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You do understand that Midnight Gulp is calling excess deaths actual deaths and that you disagree with him, then?
TBF, it's not labeled total (for the line). But that makes sense.
In any event, it is not be compared to actual deaths like Midnight Gulp claims.
You do understand that Midnight Gulp is calling excess deaths actual deaths and that you disagree with him, then?
the yellow line reflects actual deaths. all those in excess of expected deaths (as defined by the gray line which shows how many people typically died during these months in previous years)
so if after years of data, and controlling for changes in population, if you determined that the "expected deaths" in a typical year is 10,000 people in june, but then instead, you observed 20,000 deaths in june, your "excess deaths" would be 10,000
He and I have explained what the term excess deaths means.
Excess deaths are actual deaths but not all of them.
It's getting to be impossible to keep up with the number of things you have gotten wrong here.
.
There are plenty of other possibilities that experts have mentioned that you're going to ignore as to why death totals might not reach New York levels again, even as covid case numbers rise
It's not at all possible that you're wrong. Everyone else is.If you tap out, you're just showing that your here for moral support for Midnight Gulp.
So, are expected deaths the same as actual deaths, then?
Is your contention that the yellow line is running average?
We're on the same page with all of that.
Would you then agree that the red line in the graph is at about 3800 because that is the difference between expected deaths and actual deaths up to that point for 2020?
I just got done asking for your explanation and you quoted the definition I listed.
Butthat you're trying so hard to ride Midnight Gulp.
the red line = observed (actual) deaths - expected deaths
also a running total (why it only goes up)
I've made numerous errors outside of my main argument in this thread. And I've owned all of them.
I'm not a weak man like you. I'm able to own my sh**.
TheGreatYacht
And this brings me to my main point for which Midnight Gulp made this lash-out thread.
He is claiming that excess deaths and actual deaths are the same. They're not. You're the first besides me to make that right call.
You don't know what you're talking about at all here.
We do.
excess deaths = total actual deaths - expected deaths
I'm sure he agrees.
I have no idea why you think differently.
every excess death is an actual death though
the reason why the "excess death" stat exists is to show that you hare having an outlier year. saying "we've had 100,000 people die in our state in march" sounds bad, but if accounting for your state's history, it turns out that 99,900 people tend to die every march (when adjusted for population variances in those years), its not entirely useful to point to 100k deaths as evidence of some massive public health issue, because your "excess deaths" is only 100. that doesnt mean those 100 excess deaths aren't "actual deaths." they absolutely are
the point of that chart is to show that right now texas has over 5000 of those "excess deaths" this year from march through present (or present at the time the data was gathered), but they only reported about 2k covid deaths, indicating there are another 3000+ excess deaths unaccounted for by covid. just a particularly deadly year for texas (not including covid)
"I'm not a weak man. I'm able to own my "
[Proceeds to send out a distress call to TGY]
He doesn't agree. He's consistently argued that the red line is actual deaths.
He even made an image doubling down on that.
Are you not paying attention at all, or you just doing your psychopath thing and having it both ways?
I'll refer you to your mentor who really is just parroting what both of us have said.
Excess death is excess death and actual death is actual death. They'd just call it actual death if they were one in the same through and through.
Now if we were immortal and no deaths were expected, then yes excess death and actual death would be the same (zero).
All you need to recognize from the graph is that it is telling you that current reported covid deaths in Texas actually happened two months ago.
Since mortality rate does not change that means that the current number of cases that is stressing our healthcare system actually happened two months ago but everyone kept it a secret.
That is their conspiracy theory.
try reading the whole thing without tagging Yauschwitz for moral supportI'll refer you to your mentor who really is just parroting what both of us have said.
Excess death is excess death and actual death is actual death. They'd just call it actual death if they were one in the same through and through.
Now if we were immortal and no deaths were expected, then yes excess death and actual death would be the same (zero).
Excess deaths are 100. Actual deaths are 100,000 in that scenario.
The metric of excess death is never canceling out actual deaths in any capacity.
Seriously, nobody philos like you.
Last edited by Spurtacular; 07-14-2020 at 06:56 PM.
I did and responded. But I knew you were bull ting me from the start.
Excess death and actual death are not the same stat. That is what Midnight Gulp is arguing. That is not what you're arguing at least until your recent philo attempt.
No.
I can't believe you're this stupid, so I'm chalking it up to your being pissy.
Why are you so pissy?
He's still going.
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