Obi Toppin - 2020 NBA Draft Prospect

[Chinook]

This is where we disagree. Sorry, DeRozan is not even close to being a top 30 player of the last decade in my eyes. DeRozan wasn't even top 50 in RPM for SFs this season, and was 288th overall in the league. How is it every other legit star-- LeBron, Giannis, Jokic, Leonard, Lowry, Doncic, Curry, Siakam, Butler, Tatum, etc., etc.-- managed to be near the top of this statistical category, and almost without exception leads his individual team in it, while DeRozan tests year after year (and moreso in the playoffs) like an average player at best, and at worst a liability?

I mean, Siakam isn't a legit star? RPM's not a good stat for determining who the stars are. Some do well; others don't. Calling the who do "legit" doesn't change that.

You claimed before that you weren't making the Robert Covington argument, but you're really getting into Covington territory.

[R. DeMurre]

RPM's not a good stat for determining who the stars are. Some do well; others don't. Calling the who do "legit" doesn't change that.

Every single guy who finished in the top 12 for MVP voting this year finished in the top 35 for RPM. Again, DeRozan was 288th. DeRozan wasn't a top 30 player in the NBA this season, never mind including all the other seasons of the decade. And, yes, there is occasionally an outlier in the ranks of RPM, but the vast majority of the time the top players in RPM align strongly with the top MVP candidates. It's a much greater predictor of success and effectiveness than big empty stats or All Star fan votes.

[TD 21]

I wouldn't lump Griffin in with DeRozan. He was a top 10 player for a while and when relatively healthy has comfortably been a top 15-20 one for a decade.

Siakam's had one of the strangest careers to this point, but the jury is still out on whether he's a legit star.

I could see both sides of this one, but in a vacuum I'm not sure any of this should matter in Toppin's case and I say that as someone who suspects he'll be more like Randle (empty calories) than a legit star. He wouldn't inherently cap their ceiling in the way acquiring a prime DeRozan does.

[Chinook]

Every single guy who finished in the top 12 for MVP voting this year finished in the top 35 for RPM. Again, DeRozan was 288th. DeRozan wasn't a top 30 player in the NBA this season, never mind including all the other seasons of the decade. And, yes, there is occasionally an outlier in the ranks of RPM, but the vast majority of the time the top players in RPM align strongly with the top MVP candidates. It's a much greater predictor of success and effectiveness than big empty stats or All Star fan votes.

Part of being a top player for a decade is that other guys will rise and fall during that time. Like even if Siakam is better than DeRozan -- and that's not true -- he still isn't ahead of DeRozan for the last decade because he only had two years of even seemingly star-level play in that time. RPM is not a stat to rank players based on how "good" they are. It's explicitly not supposed to be used that way. You're not supposed to look at it and go "Well Danny Green had a higher RPM than DeRozan -- so I'd rather have Green." You're supposed to look at it and say, "Green is better at being a role-player than DeRozan is at being a star." The stat doesn't account for role yet the way it has rankings makes people think it does.

That's why I keep bringing up Covington, because you're using that same logic that keeps overvaluing him. His impact stats keep getting him rated as this really valuable piece, worth lotto picks and such. And it ignores that any team bad enough to have those picks probably isn't at a point where Covington helps them. Dude's been a high-impact guy for six years and only made the playoffs twice, with one of those times being when he was traded to a playoff team and both of those times being when there was at least one player clearly better than him on the roster. That's not to say that he doesn't have more value than a draft bust. Like not every player in the league has nearly the career he's had so far. If you told me the Spurs could draft the next Covington or Green, I'd be all for that.

But in this scenario, you're locking in that there's also a guy who could be there with an All-NBA ceiling. In that case, I'd love to grab a second first to get that Covington/Green, but if I can't, then it's the star all day. And yes, blah blah, flawed. But you can always build around/trade away flawed stars, especially early in their careers. Even on that stupid max deal, Wiggins was the main piece desired in the Butler trade. Heck Zach Lavine was actually traded as that main piece, and he's basically as bad. Winning a le is not a linear thing. The Spurs were a soft contender for years before they drafted Duncan. Even with Duncan, the Spurs were just mild contenders before they found the Medium Three. The idea that you can suck until you get a franchise piece and then you keep that piece and ride it until an eventual le. It's never that straight-forward. In 1999 the Spurs had a veteran core that had been trying to make it as a contender before Duncan, sure 2003 was peak Tim doing it mostly on his own, but that was already after the point where he could've walked. Obviously James and O'Neal didn't stay with their teams.

The Toppin you suggested would clearly be the best young player on the team, and upgrading in that area has to be the top goal of the Spurs in this draft. The real Toppin, as has been mentioned before, may not be that guy. He has flaws and warning signs. Not drafting him in the real world is something that could be justified and vindicated. But the Spurs would be lucky to be a second-round-ceiling playoff team any time soon.

[DPG21920]

Toppin at 11 is a no brainer. Even if he’s a bust.

[R. DeMurre]

That's why I keep bringing up Covington, because you're using that same logic that keeps overvaluing him. His impact stats keep getting him rated as this really valuable piece, worth lotto picks and such. And it ignores that any team bad enough to have those picks probably isn't at a point where Covington helps them. Dude's been a high-impact guy for six years and only made the playoffs twice, with one of those times being when he was traded to a playoff team and both of those times being when there was at least one player clearly better than him on the roster. That's not to say that he doesn't have more value than a draft bust. Like not every player in the league has nearly the career he's had so far. If you told me the Spurs could draft the next Covington or Green, I'd be all for that.

Covington is your one choice as a supposed outlier to continue using in this debate. You've now mentioned him three times, while I've never brought him up. The guys I'm using as examples are the best players on winning teams, who also have the best advanced stats on those teams (in the RPM post)-- as opposed specifically to DeRozan-- or valuable role players whose advanced stats show a true value beyond raw numbers. You keep bringing up Covington, a guy who was featured on a team that went 10-72, and whose career ORtf/DRtg is 103/105, which rates as upside down from an advanced stats perspective, so not a hidden gem or under-the-radar guy at all. Covington's career BPM is +0.5, meaning he barely makes a difference. Last year in 22 games with Houston, his BPM was +0.1. He's had a few moments here and there where he looked good for a minute, but from an advanced stat perspective he's nothing special at all.

[objective]

heard an interesting comparison on a couple of draft-related podcasts

Toppin is basically Brandon Clarke if Clarke was a terrible defender instead of one of the best defenders in college for a decade

Older players who are scoring at the rim as great lob threats and who are stretching out to be passable three point shooters. Toppin is a little bigger, maybe +2.5-3.0 on the wingspan and 1 inch taller.

And yet Clarke and the idea of him going even in the end of the lottery would have been unthinkable. He showed he was capable of being a good role player and drafted too low.

But Toppin is a horrible defender and people go crazy over him.

I'm out on Obi.

[Chinook]

Huh? Clarke was rumored to go in the top 10. To think it would have been a shock for him to go in the mid teens is weird. And Toppin is nothing like Clarke offensively. Such a lazy comparison. And mind you I was huge on Clarke.

[mo7888]

Toppin at 11 is a no brainer. Even if he’s a bust.

Yup

[TD 21]

If the Hornets stay put at 3 and reach on Okongwu (apparently a possibility), that would mean either Avdija or Toppin falls to 6.

At that point, would the Spurs/Hawks pull the trigger on DeRozan and 11 for 6?

Toppin doesn't seem an ideal Spurs type player on the surface, but neither were Aldridge/Gay/DeRozan, yet the need for offensive centerpiece types superseded that.

At this writing, the youth doesn't feature someone projected to become that and Aldridge/DeRozan have one foot out the door.

[Sugus]

If the Hornets stay put at 3 and reach on Okongwu (apparently a possibility), that would mean either Avdija or Toppin falls to 6.

At that point, would the Spurs/Hawks pull the trigger on DeRozan and 11 for 6?

Toppin doesn't seem an ideal Spurs type player on the surface, but neither were Aldridge/Gay/DeRozan, yet the need for offensive centerpiece types superseded that.

At this writing, the youth doesn't feature someone projected to become that and Aldridge/DeRozan have one foot out the door.

That's more like it. I'm becoming more and more convinced that the Spurs are not looking to trade up into the uncertain top-pick territory, but the more certain mid-top-lottery (is that a thing? I'm making it a thing) spots. I don't like Toppin AT ALL, so I'd much rather they go with Deni, but tbh any prospect at that stage that the Spurs deem good enough to trade up for would be good enough to me. Add to that the addition-by-substraction that getting rid of DeRozan would signify, and we're golden. But tbh, I'd hope the Spurs try to mangle some deal where they add someone like Patty or Dejounte to the deal instead of #11, just because this draft seems perfect to have multiple FRPs on. But I'd be fine with losing 11 if that's what it takes.

Can't wait for draft night, tbh. I've never been more involved with a draft before. I can see the Spurs trading up, staying put, or even trading down, all with good options given each scenario... Must be stressful to work in the FO.

[R. DeMurre]

The closer I look at it, the more I think there's a non-0% chance Obi falls to the Spurs. I wouldn't classify it as a good chance but it's difficult to find a landing spot for him in the top ten.

Minnesota: Would they really put a non-defensive big next to KAT? That'd be dumb.

Golden State: They have Draymond and Obi wouldn't be too helpful as a small ball center.

Charlotte: MJ likes going with the most well-known college player but, then again, they just drafted PJ Washington in the lottery last year and he was a started all year. You can't start Washington and Obi together.

Cleveland: Their guards are so bad at defense that picking Obi would defensive suicide. Plus, with Love and Drummond, things would get awkward pretty quickly.

Chicago: They already have an offensive, no-defense big in Markkanen.

Atlanta: Obi next to John Collins would be the worst defensive big pairing in the league.

Detroit: They have Blake Griffin and, more importantly, they desperately need guards.

Knicks: They have a ton of power forward who are light on defense. Would they draft another one? It's possible but they too need guards.

Washington: Rui looks like he's their power forward of the future. Add in Bertans, who they are expected to re-sign, and I don't see the fit here.

Phoenix: They have Saric and Cam Johnson. Ayton doesn't have good defensive instincts so pairing him with Obi would be dangerous.

The best fits for Obi are behind the Spurs: Portland, Boston, New Orleans, Orlando, etc.

The most likely team to pick Obi before the Spurs I guess would be the Cavs. He's an in-state product and it's not like they know what they're doing anyways. The Knicks are another team that would just draft him for the name.

Have to agree with most of these. I'll leave out Golden State because they're a unique case, but when was the last time a top draft pick looked like a dumb, suicidal, or dangerous pick for nine of the worst teams in the league? Are Toppin's shortcomings so egregious that he negates the whole Best Player Available concept?

[Chinook]

The only short-comings than can negate that are off-the-court red flags. If you think a guy is talented but his health or behavior might prevent him from playing, then you pass. But if you're a team that lacks young talent, you don't pass on BPA with excuses about flaws. If a guy is still BPA even after accounting for flaws, you take him and hope you can coach him up or scheme around the flaws. You're almost by definition saying that everyone else has flaws that make them worse anyway. You can argue Toppin isn't BPA (though I think you'd lose that case after the top three), but if you're accepting he's BPA as a given an argument, not taking him doesn't make sense.

And in case someone's going to go this route: BPA is not about high floors. Potential is part of the BPA evaluation. So I'm not saying you have to take the guy who's the current best player over everyone else. I'm saying you unless you think the guy has injuries or other off-court stuff, you take the guy you think will be the best player in the draft every time.

, look at how many people are salivating over Michael Porter Jr, and the dude had and continues to have both medical and behavioral red flags. Porter's also a terrible defender and was even worse on that end in college than Toppin is. Also, also, Toppin is only four months older than Porter. You don't want to take on Wiggins or trade a bunch of picks to get Toppin? Fine. You just think some other guy is a better BPA candidate or are really shook by how much the position busts? Fine. But it's clear Toppin has a very good resume and profile that should make him a compe ive early lottery candidate, and if he fell to the Spurs, there is way more reason to be excited/hopeful than there is to be frightened.

[mo7888]

The only short-comings than can negate that are off-the-court red flags. If you think a guy is talented but his health or behavior might prevent him from playing, then you pass. But if you're a team that lacks young talent, you don't pass on BPA with excuses about flaws. If a guy is still BPA even after accounting for flaws, you take him and hope you can coach him up or scheme around the flaws. You're almost by definition saying that everyone else has flaws that make them worse anyway. You can argue Toppin isn't BPA (though I think you'd lose that case after the top three), but if you're accepting he's BPA as a given an argument, not taking him doesn't make sense.

And in case someone's going to go this route: BPA is not about high floors. Potential is part of the BPA evaluation. So I'm not saying you have to take the guy who's the current best player over everyone else. I'm saying you unless you think the guy has injuries or other off-court stuff, you take the guy you think will be the best player in the draft every time.

, look at how many people are salivating over Michael Porter Jr, and the dude had and continues to have both medical and behavioral red flags. Porter's also a terrible defender and was even worse on that end in college than Toppin is. Also, also, Toppin is only four months older than Porter. You don't want to take on Wiggins or trade a bunch of picks to get Toppin? Fine. You just think some other guy is a better BPA candidate or are really shook by how much the position busts? Fine. But it's clear Toppin has a very good resume and profile that should make him a compe ive early lottery candidate, and if he fell to the Spurs, there is way more reason to be excited/hopeful than there is to be frightened.

I don't have him quite as high as you do but he's definitely top 8 (probably top 6) to me. It's an absolute no-brainer to take him at 11 if he's on the board.

[R. DeMurre]

The only short-comings than can negate that are off-the-court red flags. If you think a guy is talented but his health or behavior might prevent him from playing, then you pass. But if you're a team that lacks young talent, you don't pass on BPA with excuses about flaws. If a guy is still BPA even after accounting for flaws, you take him and hope you can coach him up or scheme around the flaws. You're almost by definition saying that everyone else has flaws that make them worse anyway. You can argue Toppin isn't BPA (though I think you'd lose that case after the top three), but if you're accepting he's BPA as a given an argument, not taking him doesn't make sense.

And in case someone's going to go this route: BPA is not about high floors. Potential is part of the BPA evaluation. So I'm not saying you have to take the guy who's the current best player over everyone else. I'm saying you unless you think the guy has injuries or other off-court stuff, you take the guy you think will be the best player in the draft every time.

, look at how many people are salivating over Michael Porter Jr, and the dude had and continues to have both medical and behavioral red flags. Porter's also a terrible defender and was even worse on that end in college than Toppin is. Also, also, Toppin is only four months older than Porter. You don't want to take on Wiggins or trade a bunch of picks to get Toppin? Fine. You just think some other guy is a better BPA candidate or are really shook by how much the position busts? Fine. But it's clear Toppin has a very good resume and profile that should make him a compe ive early lottery candidate, and if he fell to the Spurs, there is way more reason to be excited/hopeful than there is to be frightened.

I was just entertained by Timvp's dramatic language. I'm no fan of all offense no defense bigs, but suicidal still stands out as a pretty passionate mock draft description.

[The Truth #6]

The only short-comings than can negate that are off-the-court red flags. If you think a guy is talented but his health or behavior might prevent him from playing, then you pass. But if you're a team that lacks young talent, you don't pass on BPA with excuses about flaws. If a guy is still BPA even after accounting for flaws, you take him and hope you can coach him up or scheme around the flaws. You're almost by definition saying that everyone else has flaws that make them worse anyway. You can argue Toppin isn't BPA (though I think you'd lose that case after the top three), but if you're accepting he's BPA as a given an argument, not taking him doesn't make sense.

And in case someone's going to go this route: BPA is not about high floors. Potential is part of the BPA evaluation. So I'm not saying you have to take the guy who's the current best player over everyone else. I'm saying you unless you think the guy has injuries or other off-court stuff, you take the guy you think will be the best player in the draft every time.

, look at how many people are salivating over Michael Porter Jr, and the dude had and continues to have both medical and behavioral red flags. Porter's also a terrible defender and was even worse on that end in college than Toppin is. Also, also, Toppin is only four months older than Porter. You don't want to take on Wiggins or trade a bunch of picks to get Toppin? Fine. You just think some other guy is a better BPA candidate or are really shook by how much the position busts? Fine. But it's clear Toppin has a very good resume and profile that should make him a compe ive early lottery candidate, and if he fell to the Spurs, there is way more reason to be excited/hopeful than there is to be frightened.

You made me curious about how people see their list of bpa. I think Toppin, as others said, is a no brainer at 11. But would you take him over Deni? Killian? Okoru?

[ZeusWillJudge]

Toppin at 11 is a no brainer. Even if he’s a bust.

Even if he turns out to be a bust. You only have the knowledge available at draft time, and unless the scouts have some knowledge that the rest of us don't, he would def be a no-brainer at 11.

I mean, Siakam isn't a legit star? RPM's not a good stat for determining who the stars are. Some do well; others don't. Calling the who do "legit" doesn't change that.

You claimed before that you weren't making the Robert Covington argument, but you're really getting into Covington territory.

RPM is a terrible predictive tool. It has its limits when comparing a single player on different teams over time. (Just because of team/coaching dynamics.) But comparing different players on different teams, and even in different seasons? It's one tool in an entire tool box. People love to point at all the times it's dead-on, and they ignore the times it's totally silly. Like all other metrics, you really have to understand what it does and doesn't say to get any real value out of it.

[ZeusWillJudge]

You made me curious about how people see their list of bpa. I think Toppin, as others said, is a no brainer at 11. But would you take him over Deni? Killian? Okoru?

The single biggest drawback to drafting Toppin would be the fact that he would be playing under Pop. People seem to ignore the fact that talent/skill set is only one part of the picture. How a player is used is always a big factor. We've all seen players leave one team and flourish with another. Maybe the player got a little better in a single offseason - but mostly it's about fit in the roster and the coaches system. Put Toppin on a D'Antoni team and he would probably be a ROY candidate - at least as long as Hardon let him touch the ball once in a while.

People forget that Wiggins puts up a load of points. Put Toppin and Wiggins together on a D'Antoni team and they would put up just a double load of points... at least up till playoff time.

[R. DeMurre]

[The Truth #6]

The single biggest drawback to drafting Toppin would be the fact that he would be playing under Pop. People seem to ignore the fact that talent/skill set is only one part of the picture. How a player is used is always a big factor. We've all seen players leave one team and flourish with another. Maybe the player got a little better in a single offseason - but mostly it's about fit in the roster and the coaches system. Put Toppin on a D'Antoni team and he would probably be a ROY candidate - at least as long as Hardon let him touch the ball once in a while.

People forget that Wiggins puts up a load of points. Put Toppin and Wiggins together on a D'Antoni team and they would put up just a double load of points... at least up till playoff time.

Interesting points. Any other players you think are a bad fit? Personally, I’m curious about Jaden McDaniels in the second round if he’s still available, but the red flags around his personality seem like an obvious bad fit with Pop.

Now, if Pop is leaving in a year and Becky takes over, that could be good (re:Toppin) in the long term.

[TD 21]

That's more like it. I'm becoming more and more convinced that the Spurs are not looking to trade up into the uncertain top-pick territory, but the more certain mid-top-lottery (is that a thing? I'm making it a thing) spots. I don't like Toppin AT ALL, so I'd much rather they go with Deni, but tbh any prospect at that stage that the Spurs deem good enough to trade up for would be good enough to me. Add to that the addition-by-substraction that getting rid of DeRozan would signify, and we're golden. But tbh, I'd hope the Spurs try to mangle some deal where they add someone like Patty or Dejounte to the deal instead of #11, just because this draft seems perfect to have multiple FRPs on. But I'd be fine with losing 11 if that's what it takes.

Can't wait for draft night, tbh. I've never been more involved with a draft before. I can see the Spurs trading up, staying put, or even trading down, all with good options given each scenario... Must be stressful to work in the FO.

Yeah, it could obviously be applicable to Avdija too (depending on which of Toppin/him the Cavaliers pass on at 5), who'd probably be the Spurs' preference. It's even possible that the Hawks would go with Haliburton at 6 and one of them would fall to the Pistons at 7, in which case the same DeRozan and 11 offer would apply.

This is where the Spurs need to hope DeRozan's representation hasn't nailed down either the Hawks/Pistons as a destination (both of whom have the cap space to sign him outright) though and opts in, thereby forcing either's hand in a trade if they're interested enough.

[PhantomDashCam]

Make of this what you will. Hadn't heard about this though...

https://cavaliersnation.com/2020/11/...o-5-2-players/

More people think Toppin is a pretty legit top-5 talent due to his offensive skill, but I’ve been told to keep an eye on his medicals from the combine. (Teams are still parsing through this info.)”

[Thomas82]

The single biggest drawback to drafting Toppin would be the fact that he would be playing under Pop. People seem to ignore the fact that talent/skill set is only one part of the picture. How a player is used is always a big factor. We've all seen players leave one team and flourish with another. Maybe the player got a little better in a single offseason - but mostly it's about fit in the roster and the coaches system. Put Toppin on a D'Antoni team and he would probably be a ROY candidate - at least as long as Hardon let him touch the ball once in a while.

People forget that Wiggins puts up a load of points. Put Toppin and Wiggins together on a D'Antoni team and they would put up just a double load of points... at least up till playoff time.

All good points!!

[R. DeMurre]

Mocking RPM, then salivating over a Wiggins/Toppin pairing. That's rich. Looks like your tool box is a tad rusty.

[Dejounte]

No mention of the Spurs.