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  1. #76
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    Yes. White turned 23 like a week after the draft. His age definitely worked against him. What gives me hope with Toppin is that despite his age, he was still just a (RS) sop re. Like White, his experience playing high-level basketball is closer to guys years younger than him than typical 22- or 23-year-olds. A much better tracker of remaining potential is years of high-level coaching. I wouldn't hesitate to draft him at 11. Even if he's another Derrick Williams, I think Williams would've been a useful player had he been on a decent team rather than Minny, SAC and the Knicks.

    Dead on with that.

    Of course, Toppin played against a ridiculously easy strength of schedule. Much lower than White's, for instance. I'm still not sold on what he does against NBA defenders, but he's got a lot of the signs of a late bloomer. The Spurs will have done the homework to know if he's teachable. If they take him, it will be a good pick. If they pass (assuming he gets to them) they'll have good reason.

  2. #77
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    Yeah, I don't know. A few of those guys aren't exactly huge disappointments, considering they went outside of the Top 10. Someone like Kriss Dunn wouldn't be a huge disappointment if he had been drafted around 13. And most of them were just inept picks by clueless FO's. The problem wasn't their age - it was just really stupid management. Look at Epke Udoh getting picked at #6 FFS - but then notice that it was Golden State, back when they were totally mismanaged. That list leaves off Luke Jackson who went somewhere around 9-10... but that was Cleveland who didn't do much of anything right, other than have LeBron fall into their laps. Araujo was the result of that belief you talked about that any 7-footer who could walk and chew gum could be an NBA player - but it was also the perennial doormat Toronto that picked him.

    I think Brandon Roy was 22 when he was drafted (if not, he was within a month or so). Caron Butler was 22, and I don't think he was a big disappointment. I'm pretty sure Danny Granger was 22 when he was drafted, even though he isn't on the list either (sorry, Granger fell just out of the lottery. ZWJ). David Lee was a 4 year college guy, so I'm pretty sure he was 22. Jameer Nelson was old when he was drafted. David West, Josh Howard - I'm sure there are more. The problem isn't the age. It's that when you have a solid lottery pick, you really want a guy who stood out so much in college that he just had to leave early, because the expectation is that there are stars available in the first 6-7 picks. After that, it's the same choice the Spurs are facing - swing for the "upside" fence and try to back-door a future star, or pick a guy who's likely to be in the league for 8+ years, and who might become a second-tier star through grit and effort. I know West was gassed by the time he got here, but if you told me that the Spurs could draft a young David West at 11, I'd jump on it, even though West was almost 23 when he was drafted.

    The biggest red flag on Toppin, IMO, is that he doesn't defend or rebound for , and he likes to play above the rim. To me that says he's more interested in highlight reels than a winning team. But if Golden State was picking 11 instead of 2, I guarantee you they would scoop him up. There's nothing Kevon Looney can do that Toppin can't already do much better. Back in the day, I would be confident that the Spurs could get him to defend, but now I'm not so sure.


    Edit: Whoever made that list above cherry-picked to make a point - just because of Roy, of no one else. By the time you get out of the Top 10 (Top 7, really), you can't afford to overlook 22 year-olds who are obviously NBA ready.
    Sure, the parameters themselves (lottery, since 2004, 22 or older) were cherry-picked -- but, tbf, looks like Roy was 21, Butler was before 2004, and Granger, Nelson, West and Howard weren't in the lottery. It shouldn't be a hard and fast rule to not draft 22-year-olds in the lottery but a lot of the time it doesn't look like a great move in retrospect. Even the 2019 draft, the Suns going with old Cam Johnson for shooting when young shooter Tyler Herro was available already looks like a colossal mistake.

    I still believe in Obi for the Spurs because he was somewhat a late bloomer who only recently grew to be as big as he is -- so I don't think he's the classic case of a four-year player who was just too mature and too experienced for anyone to deal with. I'd say Obi is more like Derrick White in that he had a late growth spurt and it took him longer to develop -- and he's probably still developing, in fact.

    Two players I'd love in the second round, Desmond Bane and Grant Riller, are more your classic four-year players who dominated as a senior ... with a substantial part of their domination likely due to their maturity level.

  3. #78
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Bumping this guy with Okoro down to my tier 2 lol...

    Deni and Halliburton are my only tier 1 players (right now).

  4. #79
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    Sure, the parameters themselves (lottery, since 2004, 22 or older) were cherry-picked -- but, tbf, looks like Roy was 21, Butler was before 2004, and Granger, Nelson, West and Howard weren't in the lottery. It shouldn't be a hard and fast rule to not draft 22-year-olds in the lottery but a lot of the time it doesn't look like a great move in retrospect. Even the 2019 draft, the Suns going with old Cam Johnson for shooting when young shooter Tyler Herro was available already looks like a colossal mistake.

    I still believe in Obi for the Spurs because he was somewhat a late bloomer who only recently grew to be as big as he is -- so I don't think he's the classic case of a four-year player who was just too mature and too experienced for anyone to deal with. I'd say Obi is more like Derrick White in that he had a late growth spurt and it took him longer to develop -- and he's probably still developing, in fact.

    Two players I'd love in the second round, Desmond Bane and Grant Riller, are more your classic four-year players who dominated as a senior ... with a substantial part of their domination likely due to their maturity level.

    Meh. I think Roy really was a few weeks shy of 22. Not the point I was trying to make. All I was saying is that in the high lottery, teams are looking for something different. That's where you hope to find the clear needle-movers. So, yeah, if you're looking for that out of a guy who wasn't good enough to declare early, you've got a good chance of being disappointed. A lot of guys who would be disappointing at 5 would be a lot more understandable at 20. Derrick White was an incredible pickup at 29, but at say 3 or 4 he would just be tolerable.

    Once you move into the middle part of the draft, a lot of those solid-vet-type players are just what you should be looking for. The Spurs are right on the cusp at 11, but this draft isn't top-loaded like the year Roy was drafted, so it's less likely that a unicorn gets pushed down to the Spurs pick. A few of those overachieve, which is why I listed those guys who went out of the lottery.

  5. #80
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    Two players I'd love in the second round, Desmond Bane and Grant Riller, are more your classic four-year players who dominated as a senior ... with a substantial part of their domination likely due to their maturity level.

    This draft has a bunch of guys that I covet in the late first and early second. Guys you probably wouldn't take at 11, but may not make it to 41. Riller and Bane are both on my list of looming regrets.

    It's not a draft to get a generational player, but if you could pick five from 16-20 I think you would have a pretty strong chance at having 3 solid supporting NBA players in a couple of years, and a reasonable shot at striking gold with one of those.

  6. #81
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    Don't think I like the comparisons with White in the context of age and players

    I don't think it's a good comparison because White was a good defender in college. He had great block and steal numbers, and was pac-12 all defense

    Frankly, all White needed to succeed in the NBA was better conditioning and getting used to the increased speed and strength of the NBA and adjusting to professional life.

    His game is basically the same. Same lean on his jumper, though maybe toned down a little. Same pick and roll passing. If Draft Express hadn't removed their scouting videos you could check it out, it was all there.

    , there's a reason why halfway through his rookie year there were posters here declaring that he was already no worse than the fourth best guard on the roster, if not already the third best, and deserved minutes (that we all knew he would never get).

    Now Murray did make huge defensive strides, but he was younger and had been under a terrible college coach who couldn't even make the tourney with multiple first round picks. Toppin hasn't had that excuse.

  7. #82
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Don't think I like the comparisons with White in the context of age and players.
    I think you're taking the comparison in a way it's not intended. We're not talking about if they can get better. White was a more complete player for sure, just like Toppin is more explosive. We're talking about whether their college production was due to them being older. In that regard, I don't think it's true for either of them, because they were both "younger" than their age suggested, both in terms of experience and physical maturation.

    It's correct that all White needed was for his game to transfer over, because he could do everything. He just needed to learn the NBA and get out of his way. The key for Toppin isn't going to be whether he can learn to be a good defender. It's whether his offense can translate. If it does THEN you can worry about him being good at defense. If Obi is a guy who can score 20 a night but plays terrible defense, that's still useful on a team with good defensive personnel that can hide him.

  8. #83
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Do we have good defensive personnel? I don't think we'd be able to hide Toppin.

  9. #84
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Do we have good defensive personnel? I don't think we'd be able to hide Toppin.
    Yes, the Spurs have good defensive personnel. They could use another guy like Paul Reed at 41, but they have defenders at all three levels.

  10. #85
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    If the Spurs draft Toppin, suddenly re-signing Poeltl is a priority. He's actually the perfect big to put next to him. You need a mobile big next to Toppin and Poeltl's best attribute is his mobility. You also need a big who is bulky enough to deal with the bigger centers who would overwhelm Toppin -- and, again, Poeltl fits that bill.

    In a future where the bigs are Toppin and Poeltl, you give Poeltl the more difficult matchup and do your best to keep Toppin out of pick-and-roll situations. The goal would be allow Toppin to roam and be a shot-blocker. For as bad as he is on defense, I don't think Toppin could possibly be DeRozan bad. Get Toppin to concentrate on defending the rim and there's a chance he could be somewhere in the neighborhood of average.


  11. #86
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    If the Spurs draft Toppin, suddenly re-signing Poeltl is a priority. He's actually the perfect big to put next to him. You need a mobile big next to Toppin and Poeltl's best attribute is his mobility. You also need a big who is bulky enough to deal with the bigger centers who would overwhelm Toppin -- and, again, Poeltl fits that bill.

    In a future where the bigs are Toppin and Poeltl, you give Poeltl the more difficult matchup and do your best to keep Toppin out of pick-and-roll situations. The goal would be allow Toppin to roam and be a shot-blocker. For as bad as he is on defense, I don't think Toppin could possibly be DeRozan bad. Get Toppin to concentrate on defending the rim and there's a chance he could be somewhere in the neighborhood of average.

    Yeah, I'm going to be extremely interested to see Obi's measurements. His wing-span has been listed anywhere from 6-11 to 7-3. If it's toward that upper end, Toppin might be able to be a Murray-esque free safety on defense. Let him jump passing lanes, get out if he's about the FTLE on rebounds, come off the weakside for blocks. Also let him go if he gets a rebound. You aren't going to make Toppin into some three-and-D guy, and you shouldn't want to. He'd be the first legit guy where you start thinking about how players fit around him, not how he fits with them.

    I agree about Poeltl, and I've said for a while that I'd want the Spurs to prioritize getting out of the off-season with White, Walker, Johnson, Toppin and Poeltl on the roster. That unit has good potential on both ends, and I think it should be possible to get there AND have LMA, DMDR, Gay, Mills and Samanic still on the roster. Those latter five guys aren't nearly as important for me, but I think if that all occurs, the Spurs are a playoff team in terms of talent.

  12. #87
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    I know the hope is there for him to improve on defense, and several internet scout guys think he can become average or at least neutral, but watching some of the weakness videos is disgusting. It's like Forbes and Joffrey got combined in a transporter accident.

    And because he was largely going against non-majors I don't think he has the excuse of saving himself for offense like so many players get for their bad defense. Sure, he can get blocks against Omaha, Rhode Island, and schools I didn't know existed (Houston-Baptist???), but if he's getting smoked like this then he might be worse than DeRozan at PF.





    Jalen Smith has his issues on the P&R and with strength but he looks lightyears better on defense. I like his shot form better too. And if he was dumping his ass on Houston-Baptist and Omaha and Northeast-South-Springfield-Tech-Catholic-State like Toppin I think he'd be scoring more and getting the awards recognition. Toppin is a better passer, and flashier dunker.

    Even Precious Achiuwa's clips of bad defense don't come as close to making me swear like Toppin.

    BUT in almost every draft, at least in the first round, I usually look for the better defenders. I'm guilty of that, maybe his offense blows that out of the water.

  13. #88
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Forbes level defense?

  14. #89
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    I agree about Poeltl, and I've said for a while that I'd want the Spurs to prioritize getting out of the off-season with White, Walker, Johnson, Toppin and Poeltl on the roster. That unit has good potential on both ends, and I think it should be possible to get there AND have LMA, DMDR, Gay, Mills and Samanic still on the roster. Those latter five guys aren't nearly as important for me, but I think if that all occurs, the Spurs are a playoff team in terms of talent.
    I notice you don't have Murray on the list. Is that because you think Toppin is good enough that the Spurs should try to trade Murray + #11 for a high enough pick to be assured of getting Toppin?

  15. #90
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    I notice you don't have Murray on the list. Is that because you think Toppin is good enough that the Spurs should try to trade Murray + #11 for a high enough pick to be assured of getting Toppin?
    Yes, basically at least. I think he's 11th on the team in terms of who I want to have on the roster. I'm not against DJM being on the team or anything, especially if he's okay with coming off the bench, but he's definitely a guy I'd want to deal first if they can get value from it. Despite what some people say here, I think he still has really good value, especially as it relates to this draft. Wouldn't surprise me to see some lotto teams willing to trade their pick for DeJounte straight up. Dude might well have more value than White, even if I think it's pretty much settle that Derrick is the better player.

  16. #91
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Yes, basically at least. I think he's 11th on the team in terms of who I want to have on the roster. I'm not against DJM being on the team or anything, especially if he's okay with coming off the bench, but he's definitely a guy I'd want to deal first if they can get value from it. Despite what some people say here, I think he still has really good value, especially as it relates to this draft. Wouldn't surprise me to see some lotto teams willing to trade their pick for DeJounte straight up. Dude might well have more value than White, even if I think it's pretty much settle that Derrick is the better player.
    This is very much true. I've seen posts from fans of other teams being shocked that Spurs fans want to trade DJ. His value, with fans at least, is high from people outside of Spurs fandom.

  17. #92
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    Yes, basically at least. I think he's 11th on the team in terms of who I want to have on the roster. I'm not against DJM being on the team or anything, especially if he's okay with coming off the bench, but he's definitely a guy I'd want to deal first if they can get value from it. Despite what some people say here, I think he still has really good value, especially as it relates to this draft. Wouldn't surprise me to see some lotto teams willing to trade their pick for DeJounte straight up. Dude might well have more value than White, even if I think it's pretty much settle that Derrick is the better player.
    Murray to Detroit for #7 looks like a win-win to me. They have so many players on rookie contracts and so little salary committed that they could use a "veteran", especially one under team control for the next 4 years at a reasonable price. They also have enough cap space that salary matching is not required, and a trade exception would be quite useful to the Spurs. But I haven't looked at other teams.

  18. #93
    Believe. D-Robinson 50 fan's Avatar
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    Murray to Detroit for #7 looks like a win-win to me. They have so many players on rookie contracts and so little salary committed that they could use a "veteran", especially one under team control for the next 4 years at a reasonable price. They also have enough cap space that salary matching is not required, and a trade exception would be quite useful to the Spurs. But I haven't looked at other teams.

    That would be an awesome trade for the Spurs! Too bad it isn't going to happen.....

    We all can dream

  19. #94
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    I wonder if the Spurs could leverage their 2nd rounder to move up in the draft a few spots if they see someone they like. Heck, throw Mills and an S&T with Forbes in there to sweeten the pot.

  20. #95
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    Someone made a loose comparison on reddit that clicked for me.

    Derrick Williams.

    Williams was a big time player as a sop re, PAC-12 player of the year, and per 100 possessions was basically Obi Toppin. Except that besides all the highlight dunks, Williams shot 58%!!!! from 3.

    And he just wasn't a good NBA player. Great dunker though, he was in a dunk contest. But the shot wasn't real. And the other stuff wasn't real either. Here's a guy who was dropping 32 against Duke in the tourney, nailing threes, thunderous dunks off putbacks, fierce driving dunks off the dribble from the three point line, sharp passes out of double teams to buckets ... But it just didn't click at all. , I remember there being a lot of talk that Williams should go #1 that year.

    I get that vibe from Toppin. I don't believe in his shot, and of course don't believe in his defense. He'll be in a dunk contest jumping over a moped or a fleet of drones or some nonsense, and every year there will be a youtube video featuring his 10 best dunks of the year, and that's about what I expect for him. Averaging between 15-25 minutes, scoring from 8-12 points with some bad defense.

  21. #96
    Veteran R. DeMurre's Avatar
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    Someone made a loose comparison on reddit that clicked for me.

    Derrick Williams.

    Williams was a big time player as a sop re, PAC-12 player of the year, and per 100 possessions was basically Obi Toppin. Except that besides all the highlight dunks, Williams shot 58%!!!! from 3.

    And he just wasn't a good NBA player. Great dunker though, he was in a dunk contest. But the shot wasn't real. And the other stuff wasn't real either. Here's a guy who was dropping 32 against Duke in the tourney, nailing threes, thunderous dunks off putbacks, fierce driving dunks off the dribble from the three point line, sharp passes out of double teams to buckets ... But it just didn't click at all. , I remember there being a lot of talk that Williams should go #1 that year.

    I get that vibe from Toppin. I don't believe in his shot, and of course don't believe in his defense. He'll be in a dunk contest jumping over a moped or a fleet of drones or some nonsense, and every year there will be a youtube video featuring his 10 best dunks of the year, and that's about what I expect for him. Averaging between 15-25 minutes, scoring from 8-12 points with some bad defense.
    Same with Michael Beasley-- flashy, unstoppable in college... the complete absence of IQ on defense is a big red flag.

  22. #97
    Remember kobyz's Avatar
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    Someone made a loose comparison on reddit that clicked for me.

    Derrick Williams.

    Williams was a big time player as a sop re, PAC-12 player of the year, and per 100 possessions was basically Obi Toppin. Except that besides all the highlight dunks, Williams shot 58%!!!! from 3.

    And he just wasn't a good NBA player. Great dunker though, he was in a dunk contest. But the shot wasn't real. And the other stuff wasn't real either. Here's a guy who was dropping 32 against Duke in the tourney, nailing threes, thunderous dunks off putbacks, fierce driving dunks off the dribble from the three point line, sharp passes out of double teams to buckets ... But it just didn't click at all. , I remember there being a lot of talk that Williams should go #1 that year.

    I get that vibe from Toppin. I don't believe in his shot, and of course don't believe in his defense. He'll be in a dunk contest jumping over a moped or a fleet of drones or some nonsense, and every year there will be a youtube video featuring his 10 best dunks of the year, and that's about what I expect for him. Averaging between 15-25 minutes, scoring from 8-12 points with some bad defense.
    He has much better patience as a scorer than Williams, He's like a Rui Hachimora who's doing well as a rookie but more athletic version, like even a little Dominiq Wilkins in him, he's gonna translate as offensive player

  23. #98
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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  24. #99
    Veteran ginobilized's Avatar
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    Maybe I am missing something with Toppin, but, I do not get the interest in him. It's actually hard for me to visualize him on an NBA court and moving with the requisite speed and fluidity.
    I deeply hope that either I am wrong or that the Spurs look elsewhere.

  25. #100
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Maybe I am missing something with Toppin, but, I do not get the interest in him. It's actually hard for me to visualize him on an NBA court and moving with the requisite speed and fluidity.
    I deeply hope that either I am wrong or that the Spurs look elsewhere.
    It's the high scoring output and the insane dunking highlights that have reeled people in.

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