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  1. #51
    Spurs fan in Las Vegas Drom John's Avatar
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    When the Spurs didn't make the playoffs, I didn't respond to the, now who's your #2 team you're rooting for in the playoffs, because the Hawks didn't make the playoffs either.
    Yes, the Hawks want their draft pick.
    No, the Hawks don't want Murray.
    no, the Hawks don't want Murray for the 6th pick.
    The "Spur" the Hawks are targeting is Bertans.

  2. #52
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Drom, nice to have some ATL perspective. I have seen from Hawks fans on RGM that they don't really want their pick, would entertain trading down and would be interested in young vets rather than rookies, as they want to make a playoff push.


    Were you just giving your opinion, or did their front office say something?

  3. #53
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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  4. #54
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    The closer I look at it, the more I think there's a non-0% chance Obi falls to the Spurs. I wouldn't classify it as a good chance but it's difficult to find a landing spot for him in the top ten.

    Minnesota: Would they really put a non-defensive big next to KAT? That'd be dumb.

    Golden State: They have Draymond and Obi wouldn't be too helpful as a small ball center.

    Charlotte: MJ likes going with the most well-known college player but, then again, they just drafted PJ Washington in the lottery last year and he was a started all year. You can't start Washington and Obi together.

    Cleveland: Their guards are so bad at defense that picking Obi would defensive suicide. Plus, with Love and Drummond, things would get awkward pretty quickly.

    Chicago: They already have an offensive, no-defense big in Markkanen.

    Atlanta: Obi next to John Collins would be the worst defensive big pairing in the league.

    Detroit: They have Blake Griffin and, more importantly, they desperately need guards.

    Knicks: They have a ton of power forward who are light on defense. Would they draft another one? It's possible but they too need guards.

    Washington: Rui looks like he's their power forward of the future. Add in Bertans, who they are expected to re-sign, and I don't see the fit here.

    Phoenix: They have Saric and Cam Johnson. Ayton doesn't have good defensive instincts so pairing him with Obi would be dangerous.

    The best fits for Obi are behind the Spurs: Portland, Boston, New Orleans, Orlando, etc.

    The most likely team to pick Obi before the Spurs I guess would be the Cavs. He's an in-state product and it's not like they know what they're doing anyways. The Knicks are another team that would just draft him for the name.

  5. #55
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    The closer I look at it, the more I think there's a non-0% chance Obi falls to the Spurs. I wouldn't classify it as a good chance but it's difficult to find a landing spot for him in the top ten.

    Minnesota: Would they really put a non-defensive big next to KAT? That'd be dumb.

    Golden State: They have Draymond and Obi wouldn't be too helpful as a small ball center.

    Charlotte: MJ likes going with the most well-known college player but, then again, they just drafted PJ Washington in the lottery last year and he was a started all year. You can't start Washington and Obi together.

    Cleveland: Their guards are so bad at defense that picking Obi would defensive suicide. Plus, with Love and Drummond, things would get awkward pretty quickly.

    Chicago: They already have an offensive, no-defense big in Markkanen.

    Atlanta: Obi next to John Collins would be the worst defensive big pairing in the league.

    Detroit: They have Blake Griffin and, more importantly, they desperately need guards.

    Knicks: They have a ton of power forward who are light on defense. Would they draft another one? It's possible but they too need guards.

    Washington: Rui looks like he's their power forward of the future. Add in Bertans, who they are expected to re-sign, and I don't see the fit here.

    Phoenix: They have Saric and Cam Johnson. Ayton doesn't have good defensive instincts so pairing him with Obi would be dangerous.

    The best fits for Obi are behind the Spurs: Portland, Boston, New Orleans, Orlando, etc.

    The most likely team to pick Obi before the Spurs I guess would be the Cavs. He's an in-state product and it's not like they know what they're doing anyways. The Knicks are another team that would just draft him for the name.
    You're making the same mistake with some of these teams that you (correctly) have accused some Spurs fans of doing with this one.

    In many of these cases, it's not about what's currently in place, but about taking the best talent available.

    Not saying he necessarily is that early on, but he will be at some point before 11.

  6. #56
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Maybe I should watch this guy more intensively since it's sounding more realistic that he will drop ... It was his off the charts offense statistically that made him rise my board but maybe I should be more careful given his terrible reputation on defense. And would his offense really be impactful in the NBA? Would he be able to score on more physical defense? Or will it be empty stats akin to Blake Griffin? Would an offense centered around a high flying stretch big be champion caliber? Hmm...

  7. #57
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    You're making the same mistake with some of these teams that you (correctly) have accused some Spurs fans of doing with this one.

    In many of these cases, it's not about what's currently in place, but about taking the best talent available.

    Not saying he necessarily is that early on, but he will be at some point before 11.
    It is admittedly difficult to predict what these ever-lottery teams will do but there are some really bad fits factoring in players who appear to be a part of a current core (Collins, Rui, Markkanen and maybe Washington). I agree that Obi is a heavy favorite to be in the top ten -- but it's conceivable that he'll drop down, especially because there's not an obvious landing spot that he won't get past. By contrast, an equal-ish talent like Killian Hayes is probably less likely to drop out considering about half those teams need point guards.

    Plus, mocks have slowly lowered Obi in the last month or so. It's not too uncommon to find him going ~8th now: https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-mock...an-obi-toppin/ . Add in that Obi has some characteristics that have typically led to players dropping (old, smaller college, not a known prospect coming out of high school) and I think there's a possibility that he'll slip.

  8. #58
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    I think Obi has just as good a chance to be available as Williams has to be off the board (I'm looking at Phoenix).

    I am not the biggest Obi fan, don't really believe in his point generation at the next level. Windmills and between the legs dunks against non-NBA level nobodies at Rhode Island and GW are fun, and he can pass and hit threes, but ... Ehhh.

    However, if he's there, it could mean the guys I like better are gone. So I probably wouldn't be that upset with him at 11. As of now, I'd rather him than Nesmith or Bey.

  9. #59
    Veteran Degoat's Avatar
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    Obi is my number one player id love for the spurs to end up with, I can’t see him falling to 11th tho. In a supposedly “weak draft” someone will grab him top 7 imo

  10. #60
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    It is admittedly difficult to predict what these ever-lottery teams will do but there are some really bad fits factoring in players who appear to be a part of a current core (Collins, Rui, Markkanen and maybe Washington). I agree that Obi is a heavy favorite to be in the top ten -- but it's conceivable that he'll drop down, especially because there's not an obvious landing spot that he won't get past. By contrast, an equal-ish talent like Killian Hayes is probably less likely to drop out considering about half those teams need point guards.

    Plus, mocks have slowly lowered Obi in the last month or so. It's not too uncommon to find him going ~8th now: https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-mock...an-obi-toppin/ . Add in that Obi has some characteristics that have typically led to players dropping (old, smaller college, not a known prospect coming out of high school) and I think there's a possibility that he'll slip.
    I'd say it's more than the drafts have calmed. Back when I was first hyping him, he was in the back half of the top-10. You've listed factors for why he might fall, and you can add to it at his position and body type are huge bust candidates. There's an ocean of athletic 6-9ish forwards that get hyped up as big and become at best JAGs in the NBA. Derrick Williams, Thomas Robinson, Anthony Bennett, Jabari Parker, Marqueese Chriss ... all the way through to Bagley and Hachimura. Almost every draft has a guy like that. And while it's not fair to judge a player for what guys who looked like him did, many of the teams ahead of the Spurs have been burned by taking at least one of this archetype recently. A lot of clubs could talk themselves into passing on Toppin just as a lot of them talked themselves into passing on Clarke. Maybe they'll even be right to do so.

  11. #61
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    It is admittedly difficult to predict what these ever-lottery teams will do but there are some really bad fits factoring in players who appear to be a part of a current core (Collins, Rui, Markkanen and maybe Washington). I agree that Obi is a heavy favorite to be in the top ten -- but it's conceivable that he'll drop down, especially because there's not an obvious landing spot that he won't get past. By contrast, an equal-ish talent like Killian Hayes is probably less likely to drop out considering about half those teams need point guards.

    Plus, mocks have slowly lowered Obi in the last month or so. It's not too uncommon to find him going ~8th now: https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-mock...an-obi-toppin/ . Add in that Obi has some characteristics that have typically led to players dropping (old, smaller college, not a known prospect coming out of high school) and I think there's a possibility that he'll slip.
    True, but I don't know how entrenched any of them actually are. There's been conflicting reports about whether the Hawks will want to pay Collins (weird), Markkanen it seems they'll give one last chance under a new regime and Hachimura and Washington aren't particularly established and the latter in particular has no chance of becoming a star.

    Toppin is the type who should at least be an easy sell to casuals. He's athletic and he should pile up certain counting stats (namely ppg). Whether he'll actually impact winning is another story, but those types (especially the ones who can or project to shoot 3s) always hold appeal to old school types in non glamor markets.

  12. #62
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    I think Obi has just as good a chance to be available as Williams has to be off the board (I'm looking at Phoenix).
    Yeah, pretty much agree. Williams should be available at 11 but it's possible he could go 8-10. Obi should be off the board but I think the Spurs are actually his soft landing spot.

    It's a totally different situation than someone like Haliburton. In general, Obi looks like he'll go before Haliburton but Haliburton has multiple teams that will catch him before he'd fall to the Spurs. Haliburton's soft landing spot is probably the Suns at 10, unfortunately.

  13. #63
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    I'd say it's more than the drafts have calmed. Back when I was first hyping him, he was in the back half of the top-10. You've listed factors for why he might fall, and you can add to it at his position and body type are huge bust candidates. There's an ocean of athletic 6-9ish forwards that get hyped up as big and become at best JAGs in the NBA. Derrick Williams, Thomas Robinson, Anthony Bennett, Jabari Parker, Marqueese Chriss ... all the way through to Bagley and Hachimura. Almost every draft has a guy like that. And while it's not fair to judge a player for what guys who looked like him did, many of the teams ahead of the Spurs have been burned by taking at least one of this archetype recently. A lot of clubs could talk themselves into passing on Toppin just as a lot of them talked themselves into passing on Clarke. Maybe they'll even be right to do so.
    Agreed that Obi's bust potential deserves more focus. He's definitely someone who could flame out. If you look at the history of players his age who have been drafted in the lottery, just about all of them have disappointed in the last 10-15 years. I think Buddy Hield is the only recent example of an old player drafted in the lottery who lived up to his billing.

    Poku is obviously a more likely bust but compare Obi to Williams and I'm not sure who has a higher chance of being a bust. It might be Obi because it's conceivable that he's such a bust that he's not even in the league in five years, while Williams has the body and the instincts that will make him somewhat useful even if he skills don't develop.

  14. #64
    Believe.
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    The hit rate of a 22 year old guy at the lottery is not good. I can see him dropping not because of fit but because of age and teams might prefer projects ( poku, williams ) or nba ready wings ( saddiq, nesmith ).

    From bleacher:

    Before the Minnesota Timberwolves took Cameron Johnson in 2019—who looks like he'll be a useful rotation piece but maybe a questionable choice over Tyler Herro and PJ Washington—the previous lottery picks since 2004 drafted at 22 or older included Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Taurean Prince, Denzel Valentine, Frank Kaminsky, Doug McDermott, Kelly Olynyk, Jimmer Fredette, Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh, Hasheem Thabeet, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandon Rush, Joakim Noah, Acie Law, Al Thornton, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, JJ Re , Thabo Sefolosha, Channing Frye, Fran Vazquez, Babby Araujo and Luke Jackson.

  15. #65
    Spurs Sage Russ's Avatar
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    As far as who falls to 11, I don't think any of the guys I like (e.g., Toppin) will fall.

    Tier One

    1. Wiseman
    2. Okongwu
    3. Avdija

    Tier Two

    4. Toppin
    5. Hayes

    Add in Edwards and Ball and I doubt any of those 7 will fall past 9. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they all go 1-7. Halliburton and Okoro seem the most likely to bust into the top 7.

    I'm hoping the Spurs trade up 1-3 spots to get one of those 7 because there's a falloff after . . .

  16. #66
    Believe. JuneJive's Avatar
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    How can he be such a lousy defender?

    He's an athlete that uses it pretty well on offense, yet he's a sieve on defense.

    He's an excellent passer with a good feel for the game yet he can't use that bbiq on defense.

  17. #67
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    The hit rate of a 22 year old guy at the lottery is not good. I can see him dropping not because of fit but because of age and teams might prefer projects ( poku, williams ) or nba ready wings ( saddiq, nesmith ).

    From bleacher:

    Before the Minnesota Timberwolves took Cameron Johnson in 2019—who looks like he'll be a useful rotation piece but maybe a questionable choice over Tyler Herro and PJ Washington—the previous lottery picks since 2004 drafted at 22 or older included Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Taurean Prince, Denzel Valentine, Frank Kaminsky, Doug McDermott, Kelly Olynyk, Jimmer Fredette, Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh, Hasheem Thabeet, Tyler Hansbrough, Brandon Rush, Joakim Noah, Acie Law, Al Thornton, Shelden Williams, Randy Foye, JJ Re , Thabo Sefolosha, Channing Frye, Fran Vazquez, Babby Araujo and Luke Jackson.

    Good find, thanks. Yeah, that's what I was talking about. Sixteen years of drafts and the older picks are basically all disappointing other than Hield, Noah and (after a slow start) Re . The rest of that lists is a who's who of busts.

  18. #68
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    I just hate his defensive floor.

  19. #69
    My Girl's a Hooper keithington1's Avatar
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    Imagine passing it to the Toppin at the ft line and asking for a bucket. #ripcity. He needs to be fed. Thats not what the Spurs are looking for imo. If he’s there trade back.

  20. #70
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    How can he be such a lousy defender?

    He's an athlete that uses it pretty well on offense, yet he's a sieve on defense.

    He's an excellent passer with a good feel for the game yet he can't use that bbiq on defense.
    Well we have one in DDR, sometimes its about the effort.

  21. #71
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    I have some concerns about Obi, Looks like something between drew gooden and amare stoudemire. His D and the fact that he played against low compe ion are the main question marks for me.

    At 11 will be a good pick btw

  22. #72
    2 Doors Down BillMc's Avatar
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    Good find, thanks. Yeah, that's what I was talking about. Sixteen years of drafts and the older picks are basically all disappointing other than Hield, Noah and (after a slow start) Re . The rest of that lists is a who's who of busts.
    While he wasn't a lottery pick, wasn't our own D. White like 22 or so? I think that stigma could work in our favor.

  23. #73
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    While he wasn't a lottery pick, wasn't our own D. White like 22 or so? I think that stigma could work in our favor.
    Yes. White turned 23 like a week after the draft. His age definitely worked against him. What gives me hope with Toppin is that despite his age, he was still just a (RS) sop re. Like White, his experience playing high-level basketball is closer to guys years younger than him than typical 22- or 23-year-olds. A much better tracker of remaining potential is years of high-level coaching. I wouldn't hesitate to draft him at 11. Even if he's another Derrick Williams, I think Williams would've been a useful player had he been on a decent team rather than Minny, SAC and the Knicks.

  24. #74
    Remember Cherokee Parks The Truth #6's Avatar
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    It seems the big knock on him is his defense, which in part seems to be related to his stiff hips and heavy feet. I'm having to wonder how much those two physical issues will limit him on offense as well. His jumping is great, obviously. But there are different types of athleticism, and having stiff hips and heavy feet seems like a challenge for him moving forward, such as will he ever be able to have a strong post game in the NBA. Hard to say. I'm still getting familiar with his game, and I would like to see combine numbers to get a better sense of his overall physical traits. In the end, his ability to shoot the 3 will probably define his success in the NBA. Don't get me wrong, if he falls to 11, then this is a great opportunity. But there is bust potential with him. If he can't close games because of his poor defense, then what is his ceiling. This is a weird draft. Question marks on everyone.

  25. #75
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    Good find, thanks. Yeah, that's what I was talking about. Sixteen years of drafts and the older picks are basically all disappointing other than Hield, Noah and (after a slow start) Re . The rest of that lists is a who's who of busts.

    Yeah, I don't know. A few of those guys aren't exactly huge disappointments, considering they went outside of the Top 10. Someone like Kriss Dunn wouldn't be a huge disappointment if he had been drafted around 13. And most of them were just inept picks by clueless FO's. The problem wasn't their age - it was just really stupid management. Look at Epke Udoh getting picked at #6 FFS - but then notice that it was Golden State, back when they were totally mismanaged. That list leaves off Luke Jackson who went somewhere around 9-10... but that was Cleveland who didn't do much of anything right, other than have LeBron fall into their laps. Araujo was the result of that belief you talked about that any 7-footer who could walk and chew gum could be an NBA player - but it was also the perennial doormat Toronto that picked him.

    I think Brandon Roy was 22 when he was drafted (if not, he was within a month or so). Caron Butler was 22, and I don't think he was a big disappointment. I'm pretty sure Danny Granger was 22 when he was drafted, even though he isn't on the list either (sorry, Granger fell just out of the lottery. ZWJ). David Lee was a 4 year college guy, so I'm pretty sure he was 22. Jameer Nelson was old when he was drafted. David West, Josh Howard - I'm sure there are more. The problem isn't the age. It's that when you have a solid lottery pick, you really want a guy who stood out so much in college that he just had to leave early, because the expectation is that there are stars available in the first 6-7 picks. After that, it's the same choice the Spurs are facing - swing for the "upside" fence and try to back-door a future star, or pick a guy who's likely to be in the league for 8+ years, and who might become a second-tier star through grit and effort. I know West was gassed by the time he got here, but if you told me that the Spurs could draft a young David West at 11, I'd jump on it, even though West was almost 23 when he was drafted.

    The biggest red flag on Toppin, IMO, is that he doesn't defend or rebound for , and he likes to play above the rim. To me that says he's more interested in highlight reels than a winning team. But if Golden State was picking 11 instead of 2, I guarantee you they would scoop him up. There's nothing Kevon Looney can do that Toppin can't already do much better. Back in the day, I would be confident that the Spurs could get him to defend, but now I'm not so sure.


    Edit: Whoever made that list above cherry-picked to make a point - just because of Roy, of no one else. By the time you get out of the Top 10 (Top 7, really), you can't afford to overlook 22 year-olds who are obviously NBA ready.
    Last edited by ZeusWillJudge; 09-18-2020 at 10:44 AM.

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