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  1. #26
    HAHAHAHAHA Spurms lefty's Avatar
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    Ah, a Moses reference

  2. #27
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    Spurs will actually need to win 3 more games than the Grizz to take the 8th spot. Standings will be based upon winning percentage since teams will have finished the season with a different number of games played.

    If Memphis goes 2-4 in their remaining games, they would finish at .466 (out of 73 games played).

    If San Antonio goes 4-2 in their remaining games, Spurs would finish at .465 (out of 71 games played) and still be a hair behind.

    But to answer your question, yes...even in the unlikely event that the Spurs manage to leapfrog Memphis, they would still play the 9th seed for a play-in. The rules don't specify who plays, only that in the case of a 9th seed being within 4 games of the 8th seed, a double-elimination play off will be played.
    Good catch, that 0.466 vs 0.465 scenario shows that in terms of winning percentages, you want to have played more games if you're below 0.500 and less if you're above. Unequal games played almost never happens in the NBA though.

    I'd still give the Spurs a 5-10% chance of making it to #8; 3 more wins than the Grizz over the next 6 is unlikely but not impossible.

    I'll guess at a 30% chance or so of finishing #9, and a 0% chance of not making the play-in and also finishing #9; if the Spurs are more than 4 games behind Memphis they won't be in 9th place unless all of POR/SAC/NO really drop off.

    Using a 50% chance of winning a single game against Memphis (#8 has a 75% chance of winning the play-in), and the midpoint of the 5-10% range above, gives a 13.125% chance of the Spurs making the bracket of 16: 0.075 * 0.75 + 0.3 * 0.25 = 0.13125.

  3. #28
    You never know JPB's Avatar
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    Good catch, that 0.466 vs 0.465 scenario shows that in terms of winning percentages, you want to have played more games if you're below 0.500 and less if you're above. Unequal games played almost never happens in the NBA though.

    I'd still give the Spurs a 5-10% chance of making it to #8; 3 more wins than the Grizz over the next 6 is unlikely but not impossible.

    I'll guess at a 30% chance or so of finishing #9, and a 0% chance of not making the play-in and also finishing #9; if the Spurs are more than 4 games behind Memphis they won't be in 9th place unless all of POR/SAC/NO really drop off.

    Using a 50% chance of winning a single game against Memphis (#8 has a 75% chance of winning the play-in), and the midpoint of the 5-10% range above, gives a 13.125% chance of the Spurs making the bracket of 16: 0.075 * 0.75 + 0.3 * 0.25 = 0.13125.
    Forget stats mate, for that restart... They might be telling over 82 games but it's mainly about momentum at that point.

    A team might be on a good roll and a 5 or 6 game wininning streak during those 8 games and inversely... That would balance itself over 82 games but a bad run in the bubble and you're done.

  4. #29
    2 Doors Down BillMc's Avatar
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    Ah, a Moses reference

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