Yep this one’s gonna knock out my power. It doesn’t look too impressive on the radar... yet. Hopefully it’s just a Cat 1.
Looks like a poor-woman's Katrina in terms of the similar track into just east of Lake Pontchartrain / somewhat weaker intensity. They are calling for a Cat 2 landfall for now, but aren't ruling out rapid intensification, and it's the peak of hurricane season.
Currently a strengthening mid-grade TS Sunday morning.
Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020
Corrected for inland status at 60 and 72 hourrs
A large burst of convection has formed near the center of Sally this
morning, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that
the storm is strengthening. Peak flight-level winds were up to 57
kt at 925 mb, with believable SFMR winds of up to 45 kt, and
pressure falling a couple of mb to 1001. The initial wind speed is
set to 45 kt for this advisory.
While northwesterly shear has been affecting Sally, the global
models suggest that the shear will decrease later today as it moves
under a narrow ridge. Models all respond to these changing
conditions by showing intensification, but they disagree on the rate
of change. It is an extremely tricky forecast because of how this
might happen close to landfall, but guidance is generally 5-10 kt
higher than the last cycle so the intensity forecast has been raised
by those amounts up through landfall. It is worth noting that rapid
intensification is a possibility if the system develops a more solid
inner core on Monday, and stronger solutions like the HWRF model
can't be dismissed.
Sally is moving west-northwestward at a faster speed this morning.
The biggest change to note is that almost every model has shifted
westward (faster) due to narrow ridging developing across the
northern Gulf Coast between the storm and an exiting mid-la ude
trough. The flow gets quite weak near and after landfall, so the
cyclone should slow down on Tuesday/Wednesday and turn northward.
After that time, the next trough should induce a faster
northeastward motion by day 5. The new track is shifted westward
between 30-45 n mi near the coast of Louisiana, and is still east of
the GFS and ECMWF models.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track
or intensity forecasts, as the average NHC track error at 48 h is
around 80-90 miles and the average intensity error is around 10-15
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center. Unfortunately, confidence is increasing
that Sally's expected slow forward speed near the Gulf Coast will
exacerbate the storm surge and heavy rainfall threats.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now
expected, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside
the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction
System from Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected by early Tuesday from Grand
Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including
Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by
Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas.
3. Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across
southern and central Florida and prolong existing minor river
flooding across Central Florida through Monday. Significant flash
flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across
portions of the Central Gulf Coast from Monday through the middle of
the week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 27.7N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 28.3N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 28.7N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 29.2N 89.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 30.1N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0600Z 31.0N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/0600Z 32.8N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0600Z 34.5N 84.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Blake
Yep this one’s gonna knock out my power. It doesn’t look too impressive on the radar... yet. Hopefully it’s just a Cat 1.
Forecasted for a cat 2, but we all know rapid intensification is very possible/likely in this part of the Gulf, this time of year, and the hostile wind shear is expected to go from 15 knots to next to nothing for 48 hours.
weak cat 1 heading to Mississippi
yeah, kind of a dud compared to how the season has gone thus far.
Nevermind.... 2020 continues to be the season of giving
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/141631.shtml
Hurricane Sally Special Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally recently
measured peak flight-level winds of 88 kt at 700 mb and SFMR winds
of 78 kt north of the center, and an Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft just measured 79 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb. These
data indicate that Sally has rapidly strengthened into a hurricane
with an intensity of around 80 kt. In addition, data from the KEVX
WSR-88D show an eye forming at around 16,000 ft al ude. This
special advisory has been issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity. Additional adjustments to the intensity forecast
could be required this afternoon. Only a slight adjustment was made
to the 12-h track forecast position based on the more northward and
eastward initial position.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average
forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
center.
2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight within the Hurricane
Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late
Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and
Alabama coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin
later today and this evening in these areas and preparations
should be rushed to completion.
4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread
minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just
inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban
flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the
week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the
Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash
flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor
river flooding across west-central Florida through today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1630Z 28.7N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 28.8N 87.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 29.2N 88.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 29.8N 89.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 30.8N 88.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 17/0000Z 31.8N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1200Z 32.6N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 33.1N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
yeah it could be a cat 2 after all. Missing us to the east though.
looks like it could stall long enough over water and become a cat 3, but yes the landfall is more toward gulfport/Mobile as opposed to a direct NOLA hit.
100 MPH Cat 2. Should be a Cat 3 landfall. Not a "Dud" tbh.
Only thing this year is missing is a nice natural disaster, tbh.
well we had a Cat 4 hit the Gulf Coast, but a relatively unpopulated location.
Sally is certainly a disappointment... why'd she weaken to Cat 1 over open water? Wtf.
The salt from your tears was injected into the eyewall causing weakening, duh. Simple meteor ology
so you're implying I would rather see a cat 3-4 strike a big coastal city and cause billions in damage? On the eave of the election when everyone knows I strongly support the in bent president? you've got to be kidding.
Now if Obummer were president...
Relax, it’s hitting in Pensacola for some rain. The next hurricanes may be much worse tbh
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