Who is SpursTalk's favorite 2020 draft prospect heading into September?

[Dejounte]

I understand Precious' appeal of how mobile he looks and how he uses his speed to run all over the court, but I feel like that's a double edged sword. Watching Jalen is like the polar opposite. He's contained, does what he needs to do to guard his man, and if you watch enough, you'll catch these glimpses of playmaking that you see from Precious. He mentioned in an interview that opposing players are respecting his jumper now and that he's learning how to deal with that. If he already has solid shooting and interior scoring, I feel like that's a nice foundation to begin with on the offense. His handle isn't awful and I feel like once he learns how to attack closeouts, he can be a of a player. There's a stark contrast of when you watch Precious after watching Jalen, you kind of witness Precious not knowing where to be at times. The major thing that also drew me to Jalen is his shooting off the dribble. It's ing impressive for someone his height and I feel like that's a gateway to being a star. Any big can spot up and shoot a jumper. But as you watch more and more of Jalen youll see how comfortable he looks shooting the ball in different ways.

Sugus

[Dejounte]

Look at how he glides to the basket at 10:20.

[Sugus]

Cool. It actually took a games to build my impression of him, but this one is a good start. He does his damage in the second half.

So, I watched Maryland vs Michigan. Full disclosure, I couldn't find a video of the entire uncut match, the most YouTube got me was a full-game highlights which was 23m long but had all the scores and some misses. If you have other games that he's made an impact, I'd like to see them (I'll probably just go over to the other thread, I saw you posted a few).

Here's some first impressions and observations I've drawn from the match. I liked his speed and agility: he had surprising control of his body while in air for his length, is really nimble and quick on the run, was mostly active either on the perimeter or searching for space on the inside. I liked that, he was constantly putting himself open out there, and was rewarded on a numerous times on this by getting easy scores near the basket. Him also freeing up the paint at times or staying on the perimeter ready for a catch-and-shoot is also good offensive awareness, he does look like he knows where to be on the court. Doesn't look lost or standing put in the corner like Lonnie does, for example.

I didn't have the best impression of his shooting, maybe he does better in other games but here he missed two, had another blocked by Tillman, and after watching another miss a couple times over, he seems to overdo the wrist flick a bit, and the shot comes out a bit flat, which makes it more propense to hit the backside of the rim and go in-out. Reminded me a bit of how Lebron shoots his 3pointers, obvious differences aside. I don't necessarily think it's a problem (most forms are fine as long as they're repeatable and reliable) and this definitely qualifies as something I'd have to watch out for in other games. Did have some midrange swishes which is good to see he has in his arsenal (already miles better than Jakob offensively, lol).

Beyond that, I thought he dropped down too far down when defending the PnR. Multiple times throughout the game, he's defending the ball-handler after the pick and drops quite too far to be able to recover and contest a pull-up shot, which caused multiple scores over him. Otherwise his man-to-man was good, he was overpowered at times by Tillman though - which brings me to my question. What's his outlook as a player, his projection for the NBA? I see he's playing mostly PF or C through the game, but he looks to be a little too-lightweigth. I think he could put on some muscle without losing too much of his speed and game, of course that can be developed. I liked his frame and build as well, similarly to Keldon he's a player that just has room for muscle, and wide, prominent shoulders. He could become a force to be reckoned with.

It's funny, I was under the impression that he had been a poor rebounder in this game, so I looked at the boxscore online and found out he'd had 10reb that game. I guess my video cut them out... Then heard he was on his 8th consecutive double-double. Impressive. On his defense, I thought he played some solid man-to-man on Tillman, who still went off, and Smith wasn't biting on his fakes in the post which I also liked. Jalen looks to be a disciplined defender, I didn't see him try to gamble for blocks or steals that were unrealistic. I didn't see much perimeter defense from him this game but he was clearly assigned to Tillman whenever he was on the floor, who played mostly inside.

I also didn't think this game was too good a showcase of his ball-handling (the few instances of it looked wonky) or his shooting, so I'll hold my judgment on it. But I liked most of what I saw from him; I didn't mention his screen setting so far, but I also liked that from him, he was consistently trying to get his teammates open and not just the main ball handler, which is really valuable.

I'll be checking out more of him. Where do you think he's going to go, pick wise? Tankathon has him going 19th but 15th on their big board... So #11 might be a bit of a reach (Spurs might still do it if they fall in love with Smith though), but I would really consider him if we traded down with Boston.

[Sugus]

I understand Precious' appeal of how mobile he looks and how he uses his speed to run all over the court, but I feel like that's a double edged sword. Watching Jalen is like the polar opposite. He's contained, does what he needs to do to guard his man, and if you watch enough, you'll catch these glimpses of playmaking that you see from Precious. He mentioned in an interview that opposing players are respecting his jumper now and that he's learning how to deal with that. If he already has solid shooting and interior scoring, I feel like that's a nice foundation to begin with on the offense. His handle isn't awful and I feel like once he learns how to attack closeouts, he can be a of a player. There's a stark contrast of when you watch Precious after watching Jalen, you kind of witness Precious not knowing where to be at times. The major thing that also drew me to Jalen is his shooting off the dribble. It's ing impressive for someone his height and I feel like that's a gateway to being a star. Any big can spot up and shoot a jumper. But as you watch more and more of Jalen youll see how comfortable he looks shooting the ball in different ways.

Sugus

You're gonna have me watching film all night I'm on his second game...

I see what you mean; Smith and Achiuwa are definitely two very different versions of the PF position. Precious certainly falls prey to lapses on the court, but I think those are coachable - I haven't seen something from him that makes me go "yeah, this guy doesn't have BBIQ at all" like I do with someone like Dejounte, who even then has gotten much better in his court awareness over where he was as a rookie. From the little I've watched of Smith, I like Precious' ball-handling more, it just looks more natural which is not an easy feat for a big man. I can see Smith's improving, but right now it looks like the classic big man dribble - and I don't know if it's good enough to consistently penetrate at the NBA level with his size. Even someone like Siakam, by all accounts a much better dribbler than either prospect which has earned him a place in the top 10 of big men in the league, is seeing against Boston that it's much harder to attack the rim and dribble around with a defense targeting you. I don't think Smith is doomed as a ball-handler, but it'll certainly take him some major work to reach a level where he can consistently be a primary penetrator instead of secondary.

Of course, that doesn't have to be who Smith becomes - as you said, just learning how to attack a closeout could turn him into a great player. But I see the more potential-filled face-up and dribble game for Precious, still. Just IMO. Beyond that, yeah, their shooting isn't really comparable. I don't see Precious ever getting an off-the-dribble pullup in his arsenal, whereas Smith has that potential. In a league like the modern NBA, that arguably gives him more value as a player than any kind of post-up game, so I'm interested in him. In fact, I wouldn't expect him to stay at #19 like Tankathon does, especially if the combine takes place and he has good measurements.

[XDT76]

I was all in on Precious at one point. Then all in on Pat. Then all in on Nesmith. Then Isaiah. Now it's Jalen lmfao. Out of these five, Jalen definitely makes the most sense.

I guess if we got one of those 5 we should not be upset, I would prefer Jalen at this moment of time he is a more high level all rounder now. The rest all are more of specialist at this moment of time with possible higher ceiling than Jalen. (I am not familiar with Isaiah though).

[BackHome]

I see Precious as more of 4 - 5 and Smith being more of 3 - 4. I guess at this point you look at who has more upside and who you think fits into your long term plan.

[wildbill2u]

I have a formula for upside potential. Below the 5-10 picks the guy will probably only get to 75% of his upside potential. Below 10-20 probably less than 60% . Now these are not taking into consideration the anomaly of the number 20 who becomes a superstar or one of the 20-30 who becomes a superstar. happens, drafting is all about scouting, not highlight reels, but draft day potential is always subjective. You simply can't factor in injuries, bad conduct, or a team buying into the hype

[exstatic]

I have a formula for upside potential. Below the 5-10 picks the guy will probably only get to 75% of his upside potential. Below 10-20 probably less than 60% . Now these are not taking into consideration the anomaly of the number 20 who becomes a superstar or one of the 20-30 who becomes a superstar. happens, drafting is all about scouting, not highlight reels, but draft day potential is always subjective. You simply can't factor in injuries, bad conduct, or a team buying into the hype

That’s a bit of a choppy formula. Someone posted a graphic a while ago about win shares for each draft position. It’s a little smoother curve, except for that bump at the end of the first round generated by the Spurs over the years. The reality is that you can’t attach a percentage to a range of draft positions without factoring in the teams. Phoenix went the better part of a decade with high picks, blowing it time after time. SA went basically that same period of time with late round picks, and developed productive players who are still in the league. Both of those situations defy your tiered approach.

[Larry O]

The talk is that this Draft Class is underwhelming & perhaps there may be a few, if any, players that has All Star caliber & can build a team around. There are some draft prospects in this draft, especially were the Spurs will draft at eleven, that can either contribute right away or become a project, sending him to Austin for a season. Of coarse, when selecting a draft prospect, it's like gambling. A team will not know what they are getting perhaps by the end of the third or fourth year, unless the player is an All Star or will be an All Star soon. Any ways, it's really hard to read what PATFO wants to draft in this class, let alone in any former selections, TBH. Do they want someone who's ready to contribute right away, in other words, have a high floor ceiling or are they willing to take on a project or someone with high ceiling for development? What are they going to do with LMA, DeRozan, Forbes, Beli, Gay, Poetl, Lyles, etc, going forward? Are they looking to retaining some of these key players, especially like LMA & DeRozan, or perhaps look to free agency for another All Star or role player? So, for me, I just think that there are some key deciding factors in choosing a player at eleven. Could he be the next Leonard in respect for talent and team impact as a above average 3 & D player, with All Star potential, or will he just be a decent role player? After looking at some of the prospects that may land at eleven for the Spurs, there are choices such as: Williams, Nesmith, Okoro, Vassell, Achiuwa, Pokusevski, who is projected at 18, & another ST fav, Jalen Smith, who is projected from 20-30, well, my favorite in this prospect bunch who could land at eleven is Saddiq Bey, a 6'8" combo forward who is a 3&D player who can hit the threes & guard 1-4 positions. With a 6'11" wingspan, he comes in at 216 lbs. He has a high floor ceiling but perhaps a low development ceiling, but he has a high BBIQ, & the 21 year old hails from Villanova, a program whose philosophy hangs its hat on defense & ball movement. That is why I think that he would fit well on this team. Even hearing one of his interviews, he was impressive as to his knowledge of the game. He sounded like a Spur! I believe that this one time PG may be able to contribute right away, either as a starter or coming off the bench, depending on the direction PATFO decides to go. But any one of those prospects on the afore mentioned list, would not disappoint, as well. GSG!!!

[Dejounte]

Here's some first impressions and observations I've drawn from the match. I liked his speed and agility: he had surprising control of his body while in air for his length, is really nimble and quick on the run, was mostly active either on the perimeter or searching for space on the inside. I liked that, he was constantly putting himself open out there, and was rewarded on a numerous times on this by getting easy scores near the basket. Him also freeing up the paint at times or staying on the perimeter ready for a catch-and-shoot is also good offensive awareness, he does look like he knows where to be on the court. Doesn't look lost or standing put in the corner like Lonnie does, for example.

Great catch.

I didn't have the best impression of his shooting, maybe he does better in other games but here he missed two, had another blocked by Tillman, and after watching another miss a couple times over, he seems to overdo the wrist flick a bit, and the shot comes out a bit flat, which makes it more propense to hit the backside of the rim and go in-out. Reminded me a bit of how Lebron shoots his 3pointers, obvious differences aside. I don't necessarily think it's a problem (most forms are fine as long as they're repeatable and reliable) and this definitely qualifies as something I'd have to watch out for in other games. Did have some midrange swishes which is good to see he has in his arsenal (already miles better than Jakob offensively, lol).

Agreed. I read from a scout that his mechanics are not broken and he just needs to be taught to aim it higher. It explains his lower percentages in guarded situations. His shot looks pure and it looks like he just needs more confidence to keep shooting.

Beyond that, I thought he dropped down too far down when defending the PnR. Multiple times throughout the game, he's defending the ball-handler after the pick and drops quite too far to be able to recover and contest a pull-up shot, which caused multiple scores over him. Otherwise his man-to-man was good, he was overpowered at times by Tillman though - which brings me to my question. What's his outlook as a player, his projection for the NBA? I see he's playing mostly PF or C through the game, but he looks to be a little too-lightweigth. I think he could put on some muscle without losing too much of his speed and game, of course that can be developed. I liked his frame and build as well, similarly to Keldon he's a player that just has room for muscle, and wide, prominent shoulders. He could become a force to be reckoned with.

I agree he dropped too far down. I'm hoping it's a discipline thing that can be fixed. I like his defensive stance over Samanic's. At least he's trying.

And yes, he gets overpowered from time to time by centers like Tillman. I think he'll be a PF in the NBA. His game and movement looks like it will become a hybrid of KG's and Siakam's.

It's funny, I was under the impression that he had been a poor rebounder in this game, so I looked at the boxscore online and found out he'd had 10reb that game. I guess my video cut them out... Then heard he was on his 8th consecutive double-double. Impressive. On his defense, I thought he played some solid man-to-man on Tillman, who still went off, and Smith wasn't biting on his fakes in the post which I also liked. Jalen looks to be a disciplined defender, I didn't see him try to gamble for blocks or steals that were unrealistic. I didn't see much perimeter defense from him this game but he was clearly assigned to Tillman whenever he was on the floor, who played mostly inside.

This is accurate. He's disciplined when it comes to 1 on 1 defense. He was only occasionally able to showcase his perimeter defense, but he has acknowledged in an interview that it is something he is preparing for (to guard the likes of quick guards like Irving)

I'll be checking out more of him. Where do you think he's going to go, pick wise? Tankathon has him going 19th but 15th on their big board... So #11 might be a bit of a reach (Spurs might still do it if they fall in love with Smith though), but I would really consider him if we traded down with Boston.

I think he'll go 11th

[Dejounte]

You're gonna have me watching film all night I'm on his second game...

I see what you mean; Smith and Achiuwa are definitely two very different versions of the PF position. Precious certainly falls prey to lapses on the court, but I think those are coachable - I haven't seen something from him that makes me go "yeah, this guy doesn't have BBIQ at all" like I do with someone like Dejounte, who even then has gotten much better in his court awareness over where he was as a rookie. From the little I've watched of Smith, I like Precious' ball-handling more, it just looks more natural which is not an easy feat for a big man. I can see Smith's improving, but right now it looks like the classic big man dribble - and I don't know if it's good enough to consistently penetrate at the NBA level with his size. Even someone like Siakam, by all accounts a much better dribbler than either prospect which has earned him a place in the top 10 of big men in the league, is seeing against Boston that it's much harder to attack the rim and dribble around with a defense targeting you. I don't think Smith is doomed as a ball-handler, but it'll certainly take him some major work to reach a level where he can consistently be a primary penetrator instead of secondary.

Of course, that doesn't have to be who Smith becomes - as you said, just learning how to attack a closeout could turn him into a great player. But I see the more potential-filled face-up and dribble game for Precious, still. Just IMO. Beyond that, yeah, their shooting isn't really comparable. I don't see Precious ever getting an off-the-dribble pullup in his arsenal, whereas Smith has that potential. In a league like the modern NBA, that arguably gives him more value as a player than any kind of post-up game, so I'm interested in him. In fact, I wouldn't expect him to stay at #19 like Tankathon does, especially if the combine takes place and he has good measurements.

I agree. Precious' ball handling looks ahead of Smith's right now. I just feel like with Smith's smarts on the court will earn him minutes faster thereby expediting his development faster over if Precious was on this team. Watching Precious sometimes makes me pull my hair out. I feel like Smith has a set of tools that are simply ready-to-go, much like Keldon was. People will say he looks like he has a lower ceiling, but if he gets drafted and starts putting up double doubles I think their minds will change.

[Sugus]

Agreed. I read from a scout that his mechanics are not broken and he just needs to be taught to aim it higher. It explains his lower percentages in guarded situations. His shot looks pure and it looks like he just needs more confidence to keep shooting.

Yeah, for sure something that's fixable. I watched some other highlights of his, and he doesn't look to have a bad form at all, quite efficient and repeatable. I don't doubt that he could turn into a truly respectable shooter from 3, which would open up his inside game. I'm liking what I'm seeing from him.

I agree he dropped too far down. I'm hoping it's a discipline thing that can be fixed. I like his defensive stance over Samanic's. At least he's trying.

I'm thinking it might be more of a defensive scheme than anything. I'm sure long 2's off the PnR aren't the most valuable shots to any coach, so conceding them might've been the plan. I haven't watched enough games to know for sure... Surely looks adjustable with a new scheme in place. I also like his defensive instincts, the guy is just constantly mobile and on his feet - quite relentless. With his length, he has the potential to be a very disruptive defender, especially if he learns to play passing lanes and interceptions. Certainly seems to have a good BBIQ which gives him a higher ceiling on both ends.

And yes, he gets overpowered from time to time by centers like Tillman. I think he'll be a PF in the NBA. His game and movement looks like it will become a hybrid of KG's and Siakam's.

Agree on that, especially considering the "new NBA size" where 4's are more often than not yesteryear's 3s. I'd like to see Smith develop his handle and playmaking more, since he certainly has the speed to expand on that front, but of course it's something you work on over the seasons. Really reminded me of Siakam too when watching some more film. Just a good prototypical modern 4. His post game is intriguing as well... Seems to have good timing and fakes in his repertoire, and his rebounding near the basket opens up a lot of second-chance opportuinites. For a team as rebounding-deprived as the Spurs currently are, that's a great fit.

This is accurate. He's disciplined when it comes to 1 on 1 defense. He was only occasionally able to showcase his perimeter defense, but he has acknowledged in an interview that it is something he is preparing for (to guard the likes of quick guards like Irving)

Yeah, I'm not too worried. We don't need him to be able to defend the Irvings of the league too much, except for some switches here and there - as long as he isn't so slow or flat-footed as to be a liability, we can cover him with some of our other guards. I'd like to see how he develops on D with Timmy coaching him up...

I think he'll go 11th

I didn't even have him on my radar until one of your posts, but I certainly wouldn't be opposed after watching him some. You talk about Precious vs Smith in your other post, and I tend to agree that even though Precious is the superior ball-handler for now, he doesn't look to have the higher IQ. I don't think it's a death sentence nor something that can't be worked on, and he certainly doesn't look as dumb as Dejounte for example, but it's a valid concern. I personally would love to trade down and get both if possible... Spurs might just fix their long-term frontcourt in a single draft, then have next year to fish for their star ball-handling 3 in the lottery while the team develops. Of course, it's a bit of a pipe dream, but until more accurate reports come out... I'm daydreaming.

[wildbill2u]

Amazing how many of us voted for Poku Spurs fans going for the biggest question mark in the draft with the big upside

[pad300]

Amazing how many of us voted for Poku Spurs fans going for the biggest question mark in the draft with the big upside

It's pretty clear that this team needs a needle mover, not a good roleplayer... Of the PF's and C's we're discussing at 11, he's the one with the chance to be a big difference maker.

[MultiTroll]

Tacko Falls brother Nacho.