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so peaceful
on fire today
Hopefully we don't get to find out later on this was done by your run of the mill white supremacist terrorists...
There's only one door?
They definitely are. but it hasn't really translated to the polls yet with 70 days to go. Biden is actually increasing his lead in swing states.
Do you recall Killary's lead in Wisconsin the week leading up to election day?
Wouldn't put so much stock into the polls.
Not precisely.
What was her lead?
Derp is in business of constructing police buildings?
Who knew?
She had a 4 point lead head-to-head, within the margin of error. 6 point lead if you take into account the other two candidates as well.
Not sure why we shouldn't put much stock into the polls, tbh. Wisconsin was also fairly challenging for the Dems in 2012, IIRC.
Like 5 point avg, but some polls had her with a 10 point lead just as we are seeing with Joe right now.
_Finder still fixated with Hillary using the whatabout shtick and triggered as usual.
Let him come up with research NoNo on whatever cr*p coming out of his pie hole. Lazy-ass _Finder.
Blake's post below is a lot more specific tbh:
It was like 4.9 if you look it up. I rounded off.
How has Wisconsin typically gone prior to Trump in the POTUS category?
Still starving for attention. Pathetic_Finder still fixated with Hillary using the whatabout shtick and triggered as usual.
Let him come up with research NoNo on whatever cr*p coming out of his pie hole. Lazy-ass _Finder.
(Using FiveThirtyEight for this) her lead in WI shrank from 8 points to 5 points from Oct. 21 to Election Day. The polls were definitely off, but they were pretty accurate in terms of who had the momentum going into Election Day. Also worth noting that Shillary’s polling was still below 50% on Election Day (an Ipsos poll taken the week before the election had her winning 46% to 40%, which a large amount of undecideds). She was polling ahead by a plurality but not a majority, and the exit polling in 2016 showed that people who decided the 1-2 weeks before the election were lopsided in favor of Trump. That’s where she lost the election.
The most recent Wisconsin polls for Biden have him near or above 50%, they don’t show that he still needs to win over undecided voters the way Hillary did (and I don’t see any scenario where he does as badly with last minute undecided voters as she did). Compare that to the late August 2016 polling in Wisconsin. The highest rated pollsters had both candidates in the high 30s / low 40s, with 20% still undecided.
The unanswered question is whether pollsters have corrected their 2016 failure to account for Trumpsized rural voter turnout. In 2018 they corrected it to some extent but were still off in states like Florida and Ohio that have abnormal rural white voter enthusiasm for Trump. If they haven’t corrected their polling methods then I agree the polls for the key states are going to be off. If they have corrected their methods then the polls are a pretty good indicator imo.
Real clear politics has it even higher than my initial source:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5659.html
How confident are you in the polling this time around?
I don't know.
I think the polls are accurate, but I also think it's way too early and things can change (which is why 538 is going Trump a 27% chance even though the polls make it seem like he's going to lose in a landslide).
Biden didn't get much of a convention bump, but voter enthusiasm/approval rating increased for those who were already voting for him, which is important in the sense he isn't relying as much on "lesser of two evils" voters. I want to see what the polling impact is after Trump's RNC. If the RNC doesn't move the polls much either, I interpret that to mean the polls we see are generally correct and there are a lot less undecided voters than there were 4 years ago.
Btw, here is more detail as to what I'm talking about:
2016 Wisconsin polling in mid to late August:
Outside of one poll in the above sample that was clearly wrong, Hillary was never above 43%, and she ultimately got 46% of the WI vote. She might have been leading Trump, but there were still a lot of undecided voters who were going to ultimately swing the race. Her campaign (which we know wrote the book on incompetency) somehow saw polling data where she was winning by a weak plurality and interpreted it to mean she had the state locked up.
Most up to date 2020 Wisconsin polling:
This shows (assuming it's correct) that Biden is already in the high 40s/low 50s, and that people who decide between now and election day might not matter at all. The polls show him in much better shape now than Hillary was in 4 years ago in Wisconsin.
Thanks. I've seen some polling this month that indicates many people who are voting Biden are doing so not because they support him, but because they oppose Trump. That's a similar situation to 2016 of hold nose and cast ballot, just not as extreme as 2016.I think the polls are accurate, but I also think it's way too early and things can change (which is why 538 is going Trump a 27% chance even though the polls make it seem like he's going to lose in a landslide).
Biden didn't get much of a convention bump, but voter enthusiasm/approval rating increased for those who were already voting for him, which is important in the sense he isn't relying as much on "lesser of two evils" voters. I want to see what the polling impact is after Trump's RNC. If the RNC doesn't move the polls much either, I interpret that to mean the polls we see are generally correct and there are a lot less undecided voters than there were 4 years ago.
Btw, here is more detail as to what I'm talking about:
2016 Wisconsin polling in mid to late August:
Outside of one poll in the above sample that was clearly wrong, Hillary was never above 43%, and she ultimately got 46% of the WI vote. She might have been leading Trump, but there were still a lot of undecided voters who were going to ultimately swing the race. Her campaign (which we know wrote the book on incompetency) somehow saw polling data where she was winning by a weak plurality and interpreted it to mean she had the state locked up.
Most up to date 2020 Wisconsin polling:
This shows (assuming it's correct) that Biden is already in the high 40s/low 50s, and that people who decide between now and election day might not matter at all. The polls show him in much better shape now than Hillary was in 4 years ago in Wisconsin.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics...ump-and-biden/
So yeah, a lot can happen in 70 days. Personally, I think Trump will carry Florida and may narrowly lose Wisconsin. Biden's campaign, I'm sure, won't completely neglect it like Hillary did.
It was fairly contested in 2012 also:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...bama-1871.html
The answer is that prior to Trump, it's been blue since the Gipper in 1984.
During 2012 it wasn't a sure thing either. Polling was within the margin of error then too. Eventually Obama won by 200,000 votes, but that's a far cry from the 400,000+ difference he obtained in 2008.
Do our damn hand gesture!
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