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  1. #1
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Want to preface that anyone who posts individual polls and handwaving at them claiming victory is an abject moron.

    Similarly 538 had Clinton up two points and gave Trump a 35% chance to win in 2016. Hillary won the popular vote at a bit over 1% and Trump won the electoral college ie hitting his 35% chance. If you are too stupid or ignorant to understand what probabilities mean then you really shouldn't comment.

    538 does not poll. They take all of the polls and adjust for actual bias and weight them based on precision. IOW if the aggregate of a pollster shows them 3 points in favor of one party over actual results they adjust the pollster to actual results. They give more weight to pollsters that are precise. IOW, They hit the same target consistently regardless of accurate.

    A good example of this is Rasmussen. People note how they always bias towards GOP candidates and conclude their results should be thrown out. 538 does not. They adjust for the bias and grade them well because they have a consistent bias.

    Anyhow. Their models include individual state polling and the way each state apportions their electors.

    They give Biden an 86% chance to win and Trump a 13% chance.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

    They have Biden up 9.2 points up in national polling

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/

    Note that the standard error for polls is ~5%.

  2. #2
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    It’s not good they have Biden’s odds trending slightly down the last few days, but I stil laugh at the 2016 comparisons from MAGA s.

  3. #3
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    The congressional district level polling is even better for Biden/Dems than national/state polling suggests. If Democrats are really winning MI-03, if they’re tied in TX-10 or if they’re only down 5% in IA-04, this election will be a historic landslide.

  4. #4
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Generally I like to filters their polls to A- and up... the noise just needs to go away. Most good polls also have a +-3% MoE.

    Even giving POTUS the states where he's within the margin of error, his path to 270 is very complicated. Not impossible, but complicated.

  5. #5
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    They had trump closer to 30% on Election Day 2016 iirc

  6. #6
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    It’s not good they have Biden’s odds trending slightly down the last few days, but I stil laugh at the 2016 comparisons from MAGA s.


    Not too significant in context

  7. #7
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    I still stand by my prediction that the pollsters overcorrected and skewed things in Trump’s favor this year while they didn’t fully account for demographic shifts in states like North Carolina.

  8. #8
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Should be an interesting night

  9. #9
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Generally I like to filters their polls to A- and up... the noise just needs to go away. Most good polls also have a +-3% MoE.

    Even giving POTUS the states where he's within the margin of error, his path to 270 is very complicated. Not impossible, but complicated.
    Yup in comparison, if Biden wins a place like Florida or NC in the MoE, it's over for Trump.

  10. #10
    Independent DMX7's Avatar
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    Biden polling keeps trending his way as of late in Texas. 538 give him 35% chance of winning at the moment.

  11. #11
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    People lie to pollsters. If I didn't hang up first, I know I would.

  12. #12
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    ^So hardly anyone at all. Gotcha.

  13. #13
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    People lie to pollsters. If I didn't hang up first, I know I would.
    Sure and what makes you think that the lies favor one way over the other? It's kinda the voter fraud unicorn. If it does indeed exist then why is it assumed that only democrats would benefit from it?

  14. #14
    bandwagoner fans suck ducks's Avatar
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    Battle ground states are like 3-4 points
    In marginal error

  15. #15
    6X ST MVP
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    They had trump closer to 30% on Election Day 2016 iirc
    They like to change it at the end to make it seem like they weren't doing submission polling.
    Nobody worries about this sh** any more besides deluded chumpettes.

  16. #16
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Good luck.

  17. #17
    Independent DMX7's Avatar
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    They like to change it at the end to make it seem like they weren't doing submission polling.
    Nobody worries about this sh** any more besides deluded chumpettes.
    You’re worried. It’s showing.

  18. #18
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Dems: US has systematic racism

    Also Dems: Nominate Biden

  19. #19
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    So who is ready for an ELE bet? Which one of you chuds will agree to stop posting for good if Trump loses?

  20. #20
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Battle ground states are like 3-4 points
    In marginal error
    Florida, Ohio, and Iowa are but Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are not.

  21. #21
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Yup in comparison, if Biden wins a place like Florida or NC in the MoE, it's over for Trump.
    Florida is especially crucial for Trump, as they count early and fast. Though I do think he's going to win that state.

  22. #22
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Florida is especially crucial for Trump, as they count early and fast. Though I do think he's going to win that state.
    Biden is up 2.4 points.

  23. #23
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Biden is up 2.4 points.
    That's within the MoE... like I said, I'm giving anything within that gap to Trump...

  24. #24
    Got Woke? DMC's Avatar
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    Want to preface that anyone who posts individual polls and handwaving at them claiming victory is an abject moron.

    Similarly 538 had Clinton up two points and gave Trump a 35% chance to win in 2016. Hillary won the popular vote at a bit over 1% and Trump won the electoral college ie hitting his 35% chance. If you are too stupid or ignorant to understand what probabilities mean then you really shouldn't comment.

    538 does not poll. They take all of the polls and adjust for actual bias and weight them based on precision. IOW if the aggregate of a pollster shows them 3 points in favor of one party over actual results they adjust the pollster to actual results. They give more weight to pollsters that are precise. IOW, They hit the same target consistently regardless of accurate.

    A good example of this is Rasmussen. People note how they always bias towards GOP candidates and conclude their results should be thrown out. 538 does not. They adjust for the bias and grade them well because they have a consistent bias.

    Anyhow. Their models include individual state polling and the way each state apportions their electors.

    They give Biden an 86% chance to win and Trump a 13% chance.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

    They have Biden up 9.2 points up in national polling

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/

    Note that the standard error for polls is ~5%.
    Shut the up you pretentious got.

  25. #25
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Shut the up you pretentious got.
    If you cannot have an adult conversation like the other parties in this thread why come in with juvenile insults. Your obesity getting to you?

    I get that you don't like me. I don't really care. You are just another angry fatbody with a complete lack of self-awareness. A dime a dozen.

    Edit: it seems my rebutting your arguments before you could make them got you salty. You feeling the abject moron for wanting to make them?

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