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  1. #1
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    I know it only just tonight got declared "Tropical Depression 26" by the NHC, but it's looking like an inevitable major US hit... (they always tend to undershoot the intensity forecast to not alarm people, just like with Laura...) currently looking like a direct NOLA hit/major US disaster in the coming days.



    Looks like Delta is headed straight for the .......delta.



    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/050234.shtml

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 05/1200Z 17.4N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 06/0000Z 18.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
    36H 06/1200Z 20.0N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
    48H 07/0000Z 22.2N 84.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
    60H 07/1200Z 24.1N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
    72H 08/0000Z 25.4N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
    96H 09/0000Z 27.2N 90.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
    120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 89.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi

  2. #2
    A neverending cycle Trainwreck2100's Avatar
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    how are we on Delta if this is the 26th, there's 26 letters in the alphabet

  3. #3
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Luck_The_Fakers
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    OP is a flaglot

  4. #4
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    Prancelina, PDA
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    North Texas Mean Green
    how are we on Delta if this is the 26th, there's 26 letters in the alphabet
    The NHC doesn't use "Q", "U", "X", "Y", "Z" human names because they're scarce and hard to find/replace if necessary. So there are 21 names and the remainings are Greek Alphabet names beginning with Alpha. This is NOT the first time we have used Greek names for the Atlantic hurricane season.

    There have now been 26 tropical depressions, all except one (TD 10) becoming a named tropical storm.

  5. #5
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    Officially TS Delta this morning.

  6. #6
    We've got a job to do. Darth_Pelican's Avatar
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    It's way too early to know where this storm is going to go or the intensity. October storms usually don't intensify into major hurricanes because of the cooler weather and Gulf temperature. Will keep an eye on it. I don't mind being on the direct projected path this early on, because the path almost always changes.

  7. #7
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    It's way too early to know where this storm is going to go or the intensity. October storms usually don't intensify into major hurricanes because of the cooler weather and Gulf temperature. Will keep an eye on it. I don't mind being on the direct projected path this early on, because the path almost always changes.
    Michael 2018, mid October. Intensified into a high-end Cat 4 in the North Gulf in mid October, with winds 155 mph (they actually upgraded it to 160 mph cat 5 the next spring, which I thought was silly, but whatever).

    With climate change you have to look into recent examples vs. long-term historical examples from the 1900s, say.

  8. #8
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    Darth_Pelican NOTE: Michael in October 2018, at the time of its first getting named, was only expected to obtain even less than Delta's forecast intensity right now:

    Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
    400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

    Deep convection has continued to develop over the eastern
    semicircle of the cyclone, and data from the reconnaissance
    aircraft indicate that the center has re-formed farther east,
    closer to the convection. The Air Force aircraft has measured peak
    925-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, and believable SFMR winds of
    40-45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been
    increased to 45 kt.

    Due to the center reformation, the initial motion estimate is a
    highly uncertain 020/3 kt. The overall forecast reasoning has not
    changed much since the previous advisory. Although there could be
    some additional eastward re-formation of the center, the tropical
    storm is forecast to begin moving northward between a ridge over the
    western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the west-central
    United States. A general northward motion at around 10 kt is then
    expected to continue during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,
    Michael should turn northeastward ahead of an approaching trough.
    The track guidance remains in overall agreement on this scenario,
    however, significant along-track (forward speed and timing)
    differences remain. The HWRF brings Michael onshore the northern
    Gulf coast within 72 hours, while the ECMWF is much slower and has
    Michael still offshore at day 4. The new NHC track has been shifted
    eastward primarily in the short term due to the more eastward
    initial position. The latter portion of the track forecast is again
    close to the consensus aids due to the large along- and cross-track
    guidance spread.

    Michael has strengthened today despite moderate westerly shear. The
    shear is forecast to gradually decrease over the next couple of days
    while the system moves over warm waters. This should allow for
    steady strengthening and most of the intensity models bring Michael
    to hurricane strength within the next couple of days. It should
    also be noted that the global models also significantly deepen the
    storm over the next 72 hours to pressures below 970 mb. The new NHC
    intensity forecast calls for Michael to become a hurricane in about
    36 hours when the storm reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
    Additional strengthening is indicated through 72 hours when the
    storm is forecast to be near the northern Gulf coast, and the NHC
    forecast is near the higher SHIPS and HWRF models.

    Key Messages:

    1. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
    over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
    of Mexico during the next couple of days.

    2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of
    western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical
    storm warnings are in effect.

    3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
    northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm
    surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In
    addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf
    Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of
    the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas
    should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice
    given by local officials.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 07/2100Z 19.2N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 08/0600Z 20.1N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
    24H 08/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
    36H 09/0600Z 23.2N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
    48H 09/1800Z 25.0N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
    72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 85.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
    96H 11/1800Z 33.7N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
    120H 12/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

  9. #9
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    Prancelina, PDA
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    NHC always slow plays major GOM storms.

  10. #10
    BLACK LIVES MATTER Play Boban's Avatar
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    Another storm created to advance the MSM fake global warming agenda imho

  11. #11
    NostraSpurMus phxspurfan's Avatar
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    Arizona State Sun Devils
    dud like this whole season

  12. #12
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    Prancelina, PDA
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    24,579
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    North Texas Mean Green
    dud like this whole season
    Ummmmmmm......

    Tropical Storm Delta Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive
    ...DELTA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE CARIBBEAN... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

  13. #13
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    Prancelina, PDA
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    2:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 5
    Location: 16.1°N 79.2°W
    Moving: W at 7 mph
    Min pressure: 998 mb
    Max sustained: 60 mph

  14. #14
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Turn west, die down, and run through San Antonio.
    My yard and the deer in the Leon Creek Trial system beg you.

  15. #15
    Erryday I'm Hustlin' Robz4000's Avatar
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    Turn west, die down, and run through San Antonio.
    My yard and the deer in the Leon Creek Trial system beg you.
    Same

  16. #16
    Veteran RD2191's Avatar
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    Predicted to hit as a CAT 3, rapidly intensifying.

  17. #17
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    Prancelina, PDA
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    24,579
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    North Texas Mean Green
    Predicted to hit as a CAT 3, rapidly intensifying.
    Let's go!!! #NOLAhit2020

  18. #18
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    Prancelina, PDA
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    North Texas Mean Green
    70 mph now, almost a Cat 1

    remember when Wilma in '05 was only supposed to be a weak cat 1? And that was Late October...we saw how that one turned out

  19. #19
    We've got a job to do. Darth_Pelican's Avatar
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    New Orleans
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    Predicted to hit as a CAT 3, rapidly intensifying.
    Predicted to become a cat 3 but to weaken to a cat 2 before landfall. Projected path shifted a little to the west because the storm has travelled due west most of the day. Lake Charles might start getting concerned that they get another one, but way too early to tell.

  20. #20
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    Prancelina, PDA
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    Predicted to become a cat 3 but to weaken to a cat 2 before landfall. Projected path shifted a little to the west because the storm has travelled due west most of the day. Lake Charles might start getting concerned that they get another one, but way too early to tell.
    It could just as easily move back east. It could also strengthen to a cat 4-5 then weaken to a 3 before landfall or weaken little or not at all (water isn't really cold enough to weaken it unless it goes VERY slow). Lots of variables. Too early to tell.

  21. #21
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    Prancelina, PDA
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    24,579
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    North Texas Mean Green
    & yes, I'm wishcasting for a major hit, since it seemed to help Obama in October '12 (yes, I know Sandy was a cat 1-2 at landfall, but similar concept)... major war or natural disaster on the eve of the election favors the in bent.

  22. #22
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    & yes, I'm wishcasting for a major hit, since it seemed to help Obama in October '12 (yes, I know Sandy was a cat 1-2 at landfall, but similar concept)... major war or natural disaster on the eve of the election favors the in bent.
    God damn, 215,000 dead isn't enough for you?

  23. #23
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    Prancelina, PDA
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    24,579
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    God damn, 215,000 dead isn't enough for you?
    If I became president... well that would be a week's worth in my book, i.e. of cleaning up the savage s in human form, a.k.a. the fake humans... the young generation of hipsters and rioters would get administratively *taken care of* first... Under my regime fake humans would be replaced with empty space, just like what is in their heads.

  24. #24
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    Name
    Andrew
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    Prancelina, PDA
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    24,579
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    North Texas Mean Green
    Officially a hurricane as per 8pm advisory!! 75 mph Cat 1 and rising

  25. #25
    NostraSpurMus phxspurfan's Avatar
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    Arizona State Sun Devils
    Officially a hurricane as per 8pm advisory!! 75 mph Cat 1 and rising

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