Texas Covid actuals. What's "really" happening. Don't believe the numbers.

[ChumpDumper]

0 is expected deaths? Are you ing listening to yourself? SERIOUSLY, PULL YOUR ING HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS ALREADY.

Just no. Texas does not expect 0 deaths on any given day. It's not a ing baseline as you put it.

To school you further, 0 is not a baseline for anything. And there is no 'expected deaths' line.
However, there is an excess deaths line that could be 0 on any given day if expected number of deaths and observed number of deaths are the same. And it is relatively close to 0 for 2017-2019 because on those days, the CDC had reasonable expectations.
Now when you create a ed model that calls for thousands of extra deaths per day and it doesn't happen, that's how you get a e in excess deaths (not an actual deaths measurement) in 2020.

Excess deaths are calculated by subtracting the expected number of deaths from the observed number of deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/potent...ess_deaths.htm

So that red line is not actual deaths, it's how much their projection was off.
Excess deaths are calculated by subtracting the expected number of deaths from the observed number of deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/potent...ess_deaths.htm

So that red line is not actual deaths, it's how much their projection was off.

I didn't think your understanding of this would get worse but here we are.

[Spurtacular]

... from the guy who can't read a graph.

According to that graph you worship, about 1700 people died of COVID in Texas on 6/4/20.
Do you believe that?

[BSfromTX]

Why wouldn't you just want to compare numbers of deaths?

you would, but you have to account for population increase. My calculations are an avg of 385k new Texans every year over the last ten... with a death rate of 6.7 that would increase total deaths each year by 5-6k...that would account for the extra deaths, so if they accounted for that, then how?

[Spurtacular]

I didn't think your understanding of this would get worse but here we are.

You're just biting ankle.

[ChumpDumper]

you would, but you have to account for population increase. My calculations are an avg of 385k new Texans every year over the last ten... with a death rate of 6.7 that would increase total deaths each year by 5-6k...that would account for the extra deaths, so if they accounted for that, then how?

That's the whole point of using data from several years. I can't see the formula for determining expected deaths omitting population growth or decline through migration/immigration. I'm not sure I want to research yet another person's question on this board, so I'm leaving it at that.

[ChumpDumper]

You're just biting ankle.

You're just wrong.

[spurraider21]

According to that graph you worship, about 1700 people died of COVID in Texas on 6/4/20.
Do you believe that?

as of that date. not all on that day

[ChumpDumper]

According to that graph you worship, about 1700 people died of COVID in Texas on 6/4/20.
Do you believe that?

as of that date. not all on that day

Jesus Christ

[BSfromTX]

That's the whole point of using data from several years. I can't see the formula for determining expected deaths omitting population growth or decline through migration/immigration. I'm not sure I want to research yet another person's question on this board, so I'm leaving it at that.

Well if y’all are going to argue about it, I would think that information would be valuable, no?

I personally doubt it is accounted for, but that is my opinion.

[ChumpDumper]

Well if y’all are going to argue about it, I would think that information would be valuable, no?

I personally doubt it is accounted for, but that is my opinion.

Nothing is stopping you from going to the CDC site and looking it up. From what I've seen they have some very detailed do ents.

[BSfromTX]

That's the whole point of using data from several years. I can't see the formula for determining expected deaths omitting population growth or decline through migration/immigration. I'm not sure I want to research yet another person's question on this board, so I'm leaving it at that.

Also, 2020 is not included in the average, so it would still increase either way

[Spurtacular]

We've discussed excess deaths in NY before.

We're discussing excess deaths in Texas now.

What do you think explains the difference between COVID deaths and total excess deaths in Texas?

What do you think total excess deaths is a measurement of?

[ChumpDumper]

What do you think total excess deaths is a measurement of?

Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

[Spurtacular]

as of that date. not all on that day

No, the yellow line is marked COVID-19 TX deaths and not average.

Even if it was a running daily average, that would mean deaths would have to be even higher on those days as the line is trending upward to highs. It'd be mathematically impossible otherwise.

TheGreatYacht See how they smugly laugh the more wrong they are?
And 3 or 4 of these roaches will come laugh too cos that's just how they do.

[Spurtacular]

No, the yellow line is marked COVID-19 TX deaths and not average.

Even if it was a running daily average, that would mean deaths would have to be even higher on those days as the line is trending upward to highs. It'd be mathematically impossible otherwise.

TheGreatYacht See how they smugly laugh the more wrong they are?
And 3 or 4 of these roaches will come laugh too cos that's just how they do.

Jesus Christ

Muhamad, dip

[ChumpDumper]

No, the yellow line is marked COVID-19 TX deaths and not average.

[Spurtacular]

Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

So, are expected deaths the same as actual deaths, then?

[Spurtacular]

Is your contention that the yellow line is running average?

[ChumpDumper]

So, are expected deaths the same as actual deaths, then?

Is your contention that the yellow line is running average?

Are you drunk?

[spurraider21]

next derp is going to look at a line graph of the world's population and come to the conclusion that 7.8 billion people were born today

[Spurtacular]

If you tap out, you're just showing that your here for moral support for Midnight Gulp.

So, are expected deaths the same as actual deaths, then?

Is your contention that the yellow line is running average?

[spurraider21]

If you tap out, you're just showing that your here for moral support for Midnight Gulp.

So, are expected deaths the same as actual deaths, then?

Is your contention that the yellow line is running average?

the yellow line is a running total

[Spurtacular]

**

[spurraider21]

What do you think it is a daily, weekly, monthly average of COVID TX deaths?
Use your words, Lite. Don't just lash out.

the yellow line isn't calling anything an average

[ChumpDumper]

If you tap out, you're just showing that your here for moral support for Midnight Gulp.

So, are expected deaths the same as actual deaths, then?

No.

Is your contention that the yellow line is running average?

No.