Results 1 to 16 of 16
  1. #1
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
    Location
    Prancelina, PDA
    Post Count
    24,546
    NBA Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    College
    North Texas Mean Green
    Looks like a poor-woman's Katrina in terms of the similar track into just east of Lake Pontchartrain / somewhat weaker intensity. They are calling for a Cat 2 landfall for now, but aren't ruling out rapid intensification, and it's the peak of hurricane season.

    Currently a strengthening mid-grade TS Sunday morning.




    Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 7...Corrected
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
    500 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

    Corrected for inland status at 60 and 72 hourrs

    A large burst of convection has formed near the center of Sally this
    morning, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that
    the storm is strengthening. Peak flight-level winds were up to 57
    kt at 925 mb, with believable SFMR winds of up to 45 kt, and
    pressure falling a couple of mb to 1001. The initial wind speed is
    set to 45 kt for this advisory.

    While northwesterly shear has been affecting Sally, the global
    models suggest that the shear will decrease later today as it moves
    under a narrow ridge. Models all respond to these changing
    conditions by showing intensification, but they disagree on the rate
    of change. It is an extremely tricky forecast because of how this
    might happen close to landfall, but guidance is generally 5-10 kt
    higher than the last cycle so the intensity forecast has been raised
    by those amounts up through landfall. It is worth noting that rapid
    intensification is a possibility if the system develops a more solid
    inner core on Monday, and stronger solutions like the HWRF model
    can't be dismissed.

    Sally is moving west-northwestward at a faster speed this morning.
    The biggest change to note is that almost every model has shifted
    westward (faster) due to narrow ridging developing across the
    northern Gulf Coast between the storm and an exiting mid-la ude
    trough. The flow gets quite weak near and after landfall, so the
    cyclone should slow down on Tuesday/Wednesday and turn northward.
    After that time, the next trough should induce a faster
    northeastward motion by day 5. The new track is shifted westward
    between 30-45 n mi near the coast of Louisiana, and is still east of
    the GFS and ECMWF models.

    Users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track
    or intensity forecasts, as the average NHC track error at 48 h is
    around 80-90 miles and the average intensity error is around 10-15
    mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
    extend far from the center. Unfortunately, confidence is increasing
    that Sally's expected slow forward speed near the Gulf Coast will
    exacerbate the storm surge and heavy rainfall threats.

    KEY MESSAGES:

    1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now
    expected, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside
    the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction
    System from Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
    border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
    local officials.

    2. Hurricane conditions are expected by early Tuesday from Grand
    Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including
    Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by
    Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas.

    3. Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across
    southern and central Florida and prolong existing minor river
    flooding across Central Florida through Monday. Significant flash
    flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across
    portions of the Central Gulf Coast from Monday through the middle of
    the week.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 13/0900Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 13/1800Z 27.7N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
    24H 14/0600Z 28.3N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
    36H 14/1800Z 28.7N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
    48H 15/0600Z 29.2N 89.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
    60H 15/1800Z 30.1N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
    72H 16/0600Z 31.0N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
    96H 17/0600Z 32.8N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    120H 18/0600Z 34.5N 84.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

    $$
    Forecaster Blake

  2. #2
    We've got a job to do. Darth_Pelican's Avatar
    Location
    New Orleans
    Post Count
    8,191
    NBA Team
    New Orleans Pelicans
    College
    LSU Tigers
    Yep this one’s gonna knock out my power. It doesn’t look too impressive on the radar... yet. Hopefully it’s just a Cat 1.

  3. #3
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
    Location
    Prancelina, PDA
    Post Count
    24,546
    NBA Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    College
    North Texas Mean Green
    Yep this one’s gonna knock out my power. It doesn’t look too impressive on the radar... yet. Hopefully it’s just a Cat 1.
    Forecasted for a cat 2, but we all know rapid intensification is very possible/likely in this part of the Gulf, this time of year, and the hostile wind shear is expected to go from 15 knots to next to nothing for 48 hours.

  4. #4
    We've got a job to do. Darth_Pelican's Avatar
    Location
    New Orleans
    Post Count
    8,191
    NBA Team
    New Orleans Pelicans
    College
    LSU Tigers
    weak cat 1 heading to Mississippi

  5. #5
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
    Location
    Prancelina, PDA
    Post Count
    24,546
    NBA Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    College
    North Texas Mean Green
    weak cat 1 heading to Mississippi
    yeah, kind of a dud compared to how the season has gone thus far.

  6. #6
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
    Location
    Prancelina, PDA
    Post Count
    24,546
    NBA Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    College
    North Texas Mean Green
    Nevermind.... 2020 continues to be the season of giving

  7. #7
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
    Location
    Prancelina, PDA
    Post Count
    24,546
    NBA Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    College
    North Texas Mean Green
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/141631.shtml

    Hurricane Sally Special Discussion Number 13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
    1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

    A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally recently
    measured peak flight-level winds of 88 kt at 700 mb and SFMR winds
    of 78 kt north of the center, and an Air Force reconnaissance
    aircraft just measured 79 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb. These
    data indicate that Sally has rapidly strengthened into a hurricane
    with an intensity of around 80 kt. In addition, data from the KEVX
    WSR-88D show an eye forming at around 16,000 ft al ude. This
    special advisory has been issued to increase the initial and
    forecast intensity. Additional adjustments to the intensity forecast
    could be required this afternoon.
    Only a slight adjustment was made
    to the 12-h track forecast position based on the more northward and
    eastward initial position.

    KEY MESSAGES:

    1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move
    onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's
    northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
    on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average
    forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm
    surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
    center.

    2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
    expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
    Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
    the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
    effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
    local officials.

    3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight within the Hurricane
    Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late
    Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and
    Alabama coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin
    later today and this evening in these areas and preparations
    should be rushed to completion.

    4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread
    minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just
    inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban
    flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
    likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the
    week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the
    Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash
    flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor
    river flooding across west-central Florida through today.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 14/1630Z 28.7N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
    12H 15/0000Z 28.8N 87.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
    24H 15/1200Z 29.2N 88.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
    36H 16/0000Z 29.8N 89.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
    48H 16/1200Z 30.8N 88.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
    60H 17/0000Z 31.8N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    72H 17/1200Z 32.6N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
    96H 18/1200Z 33.1N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Brown



  8. #8
    We've got a job to do. Darth_Pelican's Avatar
    Location
    New Orleans
    Post Count
    8,191
    NBA Team
    New Orleans Pelicans
    College
    LSU Tigers
    yeah it could be a cat 2 after all. Missing us to the east though.

  9. #9
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
    Location
    Prancelina, PDA
    Post Count
    24,546
    NBA Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    College
    North Texas Mean Green
    yeah it could be a cat 2 after all. Missing us to the east though.
    looks like it could stall long enough over water and become a cat 3, but yes the landfall is more toward gulfport/Mobile as opposed to a direct NOLA hit.

  10. #10
    NostraSpurMus phxspurfan's Avatar
    Post Count
    14,364
    NBA Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    College
    Arizona State Sun Devils
    Dud

  11. #11
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
    Location
    Prancelina, PDA
    Post Count
    24,546
    NBA Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    College
    North Texas Mean Green
    100 MPH Cat 2. Should be a Cat 3 landfall. Not a "Dud" tbh.

  12. #12
    ಥ﹏ಥ DAF86's Avatar
    Post Count
    44,652
    NBA Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Only thing this year is missing is a nice natural disaster, tbh.

  13. #13
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
    Location
    Prancelina, PDA
    Post Count
    24,546
    NBA Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    College
    North Texas Mean Green
    Only thing this year is missing is a nice natural disaster, tbh.
    well we had a Cat 4 hit the Gulf Coast, but a relatively unpopulated location.

    Sally is certainly a disappointment... why'd she weaken to Cat 1 over open water? Wtf.

  14. #14
    NostraSpurMus phxspurfan's Avatar
    Post Count
    14,364
    NBA Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    College
    Arizona State Sun Devils
    well we had a Cat 4 hit the Gulf Coast, but a relatively unpopulated location.

    Sally is certainly a disappointment... why'd she weaken to Cat 1 over open water? Wtf.
    The salt from your tears was injected into the eyewall causing weakening, duh. Simple meteor ology

  15. #15
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
    Location
    Prancelina, PDA
    Post Count
    24,546
    NBA Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    College
    North Texas Mean Green
    The salt from your tears was injected into the eyewall causing weakening, duh. Simple meteor ology
    so you're implying I would rather see a cat 3-4 strike a big coastal city and cause billions in damage? On the eave of the election when everyone knows I strongly support the in bent president? you've got to be kidding.

    Now if Obummer were president...

  16. #16
    NostraSpurMus phxspurfan's Avatar
    Post Count
    14,364
    NBA Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    College
    Arizona State Sun Devils
    so you're implying I would rather see a cat 3-4 strike a big coastal city and cause billions in damage? On the eave of the election when everyone knows I strongly support the in bent president? you've got to be kidding.

    Now if Obummer were president...
    Relax, it’s hitting in Pensacola for some rain. The next hurricanes may be much worse tbh

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •