View Poll Results: Which prospect is likeliest to be a star? (Select your favorite and post your top 3)

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  • Anthony Edwards

    5 16.13%
  • LaMelo Ball

    1 3.23%
  • James Wiseman

    2 6.45%
  • Obi Toppin

    5 16.13%
  • Deni Avdija

    8 25.81%
  • Onyeka Okongwu

    3 9.68%
  • Tyrese Halliburton

    5 16.13%
  • Isaac Okoro

    0 0%
  • Killian Hayes

    1 3.23%
  • Devin Vassell

    1 3.23%
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  1. #1
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    It is statistical fact that roughly only three players on average taken from the top 10 end up being stars. No ifs, or buts about it.

    Yet it's common for people to have the mindset that every player who is mocked in the top 10 are super desirable ignoring the fact I stated above.

    Here's an exercise:

    Name your three players from this poll who you think will end up being stars. If you want to name less, that's fine with me. Look at the 2014 draft, only one became a star (Joel Embiid).

    My three: James Wiseman, Deni Avdija, Tyrese Halliburton

    The 10 listed in the poll are from an aggregated mock draft pulled from different websites, so they are the most consistently mocked in the top 10.

    References:
    https://www.basketball-reference.com.../NBA_2011.html
    https://www.basketball-reference.com.../NBA_2012.html
    https://www.basketball-reference.com.../NBA_2013.html
    https://www.basketball-reference.com.../NBA_2014.html
    https://www.basketball-reference.com.../NBA_2015.html
    https://www.basketball-reference.com.../NBA_2016.html
    https://www.basketball-reference.com.../NBA_2017.html
    https://www.basketball-reference.com.../NBA_2018.html

  2. #2
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    Wiseman, Deni, and Obi ... tempted to have Edwards ahead of Obi but I'll stick with those 3..

  3. #3
    Veteran Sugus's Avatar
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    My vote's on Halliburton. Guy's game is a perfect fit for the modern NBA - if he gets some muscle and improves his dribbling a bit, I could see him getting into that Steph/Kyrie tier once he's at his peak. I'm much more confident on his chances of reaching s om than someone like Onyeka, for example, even though the latter might end up being the more talented player.

    My 3 would be Halliburton, Deni, and Edwards.

    How many days is it until the draft, now...?

  4. #4
    "The ball don't lie." dbestpro's Avatar
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    Saddiq Bey is tailor made for today's NBA and will become an allstar at some point in the future. The three means everything in today's NBA and he has that quick release that is going to make him stand out above the rest.

  5. #5
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    It is statistical fact that roughly only three players on average taken from the top 10 end up being stars. No ifs, or buts about it.

    Yet it's common for people to have the mindset that every player who is mocked in the top 10 are super desirable ignoring the fact I stated above.

    Here's an exercise:

    Name your three players from this poll who you think will end up being stars. If you want to name less, that's fine with me. Look at the 2014 draft, only one became a star (Joel Embiid).

    My three: James Wiseman, Deni Avdija, Tyrese Halliburton


    There's the crux of the whole thing. Picking a future star is more of a dart throw. But picking a very desirable player is a lot more doable. You picked a perfect draft as an example - 2014. Embiid has been an All-Star, and Jokic was overlooked by virtually everyone and went in the second round. Andrew Wiggins is pretty damned good, even if he hasn't made an AS Team yet. But look at the middle of the first round from that draft:

    Zach Lavine, TJ Warren, Nurkic. Rodney Hood was a damn fine player, without the injuries. Capela, Bogdanovic, Spencer Dinwiddie. Even CJ Wilcox has been a good contributor.

    The teams that got hurt in that draft are the ones who threw darts at players like Dante Exum and Noah Vonleh, hoping to catch a rising star. ("They'll be great, if only they can learn to....") I don't know who will turn out to be stars in this draft, but I think there are some damn fine players to be had. I know this much: for a league that supposedly doesn't have a place for big men, there are a load of big men in the first round of all the mock drafts.

    BTW - people love to look at college stats, but they rarely pay any attention to the college Strength Of Schedule. Wiseman played against an almost laughably easy list of opponents in his one year of college ball. (5.07 SOS) Okongwu played against a moderate schedule (7.22 SOS) Tyrese Haliburton played against a 10.07 SOS. If you think that playing in the Eastern Conference is an advantage in the NBA, playing against a 5.07 SOS in college makes all those numbers mean a lot less. I want the Spurs to get a PG from somewhere, but I'm not so sure that Tyrese Haliburton will be able to be a full-time PG. But I'm pretty confident that he'll be a good NBA player.

  6. #6
    Big Body look_at_g_shred's Avatar
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    Voted for Hayes

  7. #7
    Believe.
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    Saddiq Bey is tailor made for today's NBA and will become an allstar at some point in the future. The three means everything in today's NBA and he has that quick release that is going to make him stand out above the rest.
    This is who I want. I also believe other teams are high on him. I think he will be a Sean elliot type player with slightly less ball handling but more 3s.

  8. #8
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    Odds are someone breaks though obviously and I could definitely see some piling up the counting stats on bad teams that fool casuals, but I'm skeptical any will have a star impact. This could be '00 redux.

    There's the crux of the whole thing. Picking a future star is more of a dart throw. But picking a very desirable player is a lot more doable. You picked a perfect draft as an example - 2014. Embiid has been an All-Star, and Jokic was overlooked by virtually everyone and went in the second round. Andrew Wiggins is pretty damned good, even if he hasn't made an AS Team yet. But look at the middle of the first round from that draft:

    Zach Lavine, TJ Warren, Nurkic. Rodney Hood was a damn fine player, without the injuries. Capela, Bogdanovic, Spencer Dinwiddie. Even CJ Wilcox has been a good contributor.

    The teams that got hurt in that draft are the ones who threw darts at players like Dante Exum and Noah Vonleh, hoping to catch a rising star. ("They'll be great, if only they can learn to....") I don't know who will turn out to be stars in this draft, but I think there are some damn fine players to be had. I know this much: for a league that supposedly doesn't have a place for big men, there are a load of big men in the first round of all the mock drafts.

    BTW - people love to look at college stats, but they rarely pay any attention to the college Strength Of Schedule. Wiseman played against an almost laughably easy list of opponents in his one year of college ball. (5.07 SOS) Okongwu played against a moderate schedule (7.22 SOS) Tyrese Haliburton played against a 10.07 SOS. If you think that playing in the Eastern Conference is an advantage in the NBA, playing against a 5.07 SOS in college makes all those numbers mean a lot less. I want the Spurs to get a PG from somewhere, but I'm not so sure that Tyrese Haliburton will be able to be a full-time PG. But I'm pretty confident that he'll be a good NBA player.
    Based on his elite athleticism and the inefficient ppg he piled up with high usage as a Timberwolf? He's like a smaller, worse version of prime Gay, in that he doesn't positively impact winning. Can't shoot, defend, play make or rebound and is low motor.

    Random, weird reference considering Wilcox lasted 66 games over 3 seasons and has been out of the league that long.

  9. #9
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    There's the crux of the whole thing. Picking a future star is more of a dart throw. But picking a very desirable player is a lot more doable. You picked a perfect draft as an example - 2014. Embiid has been an All-Star, and Jokic was overlooked by virtually everyone and went in the second round. Andrew Wiggins is pretty damned good, even if he hasn't made an AS Team yet. But look at the middle of the first round from that draft:

    Zach Lavine, TJ Warren, Nurkic. Rodney Hood was a damn fine player, without the injuries. Capela, Bogdanovic, Spencer Dinwiddie. Even CJ Wilcox has been a good contributor.

    The teams that got hurt in that draft are the ones who threw darts at players like Dante Exum and Noah Vonleh, hoping to catch a rising star. ("They'll be great, if only they can learn to....") I don't know who will turn out to be stars in this draft, but I think there are some damn fine players to be had. I know this much: for a league that supposedly doesn't have a place for big men, there are a load of big men in the first round of all the mock drafts.

    BTW - people love to look at college stats, but they rarely pay any attention to the college Strength Of Schedule. Wiseman played against an almost laughably easy list of opponents in his one year of college ball. (5.07 SOS) Okongwu played against a moderate schedule (7.22 SOS) Tyrese Haliburton played against a 10.07 SOS. If you think that playing in the Eastern Conference is an advantage in the NBA, playing against a 5.07 SOS in college makes all those numbers mean a lot less. I want the Spurs to get a PG from somewhere, but I'm not so sure that Tyrese Haliburton will be able to be a full-time PG. But I'm pretty confident that he'll be a good NBA player.
    Yeah. The thread is a response to the mentality of the masses believing every one of these players is going to make it. The mindset should be to look at each player and look at why that player isn't going to make it because the odds are stacked (70%) against them.

    Regarding your SoS, not sure if Wiseman should be included... He only had three games.

    Also, I don't see Tyrese as being a full time PG for the Spurs as it doesn't look like that's where our offensive scheme is headed. We have a hydra offense with multiple ball handlers and we're going to take advantage of that.

    Bottom line: we need to be more critical of players being mocked high versus being spoonfed info that these players are all "going to be special".

  10. #10
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    Yeah. The thread is a response to the mentality of the masses believing every one of these players is going to make it. The mindset should be to look at each player and look at why that player isn't going to make it because the odds are stacked (70%) against them.

    Regarding your SoS, not sure if Wiseman should be included... He only had three games.

    Also, I don't see Tyrese as being a full time PG for the Spurs as it doesn't look like that's where our offensive scheme is headed. We have a hydra offense with multiple ball handlers and we're going to take advantage of that.

    Bottom line: we need to be more critical of players being mocked high versus being spoonfed info that these players are all "going to be special".
    Based on the 8 game sample size that was the "bubble"? That was because they were playing the youth and wanted to see them do more than just spot up. Either way, that'll change the moment they find a superstar/star, the same way the "beautiful game" gave way to ISO ball the moment S bag emerged as a superstar and they signed Aldridge, who was an established star.

  11. #11
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Based on the 8 game sample size that was the "bubble"? That was because they were playing the youth and wanted to see them do more than just spot up. Either way, that'll change the moment they find a superstar/star, the same way the "beautiful game" gave way to ISO ball the moment S bag emerged as a superstar and they signed Aldridge, who was an established star.
    Nah, I was thinking of the season before the bubble also. Ball handling was shared between DJ, White, and DeMar even when there was a clear alpha in DeMar (no matter how bad of a star he is). I agree, Spurs always adjust to their personnel. Sure, if there was a clear cut superstar there might be some adjustments. But I still don't think we will go full on rely on one player to hold ball handling duties 100% of his time on the court...mainly because of Pop's philosophy of preserving stars and not tiring out their main players. It makes sense in the long run.

    It allows the offense to be diversified and keeps the defense honest. You don't want to be predictable like the Rockets when Harden gets doubled and then nobody knows what to do so they just stand there at the corners.

    When Kawhi and Aldridge was here, we still had Parker share ball handling duties.
    Last edited by Dejounte; 09-22-2020 at 04:49 PM.

  12. #12
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    Odds are someone breaks though obviously and I could definitely see some piling up the counting stats on bad teams that fool casuals, but I'm skeptical any will have a star impact. This could be '00 redux.



    Based on his elite athleticism and the inefficient ppg he piled up with high usage as a Timberwolf? He's like a smaller, worse version of prime Gay, in that he doesn't positively impact winning. Can't shoot, defend, play make or rebound and is low motor.

    Random, weird reference considering Wilcox lasted 66 games over 3 seasons and has been out of the league that long.

    You're right... it was random. I was thinking about Saric, but I must have been looking at the draft list from '14 and just brain-blipped.

    Wiggins was a bad pick at #1. Nobody argues about that. I shouldn't have put him on the list, either, except that he's a 20 point a night guy in a really weak draft. There will be solid roster pieces in this draft. I wouldn't step on a limb to predict any of them being stars.
    Last edited by ZeusWillJudge; 09-22-2020 at 05:36 PM.

  13. #13
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    Yeah. The thread is a response to the mentality of the masses believing every one of these players is going to make it. The mindset should be to look at each player and look at why that player isn't going to make it because the odds are stacked (70%) against them.

    Regarding your SoS, not sure if Wiseman should be included... He only had three games.

    Also, I don't see Tyrese as being a full time PG for the Spurs as it doesn't look like that's where our offensive scheme is headed. We have a hydra offense with multiple ball handlers and we're going to take advantage of that.

    Bottom line: we need to be more critical of players being mocked high versus being spoonfed info that these players are all "going to be special".

    You're dead on with all that. Wiseman is really an unknown, but even the little anyone saw of him was against inferior compe ion.

    All that is why I keep talking about looking for a guy who is NBA ready and more likely to be a workman-like, steady contributor and not trying to find a needle in a haystack.

  14. #14
    Veteran r0drig0lac's Avatar
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    Edwards, Wiseman, Deni

  15. #15
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    Nah, I was thinking of the season before the bubble also. Ball handling was shared between DJ, White, and DeMar even when there was a clear alpha in DeMar (no matter how bad of a star he is). I agree, Spurs always adjust to their personnel. Sure, if there was a clear cut superstar there might be some adjustments. But I still don't think we will go full on rely on one player to hold ball handling duties 100% of his time on the court...mainly because of Pop's philosophy of preserving stars and not tiring out their main players. It makes sense in the long run.

    It allows the offense to be diversified and keeps the defense honest. You don't want to be predictable like the Rockets when Harden gets doubled and then nobody knows what to do so they just stand there at the corners.

    When Kawhi and Aldridge was here, we still had Parker share ball handling duties.
    Fair enough.

    Pop likely won't be coaching the next Spurs superstar/star (though he'll probably continue to advise/influence the organization, a la Auerbach) and that only flew when the biggest three aged and they had a team good enough to pull it off.



    You're right... it was random. I was thinking about Saric, but I must have been looking at the draft list from '14 and just brain-blipped.

    Wiggins was a bad pick at #1. Nobody argues about that. I shouldn't have put him on the list, either, except that he's a 20 point a night guy in a really weak draft. There will be solid roster pieces in this draft. I wouldn't step on a limb to predict any of them being stars.
    Primarily thanks to minutes/usage. He's one of the most inefficient scorers in the league and a net negative overall offensively.

  16. #16
    Believe. JuneJive's Avatar
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    All that is why I keep talking about looking for a guy who is NBA ready and more likely to be a workman-like, steady contributor and not trying to find a needle in a haystack.
    Wouldn't a high ceiling player be in line with the Spurs long term plans.

    We must take into account the loaded '21 draft where once again the Spurs could be in the lottery.

  17. #17
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    Edwards, Okoro , Obi

  18. #18
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    Wouldn't a high ceiling player be in line with the Spurs long term plans.

    We must take into account the loaded '21 draft where once again the Spurs could be in the lottery.

    I've said it here many times - if I got to choose, I would have the Spurs pick an NBA-ready, steady guy this year. Then spin off at least one of LMA/DDR, and give young guys lots of run next season, expecting to gain a good pick in next years much better draft. I would look for the high-ceiling guy with that pick. Add to that whatever asset/pick they got for LMA/DDR.

    As a fan, I could suffer through one more losing season, if I knew that it was part of a plan to get back to deep playoff runs.

  19. #19
    Believe. JuneJive's Avatar
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    I've said it here many times - if I got to choose, I would have the Spurs pick an NBA-ready, steady guy this year. Then spin off at least one of LMA/DDR, and give young guys lots of run next season, expecting to gain a good pick in next years much better draft. I would look for the high-ceiling guy with that pick. Add to that whatever asset/pick they got for LMA/DDR.

    As a fan, I could suffer through one more losing season, if I knew that it was part of a plan to get back to deep playoff runs.
    Why go with a high floor guy this yr. if you are planning on moving LMA and/or DeRozan?

    Wouldn't a double pick of a possible star be a wiser choice?
    Even if you whiff out on one, you still have the other.
    Better yet, both picks could pan out.

    As for the last part. I totally agree. Waiting a year or even two is acceptable, as long as it leads to contending.

  20. #20
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    Why go with a high floor guy this yr. if you are planning on moving LMA and/or DeRozan?

    Wouldn't a double pick of a possible star be a wiser choice?
    Even if you whiff out on one, you still have the other.
    Better yet, both picks could pan out.

    Because throwing darts at a weak draft is a good way to come up with nothing. Drafting someone like Bey would give them a solid piece as a building block for the team they'll become. If you're going to throw darts, throw them at a full board. Let's say they draft Tyrese Haliburton this year. That makes one of the other young 6'5" guards available for a trade. Haliburton would be on a rookie scale contract for 4 years.

    I don't mean this to sound like it's going to sound, but I'm looking two moves ahead and not just at this draft. When a franchise is in the shape this one is in, there is no such thing as an expendable draft pick. Get good, solid value out of this #11 pick. Do everything you can to clear cap space for a top-tier FA, and not for random mid-tier filler. And put yourself in shape to kill next year's draft, when there will almost certainly be some future stars.

    Everybody has an opinion - that's mine.

  21. #21
    Remember Cherokee Parks The Truth #6's Avatar
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    You're dead on with all that. Wiseman is really an unknown, but even the little anyone saw of him was against inferior compe ion.

    All that is why I keep talking about looking for a guy who is NBA ready and more likely to be a workman-like, steady contributor and not trying to find a needle in a haystack.
    I can see your logic. What players do you see fitting this mold? Nesmith? Bey?

  22. #22
    Believe. Ignazzz's Avatar
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    Edwards, Wiseman, Deni
    same from me. Classic

  23. #23
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    I can see your logic. What players do you see fitting this mold? Nesmith? Bey?

    The #11 pick depends a lot on who is going to be there - there's no sense making a dream draft of players that aren't realistic. I really want the Spurs to find a legit PG. A couple of months ago I thought Tyrese Haliburton and Killian Hayes would both be there when the Spurs picked. Now I have doubts that either one will. You can't always get what you want. So...

    I still think Saddiq Bey is NBA ready, and one of the safest picks outside of the top 3-4 players. I prefer him to Vassell, but I would settle for Vassell. In most drafts I would say that #11 is a little high for either one of those, but not in this draft.

    If the Spurs played it my way, they could come up with a late first or early second pick through the trade. I would take Jordan Nwora with that pick, without batting an eye.

    With the #41 pick I would take Grant Riller if he's still there, and Tre Jones if Riller is taken. That would let the Spurs start building a PG stable. If they got a PG in the trade, or somehow got Haliburton early, I would take Kaleb Wesson at #41.

    And finally, I would have a contract sitting in front of Kenyon Martin, Jr., either a 2-way or a min contract if there's roster space after the trade. And if his name isn't called, I would do everything I could to get him to sign it.


    So there's my dream realistic draft. Coming up with that extra pick is wishful thinking, but not at all out of the question. If the Spurs got three picks, and came up with one of those players at each level, I would be happy with this draft. Kenyon Martin Jr. as an undrafted free agent would be a of a bonus.

  24. #24
    Remember Cherokee Parks The Truth #6's Avatar
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    The #11 pick depends a lot on who is going to be there - there's no sense making a dream draft of players that aren't realistic. I really want the Spurs to find a legit PG. A couple of months ago I thought Tyrese Haliburton and Killian Hayes would both be there when the Spurs picked. Now I have doubts that either one will. You can't always get what you want. So...

    I still think Saddiq Bey is NBA ready, and one of the safest picks outside of the top 3-4 players. I prefer him to Vassell, but I would settle for Vassell. In most drafts I would say that #11 is a little high for either one of those, but not in this draft.

    If the Spurs played it my way, they could come up with a late first or early second pick through the trade. I would take Jordan Nwora with that pick, without batting an eye.

    With the #41 pick I would take Grant Riller if he's still there, and Tre Jones if Riller is taken. That would let the Spurs start building a PG stable. If they got a PG in the trade, or somehow got Haliburton early, I would take Kaleb Wesson at #41.

    And finally, I would have a contract sitting in front of Kenyon Martin, Jr., either a 2-way or a min contract if there's roster space after the trade. And if his name isn't called, I would do everything I could to get him to sign it.


    So there's my dream realistic draft. Coming up with that extra pick is wishful thinking, but not at all out of the question. If the Spurs got three picks, and came up with one of those players at each level, I would be happy with this draft. Kenyon Martin Jr. as an undrafted free agent would be a of a bonus.
    I like it. I don’t think trading up in this draft makes sense, but trading down, as you suggest, could offer some great bargains.

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