The purpose of this post is to focus on the shot tendencies of each player. Player tendencies are important because players hardly change their game unless there is a league wide shift in playing the game *cough* small ball *cough*. So from this data, we will be able to tell what the player will look like in the NBA.
FTA rate is what I look for in most prospects. I believe it is a major indicator of if the player is tough (on offense) or if they aren't. If their FTA rate is low, it tells me they avoid physical contact. I do not want any more soft players. We lost a lot of games because when our shooters shots don't go in, no one aside from Keldon knew how to be physical, draw fouls, and gain rhythm from free throws.
Below I've organized data on the relevant guards in the draft and compared them to each other.
Red = Least
Yellow = Middle ground
Green = Greatest
--- DISCLAIMER --- It is important to use the numbers in context. Some guards didn't get as many shot attempts as others, so simply looking at the color coding can mislead people. Look at all categories first before making assumptions.
TABLE 1: SORTED BY 3 POINT ATTEMPTS
Notes:
-We may be able to use and interpret the wings with highest AST% as guards who can only shoot those 3's at a standstill/ catch and shoot. Immanuel Quickley, Tyrese Halliburton (surprising), Tyrese Maxey, and Trent Forrest are those players who most of the time need playmakers in order for them to generate their 3’s.
-Best players who can shoot 3’s on their own: Grant Riller, Kira Lewis, Cole Anthony, Saben Lee, and Devon Dotson (However, Devon, Saben, and Grant didn’t shoot many 3’s). Now this could mean two things: These guys are either 3 point chuckers or they’re not. All you have to look at is their 3 pt FG%... For the volume that he shot, Kira Lewis is the stand out here.
TABLE 2: SORTED BY CLOSE 2 ATTEMPTS
Notes:
-From "% of Dunks Attempted over Total Close 2's Attempted" we can kind of see which guards have hops… I see that Saben Lee, Tyrese Halliburton and Isaiah Joe (important to note that Tyrese and Isaiah had very few close 2’s attempted overall) win this category. But we have to be careful and look at FTA rate in conjunction with this. Tyrese Halliburton falls under the “Obi category” where he has the athleticism and appears to avoid contact with the poor FTA rate. Saben Lee seems to be super-efficient near the rim for a guard.
-Most physical players: Anthony Cowan, Grant Riller, Skylar Mayes, and Saben Lee. These are guys you can probably count on to play hard on offense. None of that soft .
TABLE 3: SORTED BY FAR 2 POINT ATTEMPTS
Notes:
-Grant Riller looks like a pure scorer type judging from “Far 2’s ast%”. Tre Jones, Cole Anthony, Malachi Flynn do well here too.
I'm entirely convinced that you made up at least two names on that list.
Just pulling your leg, amazing work as always. Really intrigued by Kira, that shooting ability combined with Fox-level speed... I understand people saying this is a "weak draft" due to a lack of clear-cut #1 prospects, but I'd really like for the Spurs to get a second pick. So many interesting players with high ceilings.
Pretty torn on Kira.
Seemed to me that he is too small to switch. Undersized.
But, he's got that speed and his jumper looks good.
Amazing work.
His FG% across the board looks average but at least it's not poor to the point where it's doubtful he'll make a big jump. There's room for improvement and he's young.I'm entirely convinced that you made up at least two names on that list.
Just pulling your leg, amazing work as always. Really intrigued by Kira, that shooting ability combined with Fox-level speed... I understand people saying this is a "weak draft" due to a lack of clear-cut #1 prospects, but I'd really like for the Spurs to get a second pick. So many interesting players with high ceilings.
Yes, I've read negative things about his defense. That's why I'm not all in yet. Although in today's game, offense matters more than defense.
Kira Lewis Jr.
Shot Tendencies By The Numbers
Summary:
-Every 1 of 3 shots is a 3 point attempt.
-He's unassisted in almost half of those 3 point attempts, so he has some moves to get his shot up. As mentioned above, he's hitting them at an average rate compared to his peers.
-Is able to get to the rim and score with his middle of the ground "Close 2 Ast %". Obviously, this is due to his speed. Makes them at an average rate.
-Almost half of his shots were near the rim, so his preference is to drive for a layup.
-Alarmingly low FTA Rate. Avoids physical contact on offense. What will he do if the shots don't go in and players are being physical with him?
-Low "% dunk attempts over close 2's" tells me he doesn't have much hops. But as a guard, you're not really expected to have any.
No playmaking stats on these guards?
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...every-position
Look I know I am bias for my affection for Kira’s game and his potential. If you look at De’aaron Fox’s numbers, measurements from college etc. - they compare favourably to Kira’s game. Fox couldn’t shoot coming out of college though. Kira can. I genuinely believe he has star potential and would take him over any of the PGs listed - even Ball, who I feel will never shoot it consistently enough to take advantage of his full array of talents.
- 5. Kira Lewis Jr. (Alabama, PG, Sop re)
Elevator pitch: NBA teams should value Lewis' ability to create scoring chances with his speed and ability to break down defenses off the dribble. He also made significant improvements to his playmaking and shot-making to become a more well-rounded lead guard.
Analysis: The pandemic interrupted a potentially needle-moving run for Lewis, who was averaging 23.2 points and 6.7 assists on 46.3 percent from three over Alabama's final nine games.
His shooting and passing execution reached new levels in February and March, a key development for a guard whose iden y had been mostly built around his uptempo pace and attacking. Learning to slow down and play in the half court could go a long way for Lewis in the NBA.
His decision-making, pull-up game and finishing still aren't sharp. But the 19-year-old made substantial improvements to his skill set from his freshman season.
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