it's the backfill that is giving the illusion of a recent e. Death rates follow case increase pretty linearly when the lag catches up. Here's an adjusted correlation showing that:
Unless these hot spots have gotten really, really good at treating critical cases, deaths will e in the following weeks. We're currently at around a 625 rolling 7 day average for deaths. Don't be surprised if that pops to 1000-1500, which is pretty bad, especially for a country past its first plateau.
Hart is implying, "nothing to see here. Deaths will remain flat or drop. Just backlogged data! There's been no real increase." He doesn't understand that what is happening right now isn't being tallied all that much. And going by reports from the frontlines, what is happening right now is .
Last edited by midnightpulp; 07-10-2020 at 10:23 AM.
While trying to on these "truthers" you're completely ignoring them pointing out exactly what you are accusing them of doing. When the media is reporting OMG HUGE E IN FLORIDA is the media being honest and explaining the backlogged data or are they omitting that?
posted in another thread but relevant here discussing Florida
Current trends in Florida show a significant increase in percent positive test results in recent weeks. Florida has significantly increased the amount of testing. The average age of infection has dropped substantially and there is clear evidence that younger people who are much lower risk of death from COVID-19 are out and about.
This second wave of infections is likely similar in magnitude to the initial outbreak in March, but early testing was limited, so this can be inferred by secondary analysis using our COVID Decision Model. We take close look at the current data and evaluate outcome trends in Florida. Our model is well suited for modeling dynamic heterogeneous effects, especially those based on age demographics. Note that data reporting is delayed, and as such, the model may deviate somewhat from updated data. We have modeled a range of scenarios to assess long term outcomes.
We reference the Florida Department of Public Health for statistics. We present the model results for five scenarios. The details of each case study are presented at the bottom of this post.
We make several observations:
People are modulating their connectivity in proportion to their risk.
Infections are up, but deaths will continue to decline.
The Infection Fatality Rate is declining rapidly and approaching flu like levels.
The second wave will rapidly decline over the summer and the virus is likely to die out without the need for vaccine if behavior continues to be modulated by risk.
Florida is doing a good job protecting a large population of elderly vulnerable people.
Despite the criticisms from many seeking to create panic, the people of Florida offer a great example the path forward for COVID-19 mitigation. As the population organically loosens up by age demographic where risks are low, the infection is essentially working through those populations and burning itself out.
From a public policy perspective, it is imperative to educate people to their actual risks so that those who are vulnerable can minimize risky interactions. It is important to continue to protect the vulnerable people who can’t protect themselves in ins utions or are under the care. Younger people should continue to minimize potentially infectious contact with vulnerable populations. Good hygiene should continue to be encouraged, including hand washing and wearing masks in close quarter indoors.
This recovery approach provides the best balance of economic recovery and public health.
The Florida Second Wave Model
We have an increase in infections that are likely resulting from an overall increase in connectivity proportional to age (younger people dropping social distancing norms). The loosening of stay at home orders in mid May and widespread civil protests after Memorial Day both contributed to this increased connectivity. This increased social contact for younger demographics has caused a large e in infections. Death rates resulting from these infections will be very low.
We have modeled a heterogeneous shift in behavior by age group, proportional to actual individual risk. We assess five scenarios to understand the nature of this second infection wave in Florida and a range of outcomes over time. A simulation population of 2 million agents is scaled to the 21.4 million in presented results.
Case 1 assumes modest social distancing and reduced connectivity in proportion to risk (age). This case best matches the current data trends.
Case 2 is the same as Case 1 with incrementally more increased contact.
Case 3 is the same as Case 2 with significantly increased contact going forward. This is not likely a realistic scenario.
Case 4 is similar to Case 1, with reduced contact in July and then increased contact similar to Case 2 from August onward.
Case 5 is light switch to show a worst case and is presented for reference. This is not a realistic scenario.
Case 1, 2 and 3 are representative of likely scenarios. Death and infection trends for these scenarios are presented below. Death curves are well matched to the existing trends. The infections rate shows a clear second hump due to the age stratified increase in mobility (younger cohorts are more mobile) and matches current % positive test trends. We also show the due to the younger distribution of infections, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) has dropped from an initial value of 0.5% to less than 0.2%.
https://covidplanningtools.com/flori...wave-analysis/
I'm not sure how I can be more clear. Again, the truthers are using the backfill phenomenon in one way to fit their narrative. They are saying the media is "overreacting" to a situation that isn't taking place in real time. Hart's little graph is even more egregious because it's suggesting that only 31 people died in Florida between July 1st and 8th. He's not pointing out that there's probably hundreds of deaths that occurred during that week that haven't been tallied yet. Do you really believe deaths aren't accelerating in these new hot spots?
Let me see if I can clarify. We know that case and death trajectories track pretty closely (see Iran).
And these recent test es aren't because of more testing. The positive rate has grown. So what do you is going to happen when the deaths are finally tallied from these case increases?
death is the worst outcome, but C19 non-death, esp hospitalization, kicks one's ass really hard, with symptoms lasting weeks or months (so far)
Any of you assholes who celebrates INCREASING infections only because deaths are "apparently" down are ing stupid.
You're stupidity for prolonging the pandemic should be rewarded with C19 hospitalization.
Last edited by boutons_deux; 07-10-2020 at 10:52 AM.
I'm not sure how I can be more clear. This thing goes both ways. When the media is reporting OMG HUGE E IN FLORIDA is the media being honest and explaining the backlogged data or are they omitting that?I'm not sure how I can be more clear. Again, the truthers are using the backfill phenomenon in one way to fit their narrative. They are saying the media is "overreacting" to a situation that isn't taking place in real time. Hart's little graph is even more egregious because it's suggesting that only 31 people died in Florida between July 1st and 8th. He's not pointing out that there's probably hundreds of deaths that occurred during that week that haven't been tallied yet. Do you really believe deaths aren't accelerating in these new hot spots?
Let me see if I can clarify. We know that case and death trajectories track pretty closely (see Iran).
And these recent test es aren't because of more testing. The positive rate has grown. So what do you is going to happen when the deaths are finally tallied from these case increases?
https://covidplanningtools.com/flori...wave-analysis/I'm not sure how I can be more clear. Again, the truthers are using the backfill phenomenon in one way to fit their narrative. They are saying the media is "overreacting" to a situation that isn't taking place in real time. Hart's little graph is even more egregious because it's suggesting that only 31 people died in Florida between July 1st and 8th. He's not pointing out that there's probably hundreds of deaths that occurred during that week that haven't been tallied yet. Do you really believe deaths aren't accelerating in these new hot spots?
Let me see if I can clarify. We know that case and death trajectories track pretty closely (see Iran).
And these recent test es aren't because of more testing. The positive rate has grown. So what do you is going to happen when the deaths are finally tallied from these case increases?
^That analysis of Florida's situation seems very optimistic. Their "worst case" scenario line has them below 5000 deaths (and they're counting backlogs) as late as August 18.
Here's Florida's ED visit data that they mysteriously stopped reporting on by Jun 27th
Anecdotes from the frontlines:
https://www.newsweek.com/43-florida-...-surge-1516006
https://wptv.com/rebound/excess-deat...oll-in-florida
https://www.salon.com/2020/07/08/56-...onavirus-data/
And the median age has risen.
If you don't think this will translate into rising deaths in the coming weeks, not sure what to say.
They're not being honest, but their reporting has more truth than Hart's omission, which is more glaring, since those recent case and death es do suggest Florida's situation is accelerating, not improving.
Even Marco Rubio gets it. This is why, "Let the young people do their thing and get infected" is a re ed idea. The virus will eventually find its way to the older population, no matter how hard they try to isolate.
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