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The Warriors window is closing. Could be a loooong time before more championships become likely. Best to earn everything you can while the bird is in the hand.
Any idea what the warriors tax bill will be this year? I’m thinking considerable, like maybe doubling their payroll. At some point, and I think they’re there, it becomes $3.50 for Every dollar over the tax. Ten million over the tax becomes a thirty five million dollar tax bill. Twenty million becomes a seventy million dollar tab.
There are different kinds of desperation.
The Warriors window is closing. Could be a loooong time before more championships become likely. Best to earn everything you can while the bird is in the hand.
League sources have put the decline in the cap at anywhere between $3 million and $12 million.
Via - Letourneau
I don't think it's likely to happen, but the Wiggins deal is growing on me, tbh. Even in a "weak draft" the prospect of drafting a top-two pick is always enticing, especially for a rebuilding team like the Spurs. Next year, they might not want to tank or do it unsuccessfully (or be screwed by the new odds, like the Knicks), making this a very valuable opportunity. Wiggins would be expensive, but it'd come down to the FO signing off on the deal and accepting to pay that cost.
I'm actually interested in how the locker-room dynamics would be, if the trade went down. I'm thinking the Spurs would trade both LMA and Gay, hopefully avoid shipping out #11, and getting #2 and Wigs. The important part is that they lose a lot of vet-presence, which had been stable for years, and especially if DeRozan walks or is S&T'd. There's a power vacuum there, a lot of place for guys to step up over. Wiggins is also known as a not-great locker room presence, content with just earning his money and not working hard on his development, which could potentially create issues if the Spurs players don't address it. How is a gym-rat like Keldon gonna react to that? How is a certified IG Baller like DJ going to react?. Tbh, I'm not expecting Wiggins to develop in the slightest while in SA, he's a sunk cost to me, just hope he doesn't have an outright negative impact on the team beyond playing 15-20m a night. Could he even play off the bench? I could see Pop doing that, as a middle-finger kinda thing to light him up...
The trade would also leave Patty as the Designated Vet, and kill any hopes of him ever getting traded, for those who're still holding out that hope. But getting Wiseman (or Deni?) is worth the gamble, IMO. Then you draft a solid role-player with #11 and you're suddenly halfway through your rebuild, before you ever start tanking.
I don’t see GS accepting Gay. The object for them is to shed salary, not use their exception acquiring more. Wiggins and LMA are more or less an offset, except for years remaining. The way I see it going down is Wiggins and #2 for LMA, with SA either keeping #11, or flipping it in return for Minny’s 2021 pick that GS holds.I don't think it's likely to happen, but the Wiggins deal is growing on me, tbh. Even in a "weak draft" the prospect of drafting a top-two pick is always enticing, especially for a rebuilding team like the Spurs. Next year, they might not want to tank or do it unsuccessfully (or be screwed by the new odds, like the Knicks), making this a very valuable opportunity. Wiggins would be expensive, but it'd come down to the FO signing off on the deal and accepting to pay that cost.
I'm actually interested in how the locker-room dynamics would be, if the trade went down. I'm thinking the Spurs would trade both LMA and Gay, hopefully avoid shipping out #11, and getting #2 and Wigs. The important part is that they lose a lot of vet-presence, which had been stable for years, and especially if DeRozan walks or is S&T'd. There's a power vacuum there, a lot of place for guys to step up over. Wiggins is also known as a not-great locker room presence, content with just earning his money and not working hard on his development, which could potentially create issues if the Spurs players don't address it. How is a gym-rat like Keldon gonna react to that? How is a certified IG Baller like DJ going to react?
The trade would also leave Patty as the Designated Vet, and kill any hopes of him ever getting traded, for those who're still holding out that hope. But getting Wiseman (or Deni?) is worth the gamble, IMO. Then you draft a solid role-player with #11 and you're suddenly halfway through your rebuild, before you ever start tanking.
This is how I see it as well. I think they would like Gay but would not want him at his salary. I would try and get Miny 21 pick included but think they would say no at that point unless out 11 is included. We could possibly send Gay somewhere else for more picks this year even if they are later in the draft.
What? I would still bet on the Warriors before anybody else. Two top three players in their position, one top 5, the likely top 3 coach, and a huge free agency destination plus the #2 pick
You’re completely whiffing on the GS situation. They are worse than cap bound,they are tax bound, likely in the area of $3.50 penalty per $1 over. That $9M #2 pick suddenly becomes a $40M/year liability, tax included. That’s an alarm bell ringing in a down NBA economy. They were kind of counting on that new arena to pay the bills, and now, who knows how long that will take.
The two top 3 players, assuming they’re the Splash Brothers, are both coming off major injuries. Draymond isn’t top 5. He proved what a lot of us knew all along: he’s fools gold. His game is 100% a function of playing with the REAL stars on his team. He’s a piece,not a building block, or a star.
I just don't see a guy at #2 that looks like a future franchise player. Wiseman might be really good, but teams aren't built around traditional 7' centers anymore. The guard comps are Oladipo for Edwards-- nice, but not mindblowing. Ball feels like a lesser version of Ben Simmons to me, Obi Toppin looks like a career defensive liability whose ceiling is big numbers guy who doesn't win championships, and I'm not sold on Avdija. If there was a player that I legitimately thought could be a foundation for high level winning basketball for the next decade I'd be all in on taking on the Wiggins contract, but I'm just not feeling it for this draft. If it happens, I hope I'm wrong.
Last edited by R. DeMurre; 10-25-2020 at 04:24 PM.
I can see that. Tbh, as long as we don't ship out #11, I wouldn't mind keeping Gay. I don't really trust the Minny pick to be as good as advertised, I'd rather trade down with Boston for example if we're already getting #2. Get a top-of-the-crop prospect and two additional, inexpensive first round picks to compliment the young core, and come into next season with a mostly young team that's ready to develop.
Right, but look at their ages. You have to ring now or it's over after about 3 yrs.
I'd be aiming for either Wiseman or Avdija. I don't really like Edwards, Ball is an absolute hard pass, Toppin has no place in the top-2 of a draft IMO. I think there's a lot of unknowns surrounding Wiseman due to the low amount of games he played this season, but he's got a really impressive physical profile. I don't know whether he can be a franchise player (it doesn't look like anyone in this draft can be, but then again, most drafts have one or more "certain future stars" that end up busting, and the opposite as well) - but he at the least can fill up the C position for a good decade, provide a big plus on both ends of the floor, and really compliment our core of mostly guards. You throw a good role-playing PF in there (hopefully someone like Smith with #11 if we manage to keep it), and that's a really good core with huge room for growth. Championship-caliber? Who knows, probably not, but creating a team as close to contention as possible and waiting for the right chance has been the MO for a lot of championship-calibre teams, most recently the Heat.
imo Wiggins is a huge albatross contract for 3 full years, not just 2. When he's an expiring the only thing he would be good for is to take on more bad money and an asset or two, and that once again locks up a lot of cap room on a bad contract.
Not buying the ball hype either, and I actually think he is a candidate to slide out of the top 5.
When you look at the top 10 mocked, consensus picks - he has seemingly the most glaring weaknesses.
And we are not talking 2 or 3 here...
He will need to have the keys to the offence to be successful early and who in the top 6 could that come from?
Man, if we come away from this draft with both James Wiseman and Jalen Smith, I wouldn't know how to act. I've actually been thinking about that for the past couple of weeks.
We'd be set for a decade in the frontcourt.
Think the 2 safest players in this draft are Halliburton and Tyler Bey. They will both contribute right away. Halliburton can lead a franchise but Bey won’t be franchise player but should be a solid starter. Nesmith and Toppin could be good on the right teams but they are complementary players and not franchise players.
late to the party, but if GS is wacky enough to do #2 + Wiggins for just LMA then I think it's an easy call to do the deal.
Wiggins is at least a decent NBA player, unlike some of the other albatross contracts in the league like Batum who has been finished for years.
Now if GS was insisting on getting #11 back ... eh, I don't know. I'd try to buy them off with the second rounder + rights to Milutinov or something like that instead.
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Earlier I think in this thread was a suggestion of Walker for PJ Tucker or something like that, I think that'd be a terrible deal. Tucker is fully washed now, D'Antoni ran him into the ground, I don't want him.
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I'm not opposed to moving Walker. I suggested it before and it may be far-fetched but I think Detroit could be in the market for a player like Walker, a guy on the verge of busting out with years of team control left. Walker+41+rights-to-Milutinov for #7 is my ideal scenario. Walker would score 15 a game there, maybe more. But he's kind of bottlenecked here. But still valuable enough to demand a solid return for a guy who just needs the opportunity.
Taking on one of the worst contracts in the league for the right to draft a player at #2, who very well might turn out to be worse than the players taken far later is just dumb.
This is not a draft you trade up for. And it is definitely not a draft you trade up for whole also taking on a huge stinker of a contract. I pray the spurs are not that dumb
Westbrook is one of the worst contracts in the league, as is Wall. Both of them have health issues and make north of $40M per year. While I’m not a fan of Wiggins game, he’s at least young and healthy, and not in the same zip code as those Super Max deals.
No doubt!!
I agree that if the Spurs take on Wiggins, then they are very very high on a rookie. And if that is the case, I would be excited. But here in Spurstalk, people here have this weird perception that we are not going anywhere, therefore just get a high pick at the cost of our best player and at the cost of getting one of the worst contracts. It's the wrong mentality.
Wiggins contract is a net negative. It is untradable for 2 seasons without giving up an asset in return. His value becomes somewhat even only on his expiring season.
You have to assume that rookie at number 2 is going to be worth 40mil in cap space gone. That is over a third of your cap.
Usually, when you give up by the far the best player in the trade, you want two of these three things.
1) A promising prospect.
2) Cap Space
3) Draft pick.
Spurs would be getting a promising prospect. No further future 1st that would be worthwhile. And no cap space flexibility for 3 seasons.
LMA has pretty much said he’s finishing his career in Portland, so it almost certain he walks next summer, anyway. I don’t see any scenario where he re-signs here again. Not much value for us. He’s more valuable to GS, and he might re-sign there if he gets a ring. Then again, he might not. He should be considered useful salary ballast for purposes of this deal. That makes it GS conveying #2 for two years rental of LMA’s salary slot, plus a relatively young, healthy player, who to this point hasn’t been very efficient.
Note: we need to either keep #11, or get Minny’s 2021 first rounder. I’m not down with a straight pick swap.
That's been my line of thinking as well. Wiggins is an albatross - no way around it. But the Spurs in particular are probably one of the teams that would value open cap space the least, since chances of landing a FA are slim-to-none, especially while we're rebuilding - which also allows us to "splurge" in to Wiggins' deal without having to compromise the integrity of the team (if I'm not mistaken, the only contracts we'd have to sign while he was here would be Lonnie's once his fourth year is up, since Keldon would still be on his rookie deal two years from now, and we'll have to re-sign White/Jak either way this summer).
So getting a decade+ of solid frontcourt play, with All-Star upside in Wiseman, all while retaining all of our picks and the possibility to tank if necessary, is extremely enticing. I can see why other posters are risk-averse on Wiggins, but in the NBA and being a small market team, you gotta throw the big stones if you want to make ripples, tbh...
there is no risk, NO ONE really relevant wants to play for Pop and play in San Antonio, this trade (# 2 + Wiggins for Aldridge) would be an easy YES, without discussion.
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