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I have a wife to call me.You're wife's calling you. I think she wants you to tell off your Trump-loving dad again.
You have your hand.
How would they have known that would work back then, Darrin?
I have a wife to call me.You're wife's calling you. I think she wants you to tell off your Trump-loving dad again.
You have your hand.
They probably couldn't have known, tbh.
Maybe herd immunity, I think it's too early to tell. Sweden's curve hasn't been falling for very long, but i hope for our sake they have herd immunity since it means we should have it by September/October.
Regardless, lets say it indeed is herd immunity, Sweden's current deaths per capita number would mean 184,000 dead Americans (estimating a 327mm population). That's a pretty heavy price to pay for possible herd immunity vs. just wearing a mask and social distancing until we have a vaccine. That 184k number also ignores how fat and unhealthy Americans are vs. Swedes. Our per capita death rate would be higher than Sweden's if we went with the same policy it went with imo.
A slight correction: Sweden's number takes into account the social distancing (however voluntary) and large group restrictions they did implement-- it could've been even worse.
Yes, and plenty of people are still wearing medical-grade face coverings. If they said back in March "just face coverings but you don't need medical-grade masks, pls don't go out and buy those" it would have triggered a run on medical-grade masks, it's not like Americans are good at following directions
I agree with all this, but expect we will exceed 200K deaths. Just based on how unhealthy the American public is.
Yes and yes, to a reasonable degree
Agreed, my hypothetical was trying to show that in a best case scenario, we're looking at 184k dead Americans using the Sweden method, and to your point there's still plenty of economic carnage and interruptions to daily life. It's not like Sweden kept everything chugging along. Unemployment has gone up and its economy has contracted.
You're presenting a false dilemma. It's not like zero deaths with mask, 184K without.
And how we are counting "died with COVID" as "died of COVID". The IFR formula uses cause of death, not just correlation.
I've been wanting to ask you this, since I've noticed a sizable number of asymptomatic cases in nursing homes in SA. Is there some common denominator amongst these cases?
There's also the risk that it would have overloaded our healthcare system with too many patients at once. The concern I have is how the heartland handles COVID-19 now that it's starting to spread to rural communities. A few rural communities that are near meat packing plants have already been hammered because of how quickly the virus spread among the plant workers.
If it's true that 20m people have/had COVID, even if no one died from COVID, there would still be 176K deaths from that group in a year.
RG math incoming..
US has a death rate of about 860 per 100K peeps. 20m people would be 860x200. That's 172K deaths. That's non-covid deaths. So if you count everyone who died with COVID as someone who died OF COVID (not that it's being done everywhere), you'd still have roughly the same deaths you have now. We know it's not that one sided, but counting method is important when large numbers come into play. This is especially true if you're going to yourself over daily returns.
This. Some of our border counties are getting hammered. They just don't have the resources.
From what I've seen, nothing unique or useful. The younger residents with less existing conditions are more likely to be asymptomatic while the older ones with advanced dementia who were already on ho e or about to be on ho e are more likely to need hospitalization/ultimately die. This obviously isn't always the case but it's the general trend.
Deaths and Mortality
Data are for the U.S.
Number of deaths: 2,813,503
Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population
Life expectancy: 78.6 years
Infant Mortality rate: 5.79 deaths per 1,000 live births
US health officials believe 20 million Americans have had coronavirus, nearly 10 times as many infections as confirmed cases
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coron...e3a-story.html
Thanks, was just curious based on your experience.
What conclusions do you draw therefrom, Profe?
So being "old", let's say over 70, isn't really a death sentence.
I'm more inclined to think the comorbidities, e.g overweight, hypertension, diabetes, cancer, are more important factors.
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