Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 31
  1. #1
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    22,310
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

    Currently has Biden with a 71% chance and Trump with a 29% chance....nearly identical odds going into election day in....wait for it....2016.

    Biden needs to get out of the goddamn freezer already.

  2. #2
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    89,421
    Interesting disclaimer on that forecast.

  3. #3
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
    My Team
    Sacramento Kings
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Post Count
    20,548
    "I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said. Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission."

    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/je...215711167.html

  4. #4
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Post Count
    43,429
    But wait! Should you even trust the polls? Hillary Clinton led in the polls in 2016, right? Yes. But Clinton had only a small advantage in most surveys — Trump’s win was well within the range of normal polling error.
    That has been true all along. Biden has been polling at 50% for the majority of the time. If Trump manages to drag Biden or even overcomes that percentage than he clearly deserves his due. He won't.

  5. #5
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Post Count
    144,590
    TSA counters with billionaire feelings.

  6. #6
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Post Count
    96,013
    "I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said. Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission."

    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/je...215711167.html
    denial of peter

  7. #7
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Post Count
    144,590
    Wait, they took a poll of people asking if they lie to pollsters?

  8. #8
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    22,310
    "I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said. Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission."

    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/je...215711167.html
    I read this article too and while a lot of recent polling in the last few weeks doesn't make sense*, but the bolded part is ridiculous. People who identify as Conservative or moderate conservative make up ~40% of the country, if not more. If even half of all conservatives (let alone two thirds) are saying they aren't supporting Trump to pollsters, it'd be at least 20 point polling error in Biden's favor. Every poll that I've read the detail on has 80+% of all people who identify as conservative voting for Trump.

    *To clarify, I'm saying that in the sense that it's unclear to me what the error is, it could be a pro Biden or pro Trump error. When the same pollster conducts a poll in Arizona with Biden up 7 points and a poll in Minnesota with Biden up 3 points over the same timeframe, one of them is wrong. Either the poll in Minnesota is slanted for Trump, or the poll in Arizona is slanted for Biden, but there's no way Biden is doing 4 points better in Arizona than he's doing in Minnesota.

  9. #9
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Post Count
    43,429
    I read this article too and while a lot of recent polling in the last few weeks doesn't make sense*, but the bolded part is ridiculous. People who identify as Conservative or moderate conservative make up ~40% of the country, if not more. If even half of all conservatives (let alone two thirds) are saying they aren't supporting Trump to pollsters, it'd be at least 20 point polling error in Biden's favor. Every poll that I've read the detail on has 80+% of all people who identify as conservative voting for Trump.

    *To clarify, I'm saying that in the sense that it's unclear to me what the error is, it could be a pro Biden or pro Trump error. When the same pollster conducts a poll in Arizona with Biden up 7 points and a poll in Minnesota with Biden up 3 points over the same timeframe, one of them is wrong. Either the poll in Minnesota is slanted for Trump, or the poll in Arizona is slanted for Biden, but there's no way Biden is doing 4 points better in Arizona than he's doing in Minnesota.
    I have seen a bunch of new and unproven pollsters too. Who knows how accurate they are. That adds even more uncertainly.

  10. #10
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    22,310
    I have seen a bunch of new and unproven pollsters too. Who knows how accurate they are. That adds even more uncertainly.
    The pollster I'm mentioning has an A- rating on fivethirtyeight (Emerson College).

    Imo the unanswered question is whether the pollsters have accounted for the outsized rural voter turnout Trump (and as a result down ballot Republicans) get. If the polls we're seeing already account for that, Trump definitely has an uphill battle. If they haven't, then this is a coin flip and Biden should be worried. Even in 2018, the pollsters weren't as inaccurate as 2016 but they still didn't fully account for Trumpsized rural voter turnout. Republicans outperformed polls in states with large pro Trump rural populations (Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana), while Democrats outperformed polls in states with insignificant rural populations (Arizona & Nevada).

  11. #11
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Post Count
    43,429
    The pollster I'm mentioning has an A- rating on fivethirtyeight (Emerson College).

    Imo the unanswered question is whether the pollsters have accounted for the outsized rural voter turnout Trump (and as a result down ballot Republicans) get. If the polls we're seeing already account for that, Trump definitely has an uphill battle. If they haven't, then this is a coin flip and Biden should be worried. Even in 2018, the pollsters weren't as inaccurate as 2016 but they still didn't fully account for Trumpsized rural voter turnout. Republicans outperformed polls in states with large pro Trump rural populations (Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana), while Democrats outperformed polls in states with insignificant rural populations (Arizona & Nevada).
    There is some comfort then that he has a 9 point lead in Pennsylvania there. But I question the sample size.

    Between 600 and 800 people.

    I really dont believe that Minnesota poll either. Specially when you consider that the senate race there is a close shave according to the same poll.

  12. #12
    coffee's for closers FrostKing's Avatar
    My Team
    Chicago Bulls
    Join Date
    Aug 2018
    Post Count
    17,532
    "I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said. Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission."

    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/je...215711167.html
    Exactly what I've been saying

    Silent majority bout to shock again

    Flashbacks of 2004

  13. #13
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Post Count
    93,154
    Exactly what I've been saying

    Silent majority bout to shock again

    Flashbacks of 2004
    They have been the majority in exactly one presidential election in the last 30 years.

  14. #14
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    22,310
    Exactly what I've been saying

    Silent majority bout to shock again

    Flashbacks of 2004
    bovada is currently offering +375 odds for a bet that Republicans win the popular vote. Go put your money where your mouth is if you feel so confident in it.

  15. #15
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    22,310
    What's Biden doing to combat Trump's bump in the polls? Gibberish about "marriage equality" and iden y politics. Holy the people running the DNC are tone deaf as to what people outside their bubble care about.

    This has 2016 written all over it.




  16. #16
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Post Count
    96,013
    messaging at this point needs to be related to covid, economic relief, and the handling of elections

  17. #17
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Post Count
    76,231
    "I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said. Gundlach said he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission."

    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/je...215711167.html
    If this board is a microcosm of the general voting population then that statement is probably true

  18. #18
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    22,310
    messaging at this point needs to be related to covid, economic relief, and the handling of elections
    How are the people running the DNC / Biden's campaign this tone deaf? Of all the things to focus on right now, they're recycling the gay marriage card?

  19. #19
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Post Count
    43,429
    How are the people running the DNC / Biden's campaign this tone deaf? Of all the things to focus on right now, they're recycling the gay marriage card?
    You need to calm down.

    They have already proven they are way more competent than Hillary's campaign. It's been a day. They need to hype Kamala for their incoming rollout this afternoon.

    If Biden is still talking about how much of a good blow jobber Kamala is a week from today than that's different.

  20. #20
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    22,310
    You need to calm down.

    They have already proven they are way more competent than Hillary's campaign. It's been a day. They need to hype Kamala for their incoming rollout this afternoon.

    If Biden is still talking about how much of a good blow jobber Kamala is a week from today than that's different.
    It hasn't been a day. Trump has been sabotaging the postal service since June, and comatose Joe hasn't even commented on it because he's in the freezer.

  21. #21
    Veteran SpursforSix's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Post Count
    21,158
    Bend over, I'll ing show you denial of peter

  22. #22
    coffee's for closers FrostKing's Avatar
    My Team
    Chicago Bulls
    Join Date
    Aug 2018
    Post Count
    17,532
    bovada is currently offering +375 odds for a bet that Republicans win the popular vote. Go put your money where your mouth is if you feel so confident in it.
    I'm full of bravado

  23. #23
    6X ST MVP
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Post Count
    81,091
    Nate Silver is an all-time cuck, tbh.

  24. #24
    Veteran hater's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Post Count
    70,737
    What's Biden doing to combat Trump's bump in the polls? Gibberish about "marriage equality" and iden y politics. Holy the people running the DNC are tone deaf as to what people outside their bubble care about.

    This has 2016 written all over it.



    called it

  25. #25
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Post Count
    152,607
    How are the people running the DNC / Biden's campaign this tone deaf? Of all the things to focus on right now, they're recycling the gay marriage card?
    Well, it's the same people that didn't send Joe to talk to the good ol' coach when he thought he wanted run...

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •