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  1. #101
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
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    What link did you get this expanded version from? Are these explanations even official?

    Imagur
    "are these explanations official?"

    You never believe anything the government officially puts out. Don't start now.

  2. #102
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
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    As disappointing as this lame conspiracy theory is I am pleased to see chumpettes joining together with tholdren in saying don't believe the numbers.

    It's good to see some unity on this board.
    Disappointing when snakeboy reverts back to derp mode

  3. #103
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    As disappointing as this lame conspiracy theory is I am pleased to see chumpettes joining together with tholdren in saying don't believe the numbers.

    It's good to see some unity on this board.
    You can disregard point 3 or account for the error of not seeing "filtered for TX" (whatever the that's supposed to mean) in post 87. Read the rest of my points.

    1. The red line is not actual deaths.
    2. COVID death count of 1700 is not the 33 that Google shows in their state for state (So, at "filtered for TX" in the second place)
    3. This graph is a troll job / propaganda piece designed to have people make quick conclusions that a calamity is on our hands. TheGreatYacht

  4. #104
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    "are these explanations official?"

    You never believe anything the government officially puts out. Don't start now.
    It's relevant. Stop lashing out.

    That it's a Midnight Gulp production designed to propagate propaganda though.

  5. #105
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    You posted the definition from the CDC yourself. The graph doesn't have any line labeled expected deaths, it only shows actual deaths, actual reported covid death, and actual average death of the previous 3 years - looking at these shows there are many more actual deaths over this time than the previous 3 years, and that actual covid deaths doesn't cover that difference- the conclusion is that covid deaths are being underreported.

    You could argue that the data is flawed a la tholdren and probably have decent enough of an argument. But your arguments only show you don't even understand the graph, even with the expanded legend midnight added.
    The problem is that deaths are deaths are deaths. It is one of the most accurate pieces of data we have. Awfully hard to fudge or fake. It is why they are having such a hard time waving it away.

  6. #106
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    Disappointing when snakeboy reverts back to derp mode
    Are you onboard with the deep state is hiding the real covid numbers theory Blake?

  7. #107
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    As disappointing as this lame conspiracy theory is I am pleased to see chumpettes joining together with tholdren in saying don't believe the numbers.

    It's good to see some unity on this board.
    That isn't an explanation stupid mother er.

    Rates like that do not vary greatly from averages without an explanation. That guiding principle is the foundation of statistics and a whole lot of finance, economics, and actuarial estimates are based on that.

    There was no deviation until this disease started spreading in communities.

    Explain the e, stupid mother er. Maybe it is white millenials fleeing the Democratic party because you saw a stock photo.


  8. #108
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    That isn't an explanation stupid mother er.

    Rates like that do not vary greatly from averages without an explanation. That guiding principle is the foundation of statistics and a whole lot of finance, economics, and actuarial estimates are based on that.

    There was no deviation until this disease started spreading in communities.

    Explain the e, stupid mother er.
    Is the deep state hiding the real covid numbers?

  9. #109
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    I'm asking you to explain the e. It's your conspiracy theory. A boring one since you refuse to give any details about it.
    We already did. Sorry it didn't excite you.

    If you don't have a better explanation just say so.

    Hopefully you have a really exciting explanation.

  10. #110
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Is the deep state hiding the real covid numbers?
    So, you don't know what is causing the e, you just *know* it isn't covid, because that would be inconvenient for the s like you in the Republican party.



    Texas does not count probable deaths. It is a caveat right there as a footnote. It is a simple bureaucratic procedure, and fairly reasonable IMO.

    Which is why we are undercounting it, AND the disease is vastly more widespread.
    https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/T...CountData.xlsx

    Even so the 10 day moving average of fatalities is now 66, and that is double what it was a week ago. The first surge of deaths from the increased caseload a week or two ago is happening now.

    This trend mirrors exactly the other e in all deaths. The one that magically follows this one, that you can't explain, because of your politics.
    Last edited by RandomGuy; 07-14-2020 at 03:26 PM.

  11. #111
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Are you onboard with the deep state is hiding the real covid numbers theory Blake?
    No one said anyone was hiding anything.

    Why are you so pissy?

    There is a discrepancy. We're trying to explain it. You're losing your .

    Do you want to talk about a blue state? Would that make you feel better?

  12. #112
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    We already did. Sorry it didn't excite you.

    If you don't have a better explanation just say so.

    Hopefully you have a really exciting explanation.
    Well, it MOST definitely is not the pandemic going on. That is a pure coincidence. It was a stealth hurricane that hit right as the pandemic did. Yeah, that's it. No one noticed it tho.

  13. #113
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    Chumpettes gonna focus on Snakeboy's jibber jabber after I tore that graph to shreds.

    TheGreatYacht


  14. #114
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    It's a totally useless graph designed to trick the mind into thinking stuff.
    1. The red line is not actual deaths. Midnight Gulp says it is even after I showed him that it's not.
    Back on the computer. I don't know why I'm banging my head against the wall trying to make you understand this, but your extreme arrogance in thinking you're right is just too annoying not to reply to.

    The red line is ACTUAL DEATHS that occurred in 2020. Do you in' see how the red line was conforming to the baseline and tracking with the averages from 2017-2019. Everything was business as usual in Texas until late March when deaths started to rise above the expected baseline and the 2017-2019 averages.

    2. It's showing the US excess deaths (a measurement of CDC error) vs. COVID deaths in Texas. What is a person even to take from that? (jaguar fan dot gif)
    The this even mean. All it is in' showing are the death trends for Texas from 2017-2019 (gray) and 2020 (red).

    3. That all said, the red line sure AF ain't a measure of actual deaths. And if Midnight Gulp and fellow chumpettes bothered to even understand this ultimately useless graph, then they'd know that this number of excess deaths doesn't even give real guidance on actual death counts anyhow.

    And let's put this another way. If that red line is somehow "actual deaths", then what you're telling me is half of COVID deaths in Texas is half of the US total? Obviously, a quick check would show that's bull .
    Christ all in' mighty. Just .

    And let's put this still yet another way. COVID deaths on 3/4/20 were somehow higher than actual deaths! How's that work?
    Another "mis-assessment." Look at the graph closely. It doesn't start counting Covid deaths until about 4/4. You'll see the yellow line ruler flat on the 0 baseline. And that line isn't suggesting there were more Covid deaths than all deaths. It's illustrating the amount of confirmed Covid deaths contributed to the excess mortality total.

    Maybe this chart will help you FINALLY get it. This only covers March 1 to April 25th.



    Now let me see if I can explain it so a Derp can understand. The first highlight is the expected number of deaths Texas expects to have over this time frame. Get it?

    When the doctor people and science people counted all the deaths from March 1st to April 25th, they counted 2274 more deaths. You can see on the graph I posted that the pretty red line reaches about that number in late-April/Early May. Of those deaths, 809 were attributed to Covid, you know, the cooties going around right now making people real sick

    Non-Covid deaths make up 1465. We can then look at the CDC and see many of those "non-Covid" deaths (death is the thing that makes people die) were due to pneumonia. Pneumonia is something that makes your breathing very, very bad

    So we ask ourselves, what was causing an unusual amount of pneumonia deaths? Covid? Huffing paint?

    I'm done now. I await some a decadown, but this is as in' clear as I can explain it without resurrecting Dr. in Seuss to explain it with pictures and cute rhymes.

  15. #115
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Chumpettes gonna focus on Snakeboy's jibber jabber after I tore that graph to shreds.

    TheGreatYacht

    PAY ATTENTION TO MEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!

    Sad.

  16. #116
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    That isn't an explanation stupid mother er.

    Rates like that do not vary greatly from averages without an explanation. That guiding principle is the foundation of statistics and a whole lot of finance, economics, and actuarial estimates are based on that.

    There was no deviation until this disease started spreading in communities.

    Explain the e, stupid mother er. Maybe it is white millenials fleeing the Democratic party because you saw a stock photo.

    would have been clearer if they used the average # of deaths as the baseline instead of 0.

  17. #117
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    Back on the computer. I don't know why I'm banging my head against the wall trying to make you understand this, but your extreme arrogance in thinking you're right is just too annoying not to reply to.

    The red line is ACTUAL DEATHS that occurred in 2020. Do you in' see how the red line was conforming to the baseline and tracking with the averages from 2017-2019. Everything was business as usual in Texas until late March when deaths started to rise above the expected baseline and the 2017-2019 averages.



    The this even mean. All it is in' showing are the death trends for Texas from 2017-2019 (gray) and 2020 (red).



    Christ all in' mighty. Just .



    Another "mis-assessment." Look at the graph closely. It doesn't start counting Covid deaths until about 4/4. You'll see the yellow line ruler flat on the 0 baseline. And that line isn't suggesting there were more Covid deaths than all deaths. It's illustrating the amount of confirmed Covid deaths contributed to the excess mortality total.

    Maybe this chart will help you FINALLY get it. This only covers March 1 to April 25th.



    Now let me see if I can explain it so a Derp can understand. The first highlight is the expected number of deaths Texas expects to have over this time frame. Get it?

    When the doctor people and science people counted all the deaths from March 1st to April 25th, they counted 2274 more deaths. You can see on the graph I posted that the pretty red line reaches about that number in late-April/Early May. Of those deaths, 809 were attributed to Covid, you know, the cooties going around right now making people real sick

    Non-Covid deaths make up 1465. We can then look at the CDC and see many of those "non-Covid" deaths (death is the thing that makes people die) were due to pneumonia. Pneumonia is something that makes your breathing very, very bad

    So we ask ourselves, what was causing an unusual amount of pneumonia deaths? Covid? Huffing paint?

    I'm done now. I await some a decadown, but this is as in' clear as I can explain it without resurrecting Dr. in Seuss to explain it with pictures and cute rhymes.
    Prediction: derp octuples down.

  18. #118
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Prediction: derp octuples down.
    Does he do this on purpose? He has to. No one can have this thick of a skull.

  19. #119
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Does he do this on purpose? He has to. No one can have this thick of a skull.
    Trump supporters here are weirdly insecure when making even innocent mistakes-- so insecure they will declare jihad on anyone who points out any mistake. They're all that way to some degree. derp is just wrong more often and would rather die than admit it or let it go.

  20. #120
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    How can you have negative deaths on the gray line?
    0 is the baseline of expected deaths. So let's say Texas is expecting 10,000 deaths over that month (that's what the 0 baseline represents). If you count 9500, you'll plot it on the graph as -500 below the expected.

    See Derp, this is how someone learns. By asking question and not launching into "analysis" about things they might not be clear on.

  21. #121
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    You can disregard point 3 or account for the error of not seeing "filtered for TX" (whatever the that's supposed to mean) in post 87. Read the rest of my points.

    1. The red line is not actual deaths.
    2. COVID death count of 1700 is not the 33 that Google shows in their state for state (So, at "filtered for TX" in the second place)
    3. This graph is a troll job / propaganda piece designed to have people make quick conclusions that a calamity is on our hands. TheGreatYacht
    the red line is actual deaths. it's measuring exactly the same thing the gray line does. except the gray line is the average from 2017-2019 and the red line is the exactly same figure, but measured in 2020

  22. #122
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Does he do this on purpose? He has to. No one can have this thick of a skull.
    his derp nickname was earned, not given

  23. #123
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    his derp nickname was earned, not given
    Well earned. I never had an exchange like this here . A simple in' graph causing this much .

  24. #124
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
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    Are you onboard with the deep state is hiding the real covid numbers theory Blake?
    I'm not onboard with strawmen

  25. #125
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    Why are you so pissy?

    There is a discrepancy. We're trying to explain it. You're losing your .
    I'm not pissy, I'm just trying to get you to flush out your conspiracy theory.

    Let's compare and contrast the right wing conspiracy and your left wing conspiracy. Maybe that will help you develop your story a little better.

    Right Wing Conspiracy
    1.) The covid cases/deaths are overstated
    2.) Healthcare industry is happy to go along with it because there is money to be made on covid diagnosis
    3.) It's all a ploy to install a communist government

    Your Left Wing Conspiracy
    1.) The covid cases/deaths are understated
    2.) Healthcare industry is happy to go along with it because ?????
    3.) It's all ploy to ????

    That's a condensed view of both theories but you can see that your conspiracy theory is lacking. It's just not a good story yet.

    #3 is pretty easy to fill in since all left wing conspiracies end with the Ollyawgawky but you need to come up with something convincing for #2. Midnight suggests just saying that the healthcare industry doesn't know there is a covid pandemic so they just think people have pneumonia but I don't find that compelling. It need to be something more sinister.

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