Harris County shatters record for turnout on Day 1 of early voting

[Will Hunting]

Abbott clearly sucks at voter suppression.

He does. He let Harris County have way too much autonomy setting up early voting and then tried to undo a lot of it in court and/or with executive orders. The effective voter suppression governors like Brian Kemp rule with an iron fist.

Did that talking point go as you expected it to go?

[Winehole23]

Georgia purges the voter rolls more efficiently than Texas.

[Will Hunting]

Georgia purges the voter rolls more efficiently than Texas.

They also shut polling places down more efficiently and are just more creative, like sending voting equipment to precincts in Fulton and Dekolb County and “accidentally” forgetting to send the power cord you need to turn the equipment on.

[RandomGuy]

Georgia purges the voter rolls more efficiently than Texas.

That is pretty much how they stole the Georgia election.

[RandomGuy]

What observers have missed about Texas is that besides the non-voting Hispanics that allegedly would vote 2:1 Dem if they could be convinced to go to the polls, there’s also a lot of historically non-voting white trash that weren’t interested in voting for Bush, McCain, or Romney, but turn out like bonkers for Trump, even more so now than in 2016, because he’s one of them. There’s a visceral connection there.

Eyup. If you look at the rural counties % participation rates in early voting that backs this up.

Equally visceral is the revulsion of a lot of non-voting Hispanics to the present administration.

Will be fascinating to see how it turns out.

[RandomGuy]

Lol, I'm emotional.

I thought Hillary had it in a landslide.

Now, it looks like Joe does.

Who knows

Nope. No one really said that, because that isn't what the polls showed.

fail.

[RandomGuy]

I’m not all that sure evangelical beliefs have any depth to them. Their iden y is tied to a tribe, that tribe believes certain things, so they affirm them in order to be in that tribe, and that is that. But it’s all just labels they wear — there’s no thought put into any of it. Living out their faith consists of:
1) Go to Sunday sing-along pop concert
2) Listen to Sunday stand-up comedy/motivational speaker routine after the concert
3) Attend midweek book club meeting
4) Hate gays
5) Oppose abortion
6) Always vote Republican no matter what
I think for a lot of white evangelical Christians their “faith” is just part of being white. They follow the white people religion. It’s just a veneer they smear over their white nationalism to make it seem more respectable.

This.

[boutons_deux]

Eyup. If you look at the rural counties % participation rates in early voting that backs this up.

Equally visceral is the revulsion of a lot of non-voting Hispanics to the present administration.

Will be fascinating to see how it turns out.

i read today that Hispanic/Latino men are as averse to Dems as white men. A Macho Man orientation.

Even if Trash has killed Hispanics in higher %age than whites, looks like Hispanic men will vote Trash.

[RandomGuy]

As I said, I'm not anti mask.

Until it comes to climate science. Then you care all for the science.

[RandomGuy]

i read today that Hispanic/Latino men are as averse to Dems as white men. A Macho Man orientation.

Even if Trash has killed Hispanics in higher %age than whites, looks like Hispanic men will vote Trash.

It isn't quite equivalent, but definitely a more Trumpward tilt.

[Trainwreck2100]

Georgia purges the voter rolls more efficiently than Texas.

Well in Abbot's defense he hasn't had to do it in years

[baseline bum]

What observers have missed about Texas is that besides the non-voting Hispanics that allegedly would vote 2:1 Dem if they could be convinced to go to the polls, there’s also a lot of historically non-voting white trash that weren’t interested in voting for Bush, McCain, or Romney, but turn out like bonkers for Trump, even more so now than in 2016, because he’s one of them. There’s a visceral connection there.

Gotta love hearing complaints for years how coastal elites think the heartland salt of the earth are stupid only for them to fall in love with a New York conman who is pretty much the definition of the coastal elite they all hated.

[RandomGuy]

Miami-Dade reports EV tomorrow.

UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
· 1h
FLORIDA: VOTE-BY-MAIL (12PM UPDATE)

Dem: 1,557,361 (+556,562)
Rep: 1,000,799
NPA/Other: 696,388

Total: 3,254,548

*since these are frequent questions:
1) no, broward is not in
2) yes, miami dade from this morning is in (but that's yesterday's processing)

11:38 AM · Oct 22, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

[RandomGuy]

(not sure if tweet thign is working)

Mail in ballots = Dem advantage by 550k

In person early voting Trump party advantage by 110k.

If that holds, it will make for a clear winner.

[weebo]

i read today that Hispanic/Latino men are as averse to Dems as white men. A Macho Man orientation.

Even if Trash has killed Hispanics in higher %age than whites, looks like Hispanic men will vote Trash.

Again with this bull ....20-30% of latinos/a support trump ...drop this narrative that hispanic men carry with them some machismo orientation bull ...this isn't the 1950's anymore...the vast majority of latinos (men and women) despise trump...that ones that will vote for him have drank the kool aide (mostly cuban trash and euro looking latinos)...stop perpetuating this myth

[spurraider21]

Gotta love hearing complaints for years how coastal elites think the heartland salt of the earth are stupid only for them to fall in love with a New York conman who is pretty much the definition of the coastal elite they all hated.

one of the best descriptions i had heard is that Trump is the poor person's idea of what a rich person is

[baseline bum]

one of the best descriptions i had heard is that Trump is the poor person's idea of what a rich person is

No man, he's like a lottery winner though he got his winning ticket through inheritance. And like lottery winners often do, he blew it all. Only to get rescued by NBC where he got to play poor man's idea of rich man on TV.

[RandomGuy]

Abbott clearly sucks at voter suppression.

Uneducated , still not understanding that voter suppression happens.

If your party is so ing great why does it have to cheat to win?

[Reck]

(not sure if tweet thign is working)

Mail in ballots = Dem advantage by 550k

In person early voting Trump party advantage by 110k.

If that holds, it will make for a clear winner.

In favor of whom?

Since republicans are turning out more in early voting in person, they might be cannibalizing their own votes come election day.

[boutons_deux]

so where is TX now with dropoff boxes? one per county, or not?

Repugs nationwide know they are a minority, and must rig, cheat, steal to win office.

[Reck]

[Extra Stout]

It’s a TBD. Trump won both counties by a big margin in 2016, but Beto shrunk the margin a lot in 2018, picking up ~46.5% of the vote across both counties. Imo the record turnout were seeing is either uneducated white voters showing up in droves to vote for Trump or educated voters flipping to Biden. That’s why I’m predicting the winner of those counties wins Texas.

District-level polling suggests TX-26 (Denton) is red, but TX-03 (Collin) shockingly, is leaning blue. Also, TX-21 (Hill Country) is leaning blue.

[Will Hunting]

District-level polling suggests TX-26 (Denton) is red, but TX-03 (Collin) shockingly, is leaning blue. Also, TX-21 (Hill Country) is leaning blue.

Makes sense, isn't Collin County the more educated/non-white nationalist of the two?

I still think the only way Biden flips Texas is if he finds a way to flip Denton County, hence why it's a long shot.

[TSA]

This guy's tweet thread sums Florida up pretty well imo (click on it if you want cause I'm not going to lodge every tweet).

Basically, we can assume registered Republicans in Florida are going to show up with very high turnout, whether it be on or before election day, so the statistic that matters more than anything else with early voting in Florida is turnout among registered Democrats. Registered Dems had 74.4% turnout in 2016, and if they get ~80% total turnout they probably win the state assuming they win independent voters by the same margin they won by in the 2018 governor race.

Link to interactive map that is updated every 20 minutes. Hover over counties to see 2016 vs 2020 comparisons. Not looking good for Joe at all.

[RandomGuy]

District-level polling suggests TX-26 (Denton) is red, but TX-03 (Collin) shockingly, is leaning blue. Also, TX-21 (Hill Country) is leaning blue.

(raised eyebrows)

Chip Roy loses, that will be the canary in the coal-mine. Dude has the white part of san marcos, but also all the new big-ass apartment complexes full of students being built there, and the massive growth in New Braunfels and north San Antonio that are probably shifting the Demographics a lot. Hays county was one of the fastest growing counties in the country , percentage wise, for a few years, since the last re-districting.