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  1. #326
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    Florida just not happening for you, Chumpettes. Would be surprised if Biden/Harris go play to ones of circles and / or honkers there again.


  2. #327
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  3. #328
    The Good Doctor Rummpd's Avatar
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    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

    National polls trending back to DT while battlegrounds mixed

  4. #329
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

    National polls trending back to DT while battlegrounds mixed
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

    538 disagrees and they actually adjust for bias and accuracy.

  5. #330
    The Good Doctor Rummpd's Avatar
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    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

    538 disagrees and they actually adjust for bias and accuracy.

    538 also was flat wrong last time just saying. All the polls have biases and issues so it is trend that counts and really only in the battlegrounds where the polls are less often and more likely to be off.

  6. #331
    A neverending cycle Trainwreck2100's Avatar
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    538 also was flat wrong last time just saying. All the polls have biases and issues so it is trend that counts and really only in the battlegrounds where the polls are less often and more likely to be off.
    They gave him one of the highest chances of winning in the nation, also the battlegrounds have been polled more and adjusted for exactly because of 2016

  7. #332
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    They gave him one of the highest chances of winning in the nation, also the battlegrounds have been polled more and adjusted for exactly because of 2016
    People learn from things. Who knew?

  8. #333
    The Good Doctor Rummpd's Avatar
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    Silver is a very sharp guy and his predictions based on an analytics and should usually be right but he has been criticized for how he messages his information and how he rates some polls. The surely odds favor him being right but he is not infallible.

  9. #334
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    I still don't get why people say Silver was "wrong" in 2016 for prediction Trump had a ~28% chance. There was horrible Dem turnout across the country, undecideds swung towards Trump in a one sided way we hadn't seen since 1980, and he was still 77k votes away from losing. Every unpredictable event leading up to the election favored Trump and he still squeaked out a narrow victory. IMO 538 had it right calling him an underdog with a decent (but not high) chance at winning.

  10. #335
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Silver is a very sharp guy and his predictions based on an analytics and should usually be right but he has been criticized for how he messages his information and how he rates some polls. The surely odds favor him being right but he is not infallible.
    "has been criticized" yeah you mean conservatives don't like him for writing off trafelgagel as a bull poll

    You're not fooling anybody with the honest broker act.

  11. #336
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  12. #337
    The Timeless One Leetonidas's Avatar
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    more copium keep posting those rando YT vids no one watches dude

  13. #338
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  14. #339
    The Good Doctor Rummpd's Avatar
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    "has been criticized" yeah you mean conservatives don't like him for writing off trafelgagel as a bull poll

    You're not fooling anybody with the honest broker act.

    Nobody is saying he is totally wrong as his methods put both sides in play so whatever happens he comes out of it with his spin on the result intact. Smart gig actually.

  15. #340
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  16. #341
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    That's serious COVID virtue signaling. Chumpettes be jealous on that one.

  17. #342
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    So friendly their way of saying hi is to point a gun at you? (Albeit a gun they dont even know how to use)

  18. #343
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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  19. #344
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Nobody is saying he is totally wrong as his methods put both sides in play so whatever happens he comes out of it with his spin on the result intact. Smart gig actually.
    He works with probabilities.

    He gave Trump one of the highest probabilities of winning the election 2016.
    I like the method of assigning probabilities as long as the other methods used in calculating them are solid.
    Nothing wrong with this at all.
    my bad if you were finding other big problems with his methods

    Based on his probabilities he would have said I bet on Clinton last year, and I lost a 50/50 bet.
    But Im putting up a larger bet on Biden this year,

    Im not going to take that bet at 50/50 against him, are you?
    Last edited by pgardn; 10-28-2020 at 09:45 PM.

  20. #345
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    So friendly their way of saying hi is to point a gun at you? (Albeit a gun they dont even know how to use)
    You're well on your way to becoming a full-fledged raving loon like other notable chumpettes here.

  21. #346
    Independent DMX7's Avatar
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    Wow, it’s looking really bad for Trump. This could be a historic blowout in favor of Biden.

  22. #347
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Wow, it’s looking really bad for Trump. This could be a historic blowout in favor of Biden.
    If the trend of voters under 30 holds, could be.

    So far, voters ages 18 to 29 have cast more than 6 million early votes, according to data from NBC News Decision Desk/Target Smart, a Democratic political data firm. Four years ago at the same time, the number was about 2 million.

    The increase is visible in states such as Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina — swing states that saw substantial early voting last time around.

    In each state, more than twice the number of young Americans have already voted in the election when compared with 2016.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...could-n1244923

  23. #348
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  24. #349
    Independent DMX7's Avatar
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    Young voters are angry and are not Trump supporters... but one thing to mention in Texas is that the early vote period was expanded so that explains at least a small part of the increase.

  25. #350
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Young voters are angry and are not Trump supporters... but one thing to mention in Texas is that the early vote period was expanded so that explains at least a small part of the increase.
    Demographic milestone: sometime next month, Millenial/Gen Z Americans of voting age will outnumber Boomers for the first time.

    (Mr. Smarty Pants level of veracity -- I overheard this somewhere)

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