Not even sure why you're upset, tbh...
Based on what?And then the grand lecture built on a false premise.
You're taking the Florida stuff too personally, bro.
I was frankly trying to steer you in a direction that would be fruitful cos Florida just ain't gonna happen. But apparently you'll be damned if I dash those hopes.
Yes, the numbers were/are empirical in that I'm presenting them as true data at least roughly speaking. You need to lower the snoot level, bro.
Based on everything presented. But I think you mean for what purpose. Well, the discussion of other states could be more intriguing / steer you towards more realistic fruits. But if you want to just let me gloat about the the upcoming Florida win, then
Not really, the only verifiable numbers are early voting. The rest is one giant hunch.
minorities are much stronger for Trump this time around; and Florida has a lot of blacks and Hispanics. <-- opinion
Despite the media lies, I've seen nothing to state that seniors are drastically for Biden. <-- opinion
All and all I think 4-10 percent or more for Trump is looking like a strong possibility. <-- opinion
As well, the polling stations are being more fairly ran than in other places. Ballot box stuffing is less of a concern than other places. <-- opinion
I do think it would be extremely worrying for Trump if he can't win Florida. Pretty much means the race is over for him. I can see how Trump voters would be worried about that.Based on everything presented. But I think you mean for what purpose. Well, the discussion of other states could be more intriguing / steer you towards more realistic fruits. But if you want to just let me gloat about the the upcoming Florida win, then
Both numbers I gave are verifiable. I didn't just make them the up. Again, turn down the snoot ffs; you'll just be a more ameniable person in general if you stop playing empirical data cards even after people are giving you numbers. None of that means you have to trust my data. It's not like I'm sourcing it for you. Just chill on that sh** is what I'm saying though.
If you want to see it that way, I can't stop you.
But it's my outlook; and I don't see it that way.
I see strong indications that Trump will win Florida.
It's not even a state I really worry about at this point.
If it were merely a hunch, I wouldn't be in that boat.
That's exactly what it means. It's one giant "trust me, I know what I'm saying". Well, I disagree with your assessment. You might very well end up being right, I just don't think there's much to back up your contentions.
Your outlook is perfectly fine, even if I don't agree with it.
Again, we don't have a whole lot to work with here, so everybody more or less is trying to gauge things with what we know.
Again, this isn't personal. I frankly have had Florida on the Trump column for a while, but not 4-10 points, and not because of what you list.
I do think Miami-Dade won't come out in force, and that's pretty much the end of any Biden hopes.
I think your haste to pigeonhole outlooks that make you mad as (mere) opinion is telling.
I'm telling you what I'm observing. It doesn't mean I'm infallible. It just means this is what I'm processing.
You don't have counter arguments, so you're just trying to diminish my outlook. It's fine if you want to go that route.
But I think it's bordering on pedantic.
I think he'll win by over 27 electoral votes. But that is based on the scenario in which he wins Florida. Florida is very much a bell weather state, so I think it's unlikely he loses Florida and wins the EC.
Having an opinion is not a crime, or a slight or anything like that. I don't know why you think I'm somewhat downgrading your opinion by calling it as such.
We're simply arguing about different views. I think the Dems chances hinge much more on Biden being able to drive the vote in the populous areas, and I don't think it has that much to do with minorities, for example.
I also think a 10 point difference for Trump is daydreaming.
That's my opinion. It's based mostly on previous wins by Democrats in that state, and I think it clearly points to having a candidate that can drive the vote. I don't think Biden is that guy, but maybe I'm wrong.
Trust me / don't trust me; it's not my problem. I don't implicitly trust you; but I don't make a deal of it.
But I don't think you would generally just make up numbers either. Frankly, I don't see the point in arguing that way. One will always know any possible W is built on a boldfaced lie. Only sociopaths do that sh**. Neither of us are in that boat. Others who shall not be named are in that boat frankly.
Well, there's no real need to say this or that is opinion as if I don't know these basic definitions.
Sure, Dems can possibly win if they get huge voter turnout in theory. Though I'd still point out that's very optimistic. The party split is roughly 50/50 and you're seeing which side has excitement and which side doesn't. As Reck surprisingly noted correctly, it would hinge on Biden being able to win NPAs (No Party Affiliation) voters at a better clip than Trump does. In 2016, Trump received much more of those votes nationally than Hillary did. I don't know the tally for Florida in 2016 on that front.
I didn't say you were wrong or a liar either, tbh... that's why I don't get why you're worked up about it.
I'm cool. Stepping down from my pedestal.
I don't think Biden can drive turnout, but I can see Trump driving turnout for him, which is a different story altogether.Well, there's no real need to say this or that is opinion as if I don't know these basic definitions.
Sure, Dems can possibly win if they get huge voter turnout in theory. Though I'd still point out that's very optimistic. The party split is roughly 50/50 and you're seeing which side has excitement and which side doesn't. As Reck surprisingly noted correctly, it would hinge on Biden being able to win NPAs (No Party Affiliation) voters at a better clip than Trump does. In 2016, Trump received much more of those votes nationally than Hillary did. I don't know the tally for Florida in 2016 on that front.
That's probably the story on this election. We're having record turnout pretty much everywhere, the real question is if that measurably increased turnout is largely to vote for or against POTUS. I really can't answer that question objectively right now.
Saw it said somewhere that that's the vote. For or against Trump. "Nobody" is voting for Biden. Of course that's overstated because there are still a good number of hardcore Democrats. The overarching debate(s) regard their corruption and whether they've went too far left.
Dems have a 30% base that will vote for whoever the candidate is... much like the GOP has a 30% that will do the same. What's in the middle is what eventually define elections.
New party registrations are favoring Republicans. That's a bad development for a party (Democrats) that was already losing the independent vote. The problem is Democrats just didn't have anything great to offer. Yes, that's an opinion. Lite would tell you how great Pocohantas is. This cycle, the momentum is on the Republicans side. I would bet on it continuing through a second Trump term. After that, it's more likely to get dicey. Historically, Republicans are a do nothing party. They can make gains when the spotlight is on the in-power Democrats doing their adverse actions. They then wither when the ball is in their court.
I don't think Democrats are losing the independent voters at all, mostly because I don't think independent voters stay with a faction or the other. They're generally opportunistic voters, based on "what have you done for me lately".
If the mid-terms are any indication, interdependent voters had no problem whatsoever with Democrats. One would actually argue the opposite, they supported them.
As far as republican momentum, I would completely disagree. Here's a party, from Congress to the Executive, that pretty much abandoned any kind of help or assistance to the general population in a once in a lifetime health crisis.
On top of that, the POTUS is a weak candidate, largely unpopular throughout his 4 years. Frankly, I can't think of an easier situation for Democrats to win the Presidency.
But, if there's a party that can fumble this, it's definitely them.
because trumps election is all he has. Literally lives on disability, and has been scared into hating anything different.
Like most of the trumper sect, policy and ethics and truth and logic no longer matter. Trump represents a win to someone like derp and ducks and chris who have never experienced any type of real success. He gives them a sense of belonging to a group that they have never had, at least in their adult lives. ironically, there is nothing social or healthy about their allegiance, they live with their parents, and never actually interact with the outside world.
instead the win comes from the way they can feel like they are punishing the people that scare them.
If the exact same polling errors of 2016 occurred this year, Biden is at 335:
If the exact same polling errors of 2016 occurred this year, Biden is at 335:
You are right and it will seemingly take an incredible run of events for him to blow it unless state polling is wrong in several places.
If it is close this comes into play and will be some serious turmoil.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ay/ar-BB1azMRd
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