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Sorry this is happening to you
Silver is a smart guy but made his name in sports and then some very obvious political predictions but always hedges his bets
Sorry this is happening to you
Subsidizing isn't just about funding. It's also an indication of support. Nothing philosophical about that. Pointing out the cheaper option doesn't really address the underlying thought process.
Don't confuse commentary with defense. No one needs to defend religious beliefs. Understanding their objections is better than pretending everyone but you is wrong
sure they do if those beliefs affect an entire society made up of many not necessarily having those beliefs. And you can understand their objections and still question the impact a certain religious belief is having on a society. We can walk and chew gum. This is just a ridiculously stupid argument. You again set up false parameters.
mrs. Crutchfield shows her self again.Needing to edit a post is
ocd and post master general; tough act but you go old lady
Sabato's Crystal Ball
https://centerforpolitics.org/crysta...-swing-states/To measure this tendency, we’ll introduce a concept called “elasticity” for counties. This concept measures the deviations in a county’s percentage-based vote margin across a set of elections, which we use as a proxy for the openness of a county’s voters to voting for candidates across the political spectrum, regardless of political affiliation.
It is important to note that what this metric measures is the vote-based electoral “bipartisanship” of counties across offices — i.e. “How much has this county’s vote varied across elections?” This is different from the concept of “swing counties.” You can imagine a county being fairly elastic as it oscillates between R+20 and R+50, while being reliably red — we see that a fair amount of voters are open to voting for the Democrat, even if the county appears to be solidly Republican in each of those hypothetical elections. In a closely-contested election, those margins can make all the difference.
In Florida, the Democrats would be gladdened to see that their support bases in Broward (E 11.2) and Miami-Dade (E 21.3) are very and moderately inelastic, respectively. This means that their support is locked in and that there is little room for them to fall in these areas. Obama won the state twice thanks to an incredibly strong turnout machine that brought base voters to the polls in droves, and Biden will seek to replicate that.
The Republicans, however, cannot feel as safe. The Florida Panhandle, a reliably Republican area, is one of the more elastic parts of this turnout-based state, and the trio of counties above Tampa Bay (Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus) are fairly elastic counties that are generally double-digit Republican strongholds — in fact, Hernando (E 46.3) and Citrus (E 41.1) are two of the five most elastic counties in Florida. If Biden is able to siphon away a significant amount of votes from these areas, holding the state would become an incredibly tall ask for Republicans.
Although a bluer-than-usual national environment may help them along the way, flipping North Carolina is a tougher task for Democrats and will rely on them turning out their voting base in the counties of Wake (E 29.7), Guilford (E 21.8), and berland (E 15.3), and continuing the swing of suburban voters in Wake County (one of the few populous areas with any elasticity for them to capitalize on).
Arizona falls in the middle of the spectrum of states we are analyzing — although it is nowhere near as elastic as Wisconsin, it is certainly more elastic than Florida.
Pinal (E 47.3) and Maricopa (E 46.9) are the two most interesting counties to examine. Traditionally Republican, the high elasticity of these counties would be a source of concern for several Republicans, as they can ill-afford to lose too many votes here if they wish to hang on to the state at the Senate and presidential levels. Maricopa, in particular, is home to Phoenix and its suburbs and cast more than 1.5 million votes in 2016. The county includes significant pockets of white college-educated voters, a group that Biden has been making gains with in polls.
The exceptionally high elasticity of Maricopa, when combined with the sheer volume of voters present, makes this a particularly appealing target county for Democrats, as investment here could flip an incredibly high amount of voters, and Kyrsten Sinema used this to great effect in her 2018 Senate victory over Martha McSally.
The early voting numbers by party registration are about as bad as it gets for Trump in Maricopa County.
Trump is in trouble.
Biden is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
https://news.yahoo.com/biden-solid-l...192851932.html
So that's why he's in there today doing a rally?
Go figure.
Biden is going to win Wisconsin by 10+% because of how bad the COVID outbreak is there. Trump holding a superspreader event when Wisconsin hospitals are at full capacity really isn't helping his popularity. The Republican state house probably loses its gerrymandered supermajority too.
I think his win in Michigan will be comfortable but not 10+% comfortable. Probably high single digits.
Last I checked Dems had a 100k+ advantage for votes cast in Maricopa County even though the county has sizeably more registered Rs than registered Ds.
Also even though Republicans have full legislative and executive control over AZ, the state has a Democratic secretary of state who's busting her ass to make sure ballots are counted on election night and that no ery occurs. Maricopa and Pima County also have Dem county recorders, so it's not going to be a state like PA where Trump will be able to stop ballots from counting.
I don't think it's impossible or even unlikely that both WI and MN flip opposite ways from 2016 based on what I saw. Tina Smith could be in trouble too, tbh.
I guess it makes sense that MN isn't flipping to Trump then.
MN is more likely to flip to Trump than Trump keeping WI, that's my point. MN will be tighter than most think and Shillary won there by the skin of her teeth (Trump was leading there with 99% precincts in up until the day after).
keep telling yourself that Edgelord_Messiah.
I'm dead serious. The challenger is very strong there and MN could flip. MI is one where I think Peters and Biden win but narrowly.
Silver's the one guy who warned all year that Trump had a great chance and that Clinton's blue firewall was extremely fragile while the rest of the media was acting like Trump had to win ~ten coinflips.
I know you're serious. MAGA s are usually serious when they say stupid .
I don't buy it. Lots of mail in ballots are going to never be counted since it's already a couple of days too late to do mail-in ballots thanks to Trump's crimes against the post office. I think if Biden wins Wisconsin it's going to be by the skin of his nuts.
I just don't think Trump is popular in WI anymore, driving thru there.
A WaPo/ABC poll released today has Biden up 17 points in Wisconsin, which jumped the 538 average in Wisconsin up to a 9 point lead. The only way Biden loses Wisconsin is if Trump gets courts to stop counting absentee ballots that have already been received, there won't be enough absentee ballots thrown out because they weren't received on time to swing the state.
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