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Sorry, I already said I don't believe it's a conspiracy theory at all.
You were to busy being pissy to notice.
You want to try again or do you just want to be pissy?
What do you think caused the difference?
For anyone interested, here were some of the conclusions made by the main author of the study:
"There are several potential reasons for this under-count," said Woolf, a professor in the Department of Family Medicine and Population Health at VCU School of Medicine. "Some of it may reflect under-reporting; it takes awhile for some of these data to come in. Some cases might involve patients with COVID-19 who died from related complications, such as heart disease, and those complications may have been listed as the cause of death rather than COVID-19.
"But a third possibility, the one we're quite concerned about, is indirect mortality -- deaths caused by the response to the pandemic," Woolf said. "People who never had the virus may have died from other causes because of the spillover effects of the pandemic, such as delayed medical care, economic hardship or emotional distress."
Sorry, I already said I don't believe it's a conspiracy theory at all.
You were to busy being pissy to notice.
You want to try again or do you just want to be pissy?
What do you think caused the difference?
What? Never suggested anything like that. The undercount is simply a result of how a state chooses to code deaths. If a state could never test someone who died of pneumonia for covid, then it won't be coded as covid.
Some states simply won't code probable deaths. They need to be confirmed. Why this is, who knows. Covid seems to present with obvious symptoms.
So the graph shows a e of about 5k deaths over the average from 2017-19, correct?
The average population increase for texas is 385k additional people per year from 2010-2019. Average, according to the Texas Demographic center. The Tx dept of health in the early teens reports a death rate of about 6.7 per thousand.
So how does the chart define excess deaths? Is it just what ever was over the average of 17-19? 6.7 per thousand would account for about an additional 5.7k deaths per year.
I may be missing something, but the graph doesn't mention a change in death rate but rather excess deaths. How would a population increase be accounted for?
You still haven't put forward a hypothesis to explain why the death rate for non-COVID causes ed at the same time, stupid mother er.
I suppose you might not be a stupid mother er here. You might know they are COVID, but dont' want to admit it.
Which iss it, stupid or lying? I can't tell the difference with you asshat Republicans.
Little to no doubt there are other "knock on" deaths. The problem with this explanation is that the extra death rate is directly mirroring the rise in pandemic deaths.
You can start to exclude things in that extra, like suicides, if you want to get a better handle on the disease, because suicide is not going to be confused with flu/covid, and the scale of the excess unexplained deaths also makes it a poor fit for the data.
If you parse the data, most of the e is due to "flu". Meaning unidentified respiratory illness. It isn't much of a leap to think that was simply untested COVID, especially since we know there is a four to tenfold gap in the "confirmed" case count to our best guess as to what the ACTUAL case count is,
You do realize there's a test for the flu, right?
But let's give you the benefit of the doubt here - let's say there were many deaths uncounted as COVID that should have been, 2x what we currently have listed as COVID deaths to date.
Where's the 2nd wave? Where's the dropoff from social distancing and closing?
Where's any of it?
Also, NY had a similar situation but a lot more excess deaths. Somehow only Southern states matter in this discussion.
WHATABOUTNEWYORK
Keep trying to hide that flower in your attic bud.. lol
We've discussed excess deaths in NY before.
We're discussing excess deaths in Texas now.
What do you think explains the difference between COVID deaths and total excess deaths in Texas?
Link please
is population increase accounted for? The graph says excess deaths and not death rate
Answer the question first, please. I'll get right on it when you answer.
What do you think explains the difference between COVID deaths and total excess deaths in Texas?
Since the average of several years is used I can't see that population increase isn't accounted for.
How do you have the nerve to talk about thick skulls when I showed you a simple definition in black and white according to the CDC's website what excess deaths means. No, it's not an actual death numbers. I can reply more fully later. But your explanation for why it's somehow not so (contrary to CDC's definition) is thatthe graph line behaves in a way to my liking
Gawd, we're all ing stupider just for reading that.
Then why would they not use death rate instead? If you wanted to evaluate a “ e “ in deaths, you would want to compare the rates. Why would you go through all that just to convert back to a “theoretical” total?
Once you show me the data on NY we can discuss Texas. It's likely the difference between official counts and excess deaths have similar causes, neither of which likely nefarious.
You have no idea what you're even arguing, do you?
We are pretty much still in the first wave in many places, especially Texas.
If you want to see the drop off from the distancing and closing look no further than NY.
NYC Has Its First Day In Months With No COVID-19 Deaths
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ovid-19-deaths
Shutting down simply prevented and delayed the first wave in Texas. We opened up and got hit.
This isn't difficult, unless you are trying to cover up and/or spin bad Republican policymaking.
... from the guy who can't read a graph.You have no idea what you're even arguing, do you?
oh i agree, but you can always quibble over source and methodology, though obviously the more you call into question every source, the more pressure you have to provide a "good" one and of course tholdren etc. never do...
as for derp, he still doesnt understand that none of his attempts to undermine the chart ever landed because he doesnt know how to read a legend. either you acknowledge the data and provide an alternate explanation for the e the graph shows, or you discredit the data and provide your superior source.
Why wouldn't you just want to compare numbers of deaths?
I agree.
No one here said anything was nefarious.
No one. You're arguing nothing.
You're being defensive and deflecting just like every Texan Trump supporter here.
I'm not going to jump through any hoops for you. Either give your opinion what is causing the difference in Texas or just tap out.
0 is expected deaths? Are you ing listening to yourself? SERIOUSLY, PULL YOUR ING HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS ALREADY.
Just no. Texas does not expect 0 deaths on any given day. It's not a ing baseline as you put it.
To school you further, 0 is not a baseline for anything. And there is no 'expected deaths' line.
However, there is an excess deaths line that could be 0 on any given day if expected number of deaths and observed number of deaths are the same. And it is relatively close to 0 for 2017-2019 because on those days, the CDC had reasonable expectations.
Now when you create a ed model that calls for thousands of extra deaths per day and it doesn't happen, that's how you get a e in excess deaths (not an actual deaths measurement) in 2020.
Excess deaths are calculated by subtracting the expected number of deaths from the observed number of deaths.https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/potent...ess_deaths.htm
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