It’s not good they have Biden’s odds trending slightly down the last few days, but I stil laugh at the 2016 comparisons from MAGA s.
Want to preface that anyone who posts individual polls and handwaving at them claiming victory is an abject moron.
Similarly 538 had Clinton up two points and gave Trump a 35% chance to win in 2016. Hillary won the popular vote at a bit over 1% and Trump won the electoral college ie hitting his 35% chance. If you are too stupid or ignorant to understand what probabilities mean then you really shouldn't comment.
538 does not poll. They take all of the polls and adjust for actual bias and weight them based on precision. IOW if the aggregate of a pollster shows them 3 points in favor of one party over actual results they adjust the pollster to actual results. They give more weight to pollsters that are precise. IOW, They hit the same target consistently regardless of accurate.
A good example of this is Rasmussen. People note how they always bias towards GOP candidates and conclude their results should be thrown out. 538 does not. They adjust for the bias and grade them well because they have a consistent bias.
Anyhow. Their models include individual state polling and the way each state apportions their electors.
They give Biden an 86% chance to win and Trump a 13% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
They have Biden up 9.2 points up in national polling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/
Note that the standard error for polls is ~5%.
It’s not good they have Biden’s odds trending slightly down the last few days, but I stil laugh at the 2016 comparisons from MAGA s.
The congressional district level polling is even better for Biden/Dems than national/state polling suggests. If Democrats are really winning MI-03, if they’re tied in TX-10 or if they’re only down 5% in IA-04, this election will be a historic landslide.
Generally I like to filters their polls to A- and up... the noise just needs to go away. Most good polls also have a +-3% MoE.
Even giving POTUS the states where he's within the margin of error, his path to 270 is very complicated. Not impossible, but complicated.
They had trump closer to 30% on Election Day 2016 iirc
Not too significant in context
I still stand by my prediction that the pollsters overcorrected and skewed things in Trump’s favor this year while they didn’t fully account for demographic shifts in states like North Carolina.
Should be an interesting night
Yup in comparison, if Biden wins a place like Florida or NC in the MoE, it's over for Trump.
Biden polling keeps trending his way as of late in Texas. 538 give him 35% chance of winning at the moment.
People lie to pollsters. If I didn't hang up first, I know I would.
^So hardly anyone at all. Gotcha.
Sure and what makes you think that the lies favor one way over the other? It's kinda the voter fraud unicorn. If it does indeed exist then why is it assumed that only democrats would benefit from it?
Battle ground states are like 3-4 points
In marginal error
They like to change it at the end to make it seem like they weren't doing submission polling.
Nobody worries about this sh** any more besides deluded chumpettes.
You’re worried. It’s showing.
Dems: US has systematic racism
Also Dems: Nominate Biden
So who is ready for an ELE bet? Which one of you chuds will agree to stop posting for good if Trump loses?
Florida, Ohio, and Iowa are but Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are not.
Florida is especially crucial for Trump, as they count early and fast. Though I do think he's going to win that state.
Biden is up 2.4 points.
That's within the MoE... like I said, I'm giving anything within that gap to Trump...
Shut the up you pretentious got.
If you cannot have an adult conversation like the other parties in this thread why come in with juvenile insults. Your obesity getting to you?
I get that you don't like me. I don't really care. You are just another angry fatbody with a complete lack of self-awareness. A dime a dozen.
Edit: it seems my rebutting your arguments before you could make them got you salty. You feeling the abject moron for wanting to make them?
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