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  1. #76
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

    Scroll down to the bottom. It's data released by each county, so not a polling a estimate. 750k is an actual tally.
    Thanks, nice

  2. #77
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    It's a few days old, but this analysis for Florida also shows Democrats are turning out more of their voters who missed 1 or more of the last 3 elections than Republicans are doing so far.

    When this was done the GOP has about 400k more super voters (voted in 4/4 generals) left than Democrats do, but Democrats currently have about ~330k more votes cast than Republicans have, and there are a lot of young voters who simply weren't old enough to vote in the last 4 elections.

    Gillum won independents by 10 points in 2018 and Trump/DeathSantis have only gotten more unpopular since then, so as long as registered Ds match registered Rs in votes cast in the state, I think Biden should win Florida.


  3. #78
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    Degradation from something, obviously.. unless you're referring to the décor.

    You gotta learn to comprehend what you read.

    trump has absolutely diminished the standing of office and America in the world. I get that you get love him because he allows you to be openly racist, and you get to own the libs.

    But that doesn’t mean he’s honorable in any way. He has lowered the bar from the very depths of the most corrupt and evil men that have held the office.

  4. #79
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    It's a few days old, but this analysis for Florida also shows Democrats are turning out more of their voters who missed 1 or more of the last 3 elections than Republicans are doing so far.

    When this was done the GOP has about 400k more super voters (voted in 4/4 generals) left than Democrats do, but Democrats currently have about ~330k more votes cast than Republicans have, and there are a lot of young voters who simply weren't old enough to vote in the last 4 elections.

    Gillum won independents by 10 points in 2018 and Trump/DeathSantis have only gotten more unpopular since then, so as long as registered Ds match registered Rs in votes cast in the state, I think Biden should win Florida.

    Ugh, if only all those young people showed up in the primaries too.

  5. #80
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Gross oversimplification. Reasons matter.
    Sure. And trump botched the covid response

  6. #81
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Trafalgar cutting off access to its cross tabs after Nate Silver eviscerates them


  7. #82
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    Trafalgar cutting off access to its cross tabs after Nate Silver eviscerates them

    So the one time tra gots are a bit more transparent with the methodology, they get on immediately for their insane polling methods.

  8. #83
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    Trafalgar cutting off access to its cross tabs after Nate Silver eviscerates them

    Lolool

    Covid

  9. #84
    Complete player hitmanyr2k's Avatar
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    no, lowest unemployment in history, pre-COVID.
    That's really nothing but a garbage talking point. The "left behinds" that Trump courted in 2016 weren't really any better off pre-Covid. Trump's trade war dragged on far too long with hardly any benefits and tariffs were taxing the out of American businesses causing the cost of their raw materials to rise. Rather than eat that extra cost businesses had the choice of shelving expansion projects, laying off workers, or passing that extra cost to consumers. This lead to a manufacturing recession and rust belt states were bleeding jobs all through 2019. I lost count how many times Trump and Pence came to PA with their "war on coal" and "Trump digs coal" slogans. 4 years later coal is still on a death spiral which is why I haven't heard Trump or Pence mention it once on the campaign trail. Same goes for steel workers. Trump's tariffs were designed to help their industry but they backfired and the manufacturing recession had a domino effect on the steel industry causing low demand and their prices dropped drastically. Farmers also got hit hard by the trade war. Trump tried to shut them up with billions in bailouts but that money was just a bandaid and all that money was doing is keeping their lights on at this point. Their markets and supply chains have been destroyed in tariff retaliation. I laughed so hard last week when Trump went to Iowa and went on a rant about his Nobel Peace prize nomination not getting any news coverage because of Iowa's floods and crop problems You could tell the people in the audience were like WTF. Trump and the RINOs also advertised 4-5% GDP growth with their tax cuts. Last year it was 2%. Trump and the "fiscal conservatives" cut government revenue on one hand and went on a spending spree on the other for 2% GDP

    The funny thing is if Trump had handled the Covid response like an adult he would have sailed to a 2nd term looking Presidential and on the perception from the uninformed that his smoke and mirrors economy was "the best ever". He botched it like he screws up everything else and now he's in a dogfight with Biden's corpse

  10. #85
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Why do you say joe is not a likable candidate?

    I’m actually curious. I hear that from other progressive types. So I’m curious what has led to that definition of him.

    personally, he’s just a politician. But his importance isn’t in his soaring rhetoric or ideas, because that’s not there. His importance is in stopping the further degradation of the office
    I think he would've been a good candidate 10 years ago (not great, good), when he wasn't so old, and he could articulate better.

    He always had a good way of connecting with people, but he also has never really been an inspiring politician. He's basically a center-right candidate.

    Plus he has too long a political career where you can ding him in a lot of areas he's been flip flopping on (the fact that this administration whiffed on that will go down as one of their biggest mistakes). And what to say about the gaffes.

    As we all knew, turnout is imperative for Democrats in this election. He's not energetic, he's not inspiring, nothing he says or does invites the more progressive side to go cast a vote for him, he's been sitting in his bunker for weeks and months on end. That doesn't drive turnout.

    He'll be the beneficiary of Trump's inep ude and acrimony, that's what's driving turnout on the left and possibly independents. By any measure, he's a fairly terrible candidate well past his prime.

  11. #86
    Still Hates Small Ball Spurminator's Avatar
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    I think he would've been a good candidate 10 years ago (not great, good), when he wasn't so old, and he could articulate better.

    He always had a good way of connecting with people, but he also has never really been an inspiring politician. He's basically a center-right candidate.

    Plus he has too long a political career where you can ding him in a lot of areas he's been flip flopping on (the fact that this administration whiffed on that will go down as one of their biggest mistakes). And what to say about the gaffes.

    As we all knew, turnout is imperative for Democrats in this election. He's not energetic, he's not inspiring, nothing he says or does invites the more progressive side to go cast a vote for him, he's been sitting in his bunker for weeks and months on end. That doesn't drive turnout.

    He'll be the beneficiary of Trump's inep ude and acrimony, that's what's driving turnout on the left and possibly independents. By any measure, he's a fairly terrible candidate well past his prime.
    For what it's worth, Gallup polled Biden's likeability at 66%, which is a higher score than any candidate has had in the past 30 years (and I haven't looked for scores before that time.)

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/111439/...andidates.aspx
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/321695/...mp-strong.aspx

  12. #87
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    For what it's worth, Gallup polled Biden's likeability at 66%, which is a higher score than any candidate has had in the past 30 years (and I haven't looked for scores before that time.)

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/111439/...andidates.aspx
    https://news.gallup.com/poll/321695/...mp-strong.aspx
    Maybe my perception is skewed or wrong. I certainly admit to that.

    That said, as I was saying with Obama, when you put somebody like Dennison next to them, you're obviously going to look amazing.

    Mussolini would probably look like an amazing leader next to orange man, tbh...

  13. #88
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    Maybe my perception is skewed or wrong. I certainly admit to that.

    That said, as I was saying with Obama, when you put somebody like Dennison next to them, you're obviously going to look amazing.

    Mussolini would probably look like an amazing leader next to orange man, tbh...
    i guess I just think of all the things you can criticize Joe for, and they’re definitely are flaws.

    his likability is not one of them. His biggest hook is his ability to relate to everyone. That, in its very essence speaks to humanity and why people from all walks of life like him.

  14. #89
    Veteran Isitjustme?'s Avatar
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    It's a few days old, but this analysis for Florida also shows Democrats are turning out more of their voters who missed 1 or more of the last 3 elections than Republicans are doing so far.

    When this was done the GOP has about 400k more super voters (voted in 4/4 generals) left than Democrats do, but Democrats currently have about ~330k more votes cast than Republicans have, and there are a lot of young voters who simply weren't old enough to vote in the last 4 elections.

    Gillum won independents by 10 points in 2018 and Trump/DeathSantis have only gotten more unpopular since then, so as long as registered Ds match registered Rs in votes cast in the state, I think Biden should win Florida.

    If he wins Florida on election night this will be over fast

  15. #90
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    If he wins Florida on election night this will be over fast
    Trump will still prime his death cult for more stochastic terrorism, or maybe even active terrorism.

  16. #91
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    It's a few days old, but this analysis for Florida also shows Democrats are turning out more of their voters who missed 1 or more of the last 3 elections than Republicans are doing so far.

    When this was done the GOP has about 400k more super voters (voted in 4/4 generals) left than Democrats do, but Democrats currently have about ~330k more votes cast than Republicans have, and there are a lot of young voters who simply weren't old enough to vote in the last 4 elections.

    Gillum won independents by 10 points in 2018 and Trump/DeathSantis have only gotten more unpopular since then, so as long as registered Ds match registered Rs in votes cast in the state, I think Biden should win Florida.

    It's hard to understand how the Republicans could have any chance in Florida after Scott / DeathSantis wrecked the unemployment system. but I still expect Florida to go Trump.

  17. #92
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    It's hard to understand how the Republicans could have any chance in Florida after Scott / DeathSantis wrecked the unemployment system. but I still expect Florida to go Trump.
    It’s easy to understand. Voter suppression is how.

    Unlike other sunbelt states like NC/GA where demographics have steadily shifted left, Florida also has a steady inflow of old s moving there who vote Republican.

  18. #93
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    i guess I just think of all the things you can criticize Joe for, and they’re definitely are flaws.

    his likability is not one of them. His biggest hook is his ability to relate to everyone. That, in its very essence speaks to humanity and why people from all walks of life like him.
    I don't deny he has a gift to connect with people, but his Congressional record and pretty much entire political career is littered with ting on the little guy, minorities and being a corporate , so if you fall for the 'relatable' act, it's on you.

    It's great that Dennison decided to go for his kid instead, and old Joe is probably thrilled, tbh. But the more progressive side of the party is completely right he's not going to do largely anything for them, and you just gotta hold your nose to get rid of this administration.

    There's already talks of him filling up cabinet positions with never-trumper republicans. He probably loves Dianne Feinstein.

    Like I said, he's fortunate he's running against a terrible and unpopular president, tbh

  19. #94
    Got Woke? DMC's Avatar
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    That's really nothing but a garbage talking point. The "left behinds" that Trump courted in 2016 weren't really any better off pre-Covid. Trump's trade war dragged on far too long with hardly any benefits and tariffs were taxing the out of American businesses causing the cost of their raw materials to rise. Rather than eat that extra cost businesses had the choice of shelving expansion projects, laying off workers, or passing that extra cost to consumers. This lead to a manufacturing recession and rust belt states were bleeding jobs all through 2019. I lost count how many times Trump and Pence came to PA with their "war on coal" and "Trump digs coal" slogans. 4 years later coal is still on a death spiral which is why I haven't heard Trump or Pence mention it once on the campaign trail. Same goes for steel workers. Trump's tariffs were designed to help their industry but they backfired and the manufacturing recession had a domino effect on the steel industry causing low demand and their prices dropped drastically. Farmers also got hit hard by the trade war. Trump tried to shut them up with billions in bailouts but that money was just a bandaid and all that money was doing is keeping their lights on at this point. Their markets and supply chains have been destroyed in tariff retaliation. I laughed so hard last week when Trump went to Iowa and went on a rant about his Nobel Peace prize nomination not getting any news coverage because of Iowa's floods and crop problems You could tell the people in the audience were like WTF. Trump and the RINOs also advertised 4-5% GDP growth with their tax cuts. Last year it was 2%. Trump and the "fiscal conservatives" cut government revenue on one hand and went on a spending spree on the other for 2% GDP

    The funny thing is if Trump had handled the Covid response like an adult he would have sailed to a 2nd term looking Presidential and on the perception from the uninformed that his smoke and mirrors economy was "the best ever". He botched it like he screws up everything else and now he's in a dogfight with Biden's corpse
    So high unemployment numbers mean something. Low unemployment numbers don't.

    Up till February 2020 the dems were trying to impeach Trump. Don't pretend it's all about COVID. That was just the out dems needed.

  20. #95
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    I don't deny he has a gift to connect with people, but his Congressional record and pretty much entire political career is littered with ting on the little guy, minorities and being a corporate , so if you fall for the 'relatable' act, it's on you.

    It's great that Dennison decided to go for his kid instead, and old Joe is probably thrilled, tbh. But the more progressive side of the party is completely right he's not going to do largely anything for them, and you just gotta hold your nose to get rid of this administration.

    There's already talks of him filling up cabinet positions with never-trumper republicans. He probably loves Dianne Feinstein.

    Like I said, he's fortunate he's running against a terrible and unpopular president, tbh
    The favorite to be his chief of staff is relatively progressive which I’m crossing my fingers is a sign of things to come. It’s also not just Bernie on the left like it was in 2009, it’s Bernie/Markey/Warren in the senate with a quickly growing amount of progressives in the house. Biden’s going to have more pressure from his left than Obama had.

  21. #96
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    The favorite to be his chief of staff is relatively progressive which I’m crossing my fingers is a sign of things to come. It’s also not just Bernie on the left like it was in 2009, it’s Bernie/Markey/Warren in the senate with a quickly growing amount of progressives in the house. Biden’s going to have more pressure from his left than Obama had.
    Let's hope Joe changed and he feels the heat. But that's sort of the point: doesn't look like anything is going to happen out of his own volition.

    I'm simply pointing out the flaws I see with him as a candidate. It's not like I'm bringing this up now, I've been saying the same thing for a while, and I think the DNC is playing with fire when they roll out candidates like him.

  22. #97
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    So high unemployment numbers mean something. Low unemployment numbers don't.

    Up till February 2020 the dems were trying to impeach Trump. Don't pretend it's all about COVID. That was just the out dems needed.
    Trump was impeached.

    The Senate Says we are red and that’s as far as it goes.
    People have difficulty understanding the importance of keeping our elections out of play for intelligence agencies of foreign countries. They get the f up on health care and the disastrous results of fingup on a very contagious virus. Eventually incompetence and lying become important.

  23. #98
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    I mean, look, anybody in here that voted or will vote for Joe tell me with a straight face you were energized to vote for him because he's the candidate vs you were energized to go kick orange orangutan out...

  24. #99
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Let's hope Joe changed and he feels the heat. But that's sort of the point: doesn't look like anything is going to happen out of his own volition.

    I'm simply pointing out the flaws I see with him as a candidate. It's not like I'm bringing this up now, I've been saying the same thing for a while, and I think the DNC is playing with fire when they roll out candidates like him.
    I could very well be wrong and he’ll go back to being the credit card companies’ favorite politician once he gets elected, he just seems to be in a mode where he cares about his legacy at this point more than his corporate sponsors. 4 years ago I voted for Shillary but had no doubt that she would be a corporate shill once she got into office. I have more optimism with Biden than I did with her, well see if it’s warranted.

  25. #100
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    I mean, look, anybody in here that voted or will vote for Joe tell me with a straight face you were energized to vote for him because he's the candidate vs you were energized to go kick orange orangutan out...
    Exhausted of the lying and the f ups.
    Peace out.

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