Jalen Smith - 2020 NBA Draft Prospect

[SAGirl]

Like you with Primo?

Kind of out of topic tbh.


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edit: Ok it was late last night, but I wasn’t looking to troll excstatic, though he jumped out of the gate like I was.

I remembered this guy was discussed in the past vaguely. I wasn’t exactly sure what was discussed about him so I had to look it up.

My opinion on Primo is based on current observation and leaves open the possibility he will be much better next season bc he’s very young and improving and his shot was also altered and was thus missing.

Ex seemed to have a really bad opinion on this guy based on spotty minutes he played for the Suns at the time and the fact that the Suns gave up on him too early. The context is that the Suns are in win now mode and have no development time to find this guy, with current better players ahead of him. One could say he wasn’t even given much of an opportunity. The Phoenix roster is getting very expensive and they also can’t afford him. I think the context there is different from Primo, though your point is well made that both guys were projects at the time. Ex just seemed damning on guy in a bad situation and more willing to give a chance to a different project because he’s on the Spurs in a good situation. At least be honest about it.

If I remember correctly, the Suns were trying to trade Smith for Thad Young and the Spurs were interested. That was before the Suns ended up declining his option this past summer. I think the Spurs declined that trade bc the Suns wanted to attach Saric, but if the Spurs really wanted him in a cost controlled contract that was possible at the time. The Spurs probably also wanted more for Thad Young.
In looking back, I am trying to read the tea leaves of how genuine the Spurs interest was in this guy at the time.

[XDT76]

Things like this ^ are the reason one doesn’t worry about fit with current roster when scouting in the draft. I am not calling you out in this specifically, that’s not my intention. A lot guys do it, but fit is not even a consideration when fishing for the best upside possible in the draft. Samanic hadn’t shown much at that point but some athleticism and theoretical skills.

The point is really that many of the guys in the current roster, even young guys are probably not going to be around when the Spurs are compe ive again, so it’s better to leave fit as a consideration for free agency, but not for the draft.

I am not advocating it, but Spurs may yet draft another wing because Walker is not what they hoped and Primo doesn’t look like a sure thing, and even if he were, it’d be like passing up the opportunity to draft Jimmy Buckets and Kawhi the same year bc you wanted CoJo.

This is a flaw thinking you cannot keep drafting players year after year at the same position. It makes your team totally imbalance and when everyone knows your need for a position they will hold you to ransom. Also as you keep drafting the so call BPA at the same position you deny them playing time and thus restrict their potential by the time their rookie contract is coming to and end.

[KingKev]

We’ve had alot of dead cap the last 4-5 years. Given how thin this free agency is and hopefully no return of Walker taking a chance in Smith makes a ton of sense. Few teams will be able to pay him for than the MLE and Indiana has limited to no ability to sign and trade him.

[The Truth #6]

Good bump on this thread to see how things change. I didn't love him out of the draft, but I liked him when the Suns were giving up on him. If we could get him in the off-season for a good deal makes sense.

[Seventyniner]

Kind of out of topic tbh.


——————————————————
edit: Ok it was late last night, but I wasn’t looking to troll excstatic, though he jumped out of the gate like I was.

I remembered this guy was discussed in the past vaguely. I wasn’t exactly sure what was discussed about him so I had to look it up.

My opinion on Primo is based on current observation and leaves open the possibility he will be much better next season bc he’s very young and improving and his shot was also altered and was thus missing.

Ex seemed to have a really bad opinion on this guy based on spotty minutes he played for the Suns at the time and the fact that the Suns gave up on him too early. The context is that the Suns are in win now mode and have no development time to find this guy, with current better players ahead of him. One could say he wasn’t even given much of an opportunity. The Phoenix roster is getting very expensive and they also can’t afford him. I think the context there is different from Primo, though your point is well made that both guys were projects at the time. Ex just seemed damning on guy in a bad situation and more willing to give a chance to a different project because he’s on the Spurs in a good situation. At least be honest about it.

If I remember correctly, the Suns were trying to trade Smith for Thad Young and the Spurs were interested. That was before the Suns ended up declining his option this past summer. I think the Spurs declined that trade bc the Suns wanted to attach Saric, but if the Spurs really wanted him in a cost controlled contract that was possible at the time. The Spurs probably also wanted more for Thad Young.
In looking back, I am trying to read the tea leaves of how genuine the Spurs interest was in this guy at the time.

Ex has been saying all along that whichever team had Jalen Smith on their roster at the end of this season could not sign him to a contract starting at more than $4.7M. He will almost certainly command more than that in the market, so if the Spurs actually have interest in signing him the best thing they could have done at the trade deadline was not trade for him.

Now the Pacers are in the same spot: they can't pay him more than $4.7M so he will almost certainly walk. They got Phoenix's second out of the deal, but unsurprisingly it's the 60th pick. I don't understand why they did that trade.

[exstatic]

Ex has been saying all along that whichever team had Jalen Smith on their roster at the end of this season could not sign him to a contract starting at more than $4.7M. He will almost certainly command more than that in the market, so if the Spurs actually have interest in signing him the best thing they could have done at the trade deadline was not trade for him.

Now the Pacers are in the same spot: they can't pay him more than $4.7M so he will almost certainly walk. They got Phoenix's second out of the deal, but unsurprisingly it's the 60th pick. I don't understand why they did that trade.

Kevin Pritchard is the GM/POBO for Indy, so they didn’t miss any information on the situation. The obvious slant is that they didn’t have interest in him this summer, having Turner and Isaiah Jackson, so they accepted him as salary ballast to obtain a SRP. They played him way too much to try to fly under the radar and re-sign him cheaply.

[Seventyniner]

Kevin Pritchard is the GM/POBO for Indy, so they didn’t miss any information on the situation. The obvious slant is that they didn’t have interest in him this summer, having Turner and Isaiah Jackson, so they accepted him as salary ballast to obtain a SRP. They played him way too much to try to fly under the radar and re-sign him cheaply.

You're right, it does make sense that the Pacers never wanted to sign him this summer anyway. And the #60 pick isn't much but it's better than nothing.

If the Spurs do want Jalen Smith, Indiana having taken themselves out of the running is good. That leaves only four teams with more than the MLE, right? Spurs/Thunder/Magic/Blazers are the ones I'm aware of.

[R. DeMurre]

This is a flaw thinking you cannot keep drafting players year after year at the same position. It makes your team totally imbalance and when everyone knows your need for a position they will hold you to ransom. Also as you keep drafting the so call BPA at the same position you deny them playing time and thus restrict their potential by the time their rookie contract is coming to and end.

That line of thinking also has its flaws... One of the reasons the Trailblazers decided not to draft Jordan was because they already had Clyde Drexler. That's a monumental mistake.

[KingKev]

You're right, it does make sense that the Pacers never wanted to sign him this summer anyway. And the #60 pick isn't much but it's better than nothing.

If the Spurs do want Jalen Smith, Indiana having taken themselves out of the running is good. That leaves only four teams with more than the MLE, right? Spurs/Thunder/Magic/Blazers are the ones I'm aware of.

Detroit, potentially Memphis and Cleveland (doubt they'd be a suitor)

Most so called “NBA analysts” are too stupid or lazy (usually both) to actually really dig deep and make an accurate forecast of teams projected cap… and by digging deep I mean applying common sense to a few google searches.

[exstatic]

That line of thinking also has its flaws... One of the reasons the Trailblazers decided not to draft Jordan was because they already had Clyde Drexler. That's a monumental mistake.

Imagine if Houston passed on Olajuwon because they already had Ralph Sampson. Or, if the Spurs passed on Tim, because we already had David.

[scott]

Okay, hypothetical time because what else is there to do while the first round of the playoffs rages on without us?

I'm glad we have a pretty good gaggle of Smith followers here, because it takes some unknown (for fans) out of what appears to be a viable off-season target for us.

There appears to be some deal of debate around whether Jalen Smith is a 4/5 or strictly a 5. For the purposes of this question, that debate doesn't need resolution now... but let's combine the discussion of Jalen with the seemingly prevailing thought that we should sell Jak while his value is high.

How would you feel a combination of Smith/Zac/Jock/Draft pick in the C rotation going into next season? If we did trade Jak, hypothetically for some future FRP considerations as to not cloud the 2022 Draft discussion, and sign Smith... do you feel alright about the C position? Does it push your consideration of Duren or Williams up? Do you look to a Serge Ibaka-type short term addition to the lineup?

Let's say you trade Jak, sign Smith and either draft Duren or sign Ibaka or Drummond. You'll likely add someone who can play PF in the draft as well at some point, but will be groomed the "Spurs way". Does a PF rotation of Smith and Zac, while also filling in minutes at C shore up some of our rotation issues? Allow Keldon to play the proper position?

Just spit ballin' here.

[PhantomDashCam]

Have a few hours free this w/e (public holiday Monday in Australia), and I’m going through some league pass Indiana games from March to April focusing on Mr. Smith. This was from about the 7-8th game from when he arrived on the team. Thought this would give a reasonable baseline for performance taking into account familiarity with personnel and some team concepts/philosophies.

- I’m using NBA.com’s Full Play by Play purely to locate when Jalen Smith checks into the game and then watching all the content until he checks out. Rinse and repeat.

- If anybody has a particular game they would like me to check out, let me know. (Even from his tenure in Phoenix, Summer League etc. Just let me know the date).

Initial observations:

- Jalen is playing some 4/5 on Offense but is strictly playing the 5 on Defense. Even in a wacky lineup for short stretches that contained Brishett, Isaiah Jackson and Smith in the Frontcourt, he was strictly playing the 5.

- He gets pushed off his spots quite easily when anywhere near the paint. He can be nudged under the basket for rebounds.
This appears to have been a problem for sometime as while his upper body is developed, his core/legs are not. It’s why he got the nickname ‘Sticks’ I believe…

- He really does have a sweet stroke that belies his numbers. He’s also improved at putting the ball on the deck to attack close outs and get to the rim from the previous film I’ve seen.

[XDT76]

That line of thinking also has its flaws... One of the reasons the Trailblazers decided not to draft Jordan was because they already had Clyde Drexler. That's a monumental mistake.

If we are drafting at the top end of the lottery sure, however we are not. Now we are playing SG/Combo guards up to 4 positions, we are lucky that DjM has grown leaps and bound but we cannot afford to keep doing this unless we are going to get rid of a couple of them, there will be people not getting playing time and we suffer at positions when they are asked to play out of their natural position.

[mo7888]

Have a few hours free this w/e (public holiday Monday in Australia), and I’m going through some league pass Indiana games from March to April focusing on Mr. Smith. This was from about the 7-8th game from when he arrived on the team. Thought this would give a reasonable baseline for performance taking into account familiarity with personnel and some team concepts/philosophies.

- I’m using NBA.com’s Full Play by Play purely to locate when Jalen Smith checks into the game and then watching all the content until he checks out. Rinse and repeat.

- If anybody has a particular game they would like me to check out, let me know. (Even from his tenure in Phoenix, Summer League etc. Just let me know the date).

Initial observations:

- Jalen is playing some 4/5 on Offense but is strictly playing the 5 on Defense. Even in a wacky lineup for short stretches that contained Brishett, Isaiah Jackson and Smith in the Frontcourt, he was strictly playing the 5.

- He gets pushed off his spots quite easily when anywhere near the paint. He can be nudged under the basket for rebounds.
This appears to have been a problem for sometime as while his upper body is developed, his core/legs are not. It’s why he got the nickname ‘Sticks’ I believe…

- He really does have a sweet stroke that belies his numbers. He’s also improved at putting the ball on the deck to attack close outs and get to the rim from the previous film I’ve seen.

It's the fact that he plays the 5 so much that makes me skeptical that he can be a starting 4 in the league. A part-time 4/5 coming off the bench would be nice but, I wouldn't want to be the team offering him a full MLE. If you can get him less than that I can see the value though..

[KingKev]

He looks like he can easily play the 4 on O from what I saw this year.

[SAGirl]

Ex has been saying all along that whichever team had Jalen Smith on their roster at the end of this season could not sign him to a contract starting at more than $4.7M. He will almost certainly command more than that in the market, so if the Spurs actually have interest in signing him the best thing they could have done at the trade deadline was not trade for him.

Now the Pacers are in the same spot: they can't pay him more than $4.7M so he will almost certainly walk. They got Phoenix's second out of the deal, but unsurprisingly it's the 60th pick. I don't understand why they did that trade.

I think he was in the market during the summer b4 the Suns decided not to pick up his option?

Some of my trying to look up the Spurs interest goes back to that period. Why not trade for him then? I think it was bc Suns wanted to attach Saric. Once Suns declined his option, there were rumors Spurs were interested still but I think at that point they were looking for. Bryn Forbes trade. With how active the Spurs were this year with trades it wouldn’t surprise me he was discussed in different scenarios, but yeah, once Phoenix declined his options, it definitely changed his value. They also stopped insisting on attaching Saric after.

[exstatic]

I think he was in the market during the summer b4 the Suns decided not to pick up his option?

Some of my trying to look up the Spurs interest goes back to that period. Why not trade for him then? I think it was bc Suns wanted to attach Saric. Once Suns declined his option, there were rumors Spurs were interested still but I think at that point they were looking for. Bryn Forbes trade. With how active the Spurs were this year with trades it wouldn’t surprise me he was discussed in different scenarios, but yeah, once Phoenix declined his options, it definitely changed his value. They also stopped insisting on attaching Saric after.

It wasn’t Jalen that made the trade unpalatable. To trade for Thad, they needed to balance the contracts by throwing in Saric, who was out all of last season with a torn ACL, and has next year still on his contract. Based on our transactions the last year, we asked for a FRP, and they said no, so we said no. At the time, Jalen had little to no value, so they needed to send draft assets to pay for eating Saric’s contract.

The irony is, they are deep in tax jail, so they may end up dealing with us anyway, Saric is now healed, and if we sign Smith, we end up with what we wanted from them, and they paid Saric’s salary while he was injured, and didn’t get Thad. We could get a a FRP for taking Saric into caproom, and then do an OKC, and flip him to a contender at the deadline for another asset.

[Thomas82]

This is a flaw thinking you cannot keep drafting players year after year at the same position. It makes your team totally imbalance and when everyone knows your need for a position they will hold you to ransom. Also as you keep drafting the so call BPA at the same position you deny them playing time and thus restrict their potential by the time their rookie contract is coming to and end.

This is why I have been so frustrated to see us drafting guards every year.

[BackHome]

This is what happens when you draft in the teens vs drafting players in the top 6

[JPB]

That line of thinking also has its flaws... One of the reasons the Trailblazers decided not to draft Jordan was because they already had Clyde Drexler. That's a monumental mistake.

Sam Perkins tho.

[R. DeMurre]

If we are drafting at the top end of the lottery sure, however we are not. Now we are playing SG/Combo guards up to 4 positions, we are lucky that DjM has grown leaps and bound but we cannot afford to keep doing this unless we are going to get rid of a couple of them, there will be people not getting playing time and we suffer at positions when they are asked to play out of their natural position.

Don't give up hope yet! In 23 days we'll see if the 4.5% chance for #1 or 20.3% chance for top 4 pans out. But yeah, generally speaking I agree. Someone 6'8" or over would be nice.

[SAGirl]

Have a few hours free this w/e (public holiday Monday in Australia), and I’m going through some league pass Indiana games from March to April focusing on Mr. Smith. This was from about the 7-8th game from when he arrived on the team. Thought this would give a reasonable baseline for performance taking into account familiarity with personnel and some team concepts/philosophies.

- I’m using NBA.com’s Full Play by Play purely to locate when Jalen Smith checks into the game and then watching all the content until he checks out. Rinse and repeat.

- If anybody has a particular game they would like me to check out, let me know. (Even from his tenure in Phoenix, Summer League etc. Just let me know the date).

Initial observations:

- Jalen is playing some 4/5 on Offense but is strictly playing the 5 on Defense. Even in a wacky lineup for short stretches that contained Brishett, Isaiah Jackson and Smith in the Frontcourt, he was strictly playing the 5.

- He gets pushed off his spots quite easily when anywhere near the paint. He can be nudged under the basket for rebounds.
This appears to have been a problem for sometime as while his upper body is developed, his core/legs are not. It’s why he got the nickname ‘Sticks’ I believe…

- He really does have a sweet stroke that belies his numbers. He’s also improved at putting the ball on the deck to attack close outs and get to the rim from the previous film I’ve seen.

Thanks for the scouting report. Much appreciated.

[PhantomDashCam]

Just wanted to revisit this quickly. I’m absolutely convinced that Jalen Smith is a 5 in today’s NBA.

Here’s a nice example of perimeter Defense:
- Switches onto Okeke, stays in front and uses length to deter at the rim
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?CF...Layup&sct=plot

Here are some that should have people concerned about long term prospect as a 4
- Loses Ross for an open 3
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?CF...0AST)&sct=plot

- Ross simple step back to get separation for 3
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?CF...0PTS)&sct=plot

Some examples of the Core strength/rebounding issues, unable to hold his ground

- Gets muscled by Fultz and gives up the Defensive board
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?CF...ef:2)&sct=plot

- Doesn’t box out Bamba who gets the easy put back
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?CF...0PTS)&sct=plot

[exstatic]

Just wanted to revisit this quickly. I’m absolutely convinced that Jalen Smith is a 5 in today’s NBA.

Here’s a nice example of perimeter Defense:
- Switches onto Okeke, stays in front and uses length to deter at the rim
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?CF...Layup&sct=plot

Here are some that should have people concerned about long term prospect as a 4
- Loses Ross for an open 3
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?CF...0AST)&sct=plot

- Ross simple step back to get separation for 3
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?CF...0PTS)&sct=plot

Some examples of the Core strength/rebounding issues, unable to hold his ground

- Gets muscled by Fultz and gives up the Defensive board
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?CF...ef:2)&sct=plot

- Doesn’t box out Bamba who gets the easy put back
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?CF...0PTS)&sct=plot

Nice cherry pick videos. Now, ask yourself if either Keldon or McD could have made those defensive plays.

[PhantomDashCam]

I just use Occam’s razor a lot.

All other things being equal, the simplest, least variable explanation is usually right.

People, especially in todays Disinformation Society, have a way of over complicating things, instead of just seeing what’s right in front of them. You can come up with any number of theories, but I just see him not playing, and the team that drafted him #10 overall a little over a year ago refused to pick up an option that was about HALF of the mid level, and it’s just not really a reach to say he sucks. I don’t care what he did in SL. No one there cares about anything but scoring, certainly not defense. PHO also didn’t hang Ayton out to dry. They couldn’t reach a common salary number, but he’s still restricted next summer, and they can match.

Nice cherry pick videos. Now, ask yourself if either Keldon or McD could have made those defensive plays.

My argument was that he's not a 4, especially on Defense, (and let's be honest, that's the bread and butter of all lineup discussions). I provided some clips to show why that would be problematic.
Happy for you to provide videos, evidence to the contrary.

Bringing in Keldon or McD to the discussion, (widely acknowledged defensive liabilities, who also just happen to be Spurs), to prop up an argument that we should sign Smith as a 4, (currently unable to play that position effectively, also not a Spur), just because he can be as inept defensively on the perimeter seems somewhat counter productive to me.