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  1. #76
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    Was definitely wrong about the Senate though. Can't believe how short Gideon came up, and I really thought Cunningham would pull that one out. Still holding out hope for the Georgia runoffs.

  2. #77
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    It was pretty obvious. All the numbers showed the missing votes were mail ins coming from Democrat strongholds. I never thought Florida was in play so that meant nothing to me by the way. Ohio made no difference in the bigger picture.

    Some places were always going to be close. I'm just surprised it was Wisconsin, NV (considering what COVID did in LV), etc. You can't get them all right.

    But it was obvious, imo. I have been celebrating since election night.
    It wasn't just Wisconsin, Biden badly underperformed polls in MI and OH too, thankfully only looks like he'll underperform PA by 3 points or so (I imagine he'll finish +2 to +3 in PA). Never expected to win OH but was quite scared WI and PA would be nail-biters, and WI absolutely was.

  3. #78
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    It wasn't just Wisconsin, Biden badly underperformed polls in MI and OH too, thankfully only looks like he'll underperform PA by 3 points or so (I imagine he'll finish +2 to +3 in PA). Never expected to win OH but was quite scared WI and PA would be nail-biters, and WI absolutely was.
    You keep citing polls and that's the problem. We need to learn our lesson about polls.

    I've really been working on a lot of assumptions that seem to have played out. One being that just about half of this country LOVES what Trump is selling. I was hoping for the blue wave too, but I was absolutely ready and waiting for disappointment.

  4. #79
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    Nate Silver needs to come up with a different method of grading polls. It makes no sense giving certain pollsters higher grades than others. How does he even determine that anyway?

    Not that it matters because going forward, ain't not a soul going to believe in polls anymore.
    Wonder how much of the polls being such this year was COVID and how much was the ridiculous number of robocalls people have to deal with today. Silver was fine in 2016 but his projections meant in 2020. Garbage in, garbage out with his 2020 forecast.

  5. #80
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    It wasn't just Wisconsin, Biden badly underperformed polls in MI and OH too, thankfully only looks like he'll underperform PA by 3 points or so (I imagine he'll finish +2 to +3 in PA). Never expected to win OH but was quite scared WI and PA would be nail-biters, and WI absolutely was.
    You're going based on polls. They were off worse than in 2016.

    I would have thought that Biden would have won by a bigger margin in Wisconsin though.

  6. #81
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    You're going based on polls. They were off worse than in 2016.

    I would have thought that Biden would have won by a bigger margin in Wisconsin though.
    They weren't too off in 2016, Trump winning then was well within the margin of error. It was media heads treating the states as independent coin flips and thinking Trump had to win 10 coin flips when really he only needed to win 2 (rust belt and Florida). They were definitely cluster s in 2020, but not in 2016.

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