Called it. Refrigerated carcass trucks called back into action

[DMC]

Oh, you'd say.

You just made yourself the ST corpse pundit. Own it.

Damn you are desperate to make it about me.

[DMC]

Not how this works. You're a rational guy, so read my thread on the backfill phenomenon. What the state dashboards report isn't a reflection of reality on the ground. We have deaths from months and weeks ago just being logged. Boiled down, 300 people could've passed today, but you won't see those deaths show up in the stats for weeks and maybe months.

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=286236

When the pandemic first started, I also thought deaths were being counted in "real time." Splits taught me a lesson about it when I predicted New York's deaths per day would peak at around 120. He laughed me off. Little did I know, New York was already experiencing hundreds of deaths per day days or weeks before. Splits knew about the backfill phenomenon and called NY's peak pretty closely.

So you're working from a hypothetical? Do you think the backlogged death counts are being released one day at a time on daily deaths, or are they being compiled?

If the counts are not current, how do we know what it is and what the urgency should be? Without real time, accurate statistics, we are only discussing what happened weeks or months ago. What is happening right now? If we don't know, are we just grabbing a story from a news site and filling in the missing information with "probably" and "likely"? Why should that cause anyone to raise an eyebrow? People with optimism will minimalize the situation while the hand wringers here will inflate it to astronomical, end of times levels.

So the question remains. Why are morgues filling up or are they?

[ChumpDumper]

DerpMC trying to distract attention from his stupid take.

[DMC]

Damn you are desperate to make it about me.

DerpMC trying to distract attention from his stupid take.

[ChumpDumper]

So 44 more deaths a day are filling up the morgues in the entire state of Arizona, and 100 a day in Texas? Really? Were they that pressed for space?

I'd say it's more likely morgues don't want COVID corpses. Otherwise, an event that killed, say... 3000 people would totally swamp Texas morgues (but people go to morgues in counties where they die).

The half truth/all out bull meter here is pegged.

[DMC]

I told you months ago that the counts are wrong. I was challenged to find the missing bodies.

[ChumpDumper]

So 44 more deaths a day are filling up the morgues in the entire state of Arizona, and 100 a day in Texas? Really? Were they that pressed for space?

I'd say it's more likely morgues don't want COVID corpses. Otherwise, an event that killed, say... 3000 people would totally swamp Texas morgues (but people go to morgues in counties where they die).

The half truth/all out bull meter here is pegged.

[DMC]

Interesting take

[ChumpDumper]

Interesting take

Your take was laughable.

[Spurtacular]

I told you months ago that the counts are wrong.

Chumpettes worship those fake numbers.

They think the higher they go the better the chance they'll get zombie rapist to replace orange man.

[ChumpDumper]

derp and DerpMC's conspiracy theories

[midnightpulp]

So you're working from a hypothetical? Do you think the backlogged death counts are being released one day at a time on daily deaths, or are they being compiled?

If the counts are not current, how do we know what it is and what the urgency should be? Without real time, accurate statistics, we are only discussing what happened weeks or months ago. What is happening right now? If we don't know, are we just grabbing a story from a news site and filling in the missing information with "probably" and "likely"? Why should that cause anyone to raise an eyebrow? People with optimism will minimalize the situation while the hand wringers here will inflate it to astronomical, end of times levels.

So the question remains. Why are morgues filling up or are they?

Hospitalizations. They are accelerating. And deaths follow the hospitalizations and case curves pretty linearly.

This professor's projections have been right on.

What is happening "right now," is that clinics are being overwhelmed in these hotspots, which the hospitalization data shows. Presumably, deaths will follow these trends. Only thing that I could see bending the death curve is we've gotten much better a treating critical patients. But nothing is trending positively right now.

[DMC]

Chumpettes worship those fake numbers.

They think the higher they go the better the chance they'll get zombie rapist to replace orange man.

The daily death counts are paramount for their arguments but can be casually dismissed as fake news due to backlog when the notion strikes.

[Spurtacular]

The daily death counts are paramount for their arguments but can be casually dismissed as fake news due to backlog when the notion strikes.

They do all kinds of double takes.
TheGreatYacht

[ChumpDumper]

The daily death counts are paramount for their arguments but can be casually dismissed as fake news due to backlog when the notion strikes.

Hospitalizations. They are accelerating. And deaths follow the hospitalizations and case curves pretty linearly.

This professor's projections have been right on.

What is happening "right now," is that clinics are being overwhelmed in these hotspots, which the hospitalization data shows. Presumably, deaths will follow these trends. Only thing that I could see bending the death curve is we've gotten much better a treating critical patients. But nothing is trending positively right now.

DerpMC

[midnightpulp]

DerpMC

I like DMC, and he'll be "Spock like" rational on some things, but just bullheaded on others. I'm sure he'll try to pick apart these projections with "skepticism," but I think Dr. Dave Blake has the qualifications to know what he's doing.

Med Sch Full Professor and Researcher. PhD Biomedical Engineer. Brain physiologist and data scientist.

And it's just common sense. You don't even need any data science to extrapolate what is going to happen. See Iran's trajectory. Cases peaked, flattened, peaking again. Deaths peaked, flattened, peaking again after the backfill caught up.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

[DMC]

DerpMC

THoldren did solid work on you. You've been jelly since.

[ChumpDumper]

THoldren did solid work on you. You've been jelly since.

The guy who said it's the flu?

You've been afraid to answer simple questions about your stupid takes for years. Trying to make it about me personally is all you can do.

[TimDunkem]

at the notion of grandpa thldren doing work on anyone.

[DMC]

I like DMC, and he'll be "Spock like" rational on some things, but just bullheaded on others. I'm sure he'll try to pick apart these projections with "skepticism," but I think Dr. Dave Blake has the qualifications to know what he's doing.



And it's just common sense. You don't even need any data science to extrapolate what is going to happen. See Iran's trajectory. Cases peaked, flattened, peaking again. Deaths peaked, flattened, peaking again after the backfill caught up.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

Data is either relevant or it's not. Argument from authority doesn't make it either way though given a situation where I must trust one or the other based on nothing more than credentials, I'll take the doctor over the Youtube view farmer.

If you look at daily deaths you always see the weekend sawtooth. Those deaths get counted on other days. Why would that be? If Bob died on Saturday, ok count him on Saturday. Why count Bob's death on Monday as Monday's death total? Back date the death to the proper day and adjust the charts. The death total overall will not change but the data will be more accurate.

Hospitalizations do not equal deaths. People who would have been hospitalized for pneumonia a couple months ago are probably being more accurately diagnosed now. In fact the increased pneumonia death rate in Texas pretty clearly delineates that Texas had a higher death rate than previously stated, so the "trend", if adjusted to be accurate, would be flatter imo.

[DMC]

at the notion of grandpa thldren doing work on anyone.

He got you too COVID slave to your employer.

[ChumpDumper]

at the notion of grandpa thldren doing work on anyone.

thdren cut way back on his posting after he learned from me that ten Texas hospitals were indeed at capacity last week. None of them can ever admit being wrong about anything.

[ChumpDumper]

He got you too COVID slave to your employer.

DMC wants to make it personal about TD too.

It's really all he has after he drops his facade.

[DMC]

The guy who said it's the flu?

You've been afraid to answer simple questions about your stupid takes for years. Trying to make it about me personally is all you can do.

He took you to the woodshed and you've been in shambles since. He played your game and beat you at it. I always answer questions about my takes. You want answers about me. You make it personal, you're doing it again. You started doing it in this thread right away after tholdren broke one off in you.

[TimDunkem]

He got you too COVID slave to your employer.

I've been home since, tbh.