Jakob Poeltl is finalizing a three-year, near $27M deal to return to San Antonio

[Dejounte]

I see you dropped the whole “did it matter?” sarcastic response Bc as a Spurs fan it was annoying af watching Tim get doubled only for Bowen, Turk, Horry, and first year Finley miss every open jumpshot and we lose 2 very winnable series/championships. The fact that Tim only won 4 in his prime is a travesty. We also should have 3peated.

And it’s not a cop out. I mentioned that the youngsters could evolve but for us to be successful next year, I believe Jakob is going to have to step it up offensively. It’s not some grand statement.

I didn't drop it. We're still on the same topic:

Bowen is comparable to Poetl
You brought up that the team with Bowen had HOFs
I said it's a cop out argument to mention that that team had HOFs when we don't know what our current players will become, so why mention it?

It's literally the same topic.

[The Truth #6]

This thread is confusing but I took the HOF comment not to be about our current players’ ceilings, but a statement that the the Big 3 could put up big scoring numbers—the HOF part is a by product of their statistical greatness. But I will probably regret jumping into this thread. Ha.

[Dejounte]

This thread is confusing but I took the HOF comment not to be about our current players’ ceilings, but a statement that the the Big 3 could put up big scoring numbers—the HOF part is a by product of their statistical greatness. But I will probably regret jumping into this thread. Ha.

Again,

Saying that the big 3 could put up big scoring numbers is moot when we don't know yet if our current players are capable of doing that (even though it's really starting to be convincing that they could).

[buttsR4rebounding]

Lol and we’ve come back full circle. I didn’t randomly choose games in my first post. I chose the games that he started. Like I said, I just want consistency. Not 19 one game and 2 the next and then 14 and then 4

That’s exactly what guys who average 8 to 10 points a game do. The average of the 4 games you cited is 9.75/game. Since he has been starting he is shooting 67% from the floor. What’s not to like?

[DAF86]

My first post literally said my name parameters but since you don’t know how to ing read I had to explain it in like 15 posts. In my first post I said I wanted consistency and you went off on this long ass weird tangent where I’m expecting 15 points a game from him. And at bringing up stats in an argument. I don’t like him being good one game offensively and then extremely ty the next game. Pretty clear stance. I never mentioned a point total until YOU brought it up randomly.

And then you randomly brought up Bruce Bowen when a) it was a different era. b) it was a completely different offense. And c) we had 3 hall of famers in their prime to offset his ty ass scoring. Also Avery ing Johnson and Johnny Moore are in the rafters. That doesn’t mean anymore when you dilute it like that. But if Bowen could score we wouldn’t have lost in 04 to LA where they triple teamed Tim and he kicked out to ty shooters and in 06 where Nelson took him out of the game by hacking him and once again he couldn’t shoot worth .

Two things are clear: 1) you want offensive consistency from Poeltl - 2) you don't ask him to score 15 ppg. You are fine with him scoring 8/10 ppg.

So I have one question for you (which I already made several times but you have yet to answer. Likely because you can't find one): which other 10 ppg role player you know that has "offensive consistency"? You can name any player from any era. You are asking Poeltl to do something that hasn't been done by any other player in history, that's what you need to understand.

[DAF86]

That’s exactly what guys who average 8 to 10 points a game do. The average of the 4 games you cited is 9.75/game. Since he has been starting he is shooting 67% from the floor. What’s not to like?

Exactly. This guy thinks that 10 ppg role players score 10 pts every game.

[KobesAchilles]

I didn't drop it. We're still on the same topic:

Bowen is comparable to Poetl
You brought up that the team with Bowen had HOFs
I said it's a cop out argument to mention that that team had HOFs when we don't know what our current players will become, so why mention it?




It's literally the same topic.

And Bowen's lack of offense hurt us in the playoffs. That's why I said you dropped it. You asked if it mattered and I gave you specific series we lost where it did. Bowen is also not comparable to Poetl bc Bowen guarded the othe rteam's best player. Poetl has never done that successfully. It also isn't a cop out to suggest that none of our players are as good as Tim Duncan. Bowen played with the best PF of all time, a top 5 player all time and probably the best big man defender of all time. Poetl plays with none of those and never will play with a player the same caliber as Tim.

Had Bowen been on any other team (say Miami) he would be out of the league. The Spurs saved his ass bc we had an all time great player. That's why it isn't fair to bring up Bowen and Poetl comps.

I think Poetl is going to have to pick up his scoring next year. We can live this year with his games where he is a nonfactor bc we have alot of offensive players. I don't see us re-signing any of them (and i think Demar will get an offer from us but turn it down). Next year, I don't see us having the same offensive players and he will need to step up his game for us to win.

[KobesAchilles]

Two things are clear: 1) you want offensive consistency from Poeltl - 2) you don't ask him to score 15 ppg. You are fine with him scoring 8/10 ppg.

So I have one question for you (which I already made several times but you have yet to answer. Likely because you can't find one): which other 10 ppg role player you know that has "offensive consistency"? You can name any player from any era. You are asking Poeltl to do something that hasn't been done by any other player in history, that's what you need to understand.

Then I guess I am And I guess that is what every role player. does I mean I would like him to score more of course but I don't think he is capable. I think realistically the best I could ask for him is 10. But next year a lot of our wins are going to come down to if he scores double digits. And that scares the out of me. It was like that ridiculous stat where we were like 20-1 when Bonner hit 2 threes in a game (I forgot the exact record). Poetl is going to be that next year. We will be like 15-7 when he scores in the double digits and about the reverse when he doesn't.

[KobesAchilles]

Exactly. This guy thinks that 10 ppg role players score 10 pts every game.

Tbh i thought there range was alot more 6-12 than 2-14.

[Dejounte]

And Bowen's lack of offense hurt us in the playoffs. That's why I said you dropped it. You asked if it mattered and I gave you specific series we lost where it did. Bowen is also not comparable to Poetl bc Bowen guarded the othe rteam's best player. Poetl has never done that successfully. It also isn't a cop out to suggest that none of our players are as good as Tim Duncan. Bowen played with the best PF of all time, a top 5 player all time and probably the best big man defender of all time. Poetl plays with none of those and never will play with a player the same caliber as Tim.

Had Bowen been on any other team (say Miami) he would be out of the league. The Spurs saved his ass bc we had an all time great player. That's why it isn't fair to bring up Bowen and Poetl comps.

I think Poetl is going to have to pick up his scoring next year. We can live this year with his games where he is a nonfactor bc we have alot of offensive players. I don't see us re-signing any of them (and i think Demar will get an offer from us but turn it down). Next year, I don't see us having the same offensive players and he will need to step up his game for us to win.

I typed this on my phone so bear with me

1) "Bowen's offense lack of offense hurt us in the playoffs" - Bowen's defense also helped us in the playoffs

2) "Bowen's not comparable to Poetl because he guarded the best player" - well duh, but you can argue Poetl's impact on defense is better than Bowen because he anchors it. Bowen is a shutdown defender and that's a great utility. Having a center be your ing wall is a better one. The stats back up Poetl's impact.

3) "No one compares to Timmy D" - this is exactly what I meant by cop out. All discussions don't need to end because lord and savior Timmy D trumps everbody. Instead, let's look at offense-deficient centers in the league and ask ourselves if they can succeed? The answer is yes, if you have capable scorers at each of the other four positions.

5) "we wont have the same players next season" - i dont know and neither do you. Conversations fall apart when we make assumptions in the future because there will always be some type of bias on estimating it. Like if you truly believed in your head that all the Spurs do is keep players like Bryn Forbes and do nothing...well, guess what? That didn't end up happening. Just an example. Or how about the other way around and say you believed the Spurs were going to for sure trade up because they did it once in their history... We don't know. No one knows. When we look to the future that way, we say like "the Rockets have a better future than the Spurs" and then reality hits us hard and hits the fan and Harden gets traded. My point is, it's better to assess the future based on patterns and repeated behavior while allowing the possibility of new behavior to occur. And in this case, it becomes too convoluted to say multiple assumptions (DeMar will turn us down, we're not re-signing our players, we won't have the same offensive players, etc.) that are based on many factors to happen that the discussion becomes dead on arrival.

[exstatic]

Exactly. This guy thinks that 10 ppg role players score 10 pts every game.

It’s like Danny Green being a 40% shooter from beyond the arc. He almost NEVER shoots 2-5 for a game, and in fact, probably the best description of his inconsistency would be to say that he alternates games of 4-5 with games of 0-5, netting a 40% rate. Low usage players are almost never on their averages.

[spurraider21]

You don't like Bowen as an example? Ok, name me any 10 ppg role player that puts around 10 pts consistently every night. It can be anyone in history. I'll be waiting.

yeah, i dont get it.

when the spurs won in 2003, David Robinson averaged 8.5 and 8, and bruce bowen averaged 7. both started

in 2005 nazr mohammed averaged 6 and 6. bowen averaged 8. both started

in 2007, same story with bowen and oberto not being very productive stat wise

in 2015... tiago splitter and danny green were not high scorers.

now, you could argue that in today's NBA, scoring figures are a lot higher and you aren't winning games with final scores of 77-73 anymore, and so you need more production. but frankly, if poodle can play the way he has in recent weeks, i dont see why that isnt sufficient

[Down Under]

I don't think Jakob's increased offensive production was a result of White feeding him necessarily. I think White being back with the team on the court in general and off the court in the locker room, has increased Poetl's confidence on offense. Maybe someone can pull up the stats, but I'm not so sure Poetl's scoring has been on assists by White.

IIRC, the White/Poeltl PnR combo over the past 2 seasons, produces more PPP than any other combo in the NBA.

[XDT76]

Poeltl is probably the eighth option on scoring after DDR, Murray, White, Gay, Mills, KJ, Lonnie and if he is expected to at least score 10pts every game, I wonder how high is the Spurs expected to score every night. In the last 10 games other than Houston, which he shot terribly, he is averaging at least 50% on his shots so its more like he takes what the defense gives him and since he is not a focus on offense and is not a ball handler it is to be expected that his number of attempts varies greatly every game.

[Elementis]

Poeltl is probably the eighth option on scoring after DDR, Murray, White, Gay, Mills, KJ, Lonnie and if he is expected to at least score 10pts every game, I wonder how high is the Spurs expected to score every night. In the last 10 games other than Houston, which he shot terribly, he is averaging at least 50% on his shots so its more like he takes what the defense gives him and since he is not a focus on offense and is not a ball handler it is to be expected that his number of attempts varies greatly every game.

I think this is exactly the point. he's a very efficient scorer (usually), in the sense that him shooting seldom wastes posessions. so how much he scores is a direct outcome of the gravity of the other scorers. he isn't going to get his points on his own. his offense is a by-product of the game flow more than his skills. those 8-10 points he can score with his skills if the others do their job. so what you actually demand is the others to assert their game consistently.
if the others are no threat, then Poeltl won't get his either really, unless he develops that infamous midrange jumper no one is honestly expecting..

but what you do get from him is consistent defense. i think the other players inconsistent defense is a far bigger factor than Poeltl's less consistent offense. look at the variations, and the spread in his points compared to what some others give up compared to their potential, then you see where the real problem is

[Dejounte]

IIRC, the White/Poeltl PnR combo over the past 2 seasons, produces more PPP than any other combo in the NBA.

Thanks. I'm not arguing whether White gives Poetl good looks. Just arguing that it doesn't really appear the case for the recent games where Poetl has increased his scoring. Would love to see the stat + link for that.

[Sugus]

Thanks. I'm not arguing whether White gives Poetl good looks. Just arguing that it doesn't really appear the case for the recent games where Poetl has increased his scoring. Would love to see the stat + link for that.

Ah, that could've been the case. I missed one or two of these last games so I didn't quite catch it all. I still think White absolutely raises Poeltl's scoring ceiling when they share the court though, I just don't know whether the last few games have been an example of it (I'd love to see some stats on this as well).

On a different note, what a show this thread became... Might have to stop bumping it

[TD 21]

Well context is important buddy. This is in regards to him being our starter for the future. And he would be getting more than 22 minutes a game. This is also when we lose Rudy Gay, LMA, Patty Mills, and potentially DDR. That’s a lot of scoring to lose at once and Jakob is going to have to score more in order to fit going forward. In a perfect world, Lonnie, Derrick, DJ, and KJ will all give us 15-20 a night. But what about the rest of the scoring? Jakob has to pick up some slack on that end.

I know, that's why I'm a stickler for providing it.

Due to a combination of relative lack of stamina, offensive limitations and foul prone nature, Poeltl will probably never average more than high 20s mpg.

That's not how it works. When "we" lose those players (this is the 21st ranked offense), a combination of younger players getting more minutes/usage and whoever is brought in to replace them, will sop up the vacated offensive opportunities.

[KobesAchilles]

I know, that's why I'm a stickler for providing it.

Due to a combination of relative lack of stamina, offensive limitations and foul prone nature, Poeltl will probably never average more than high 20s mpg.

That's not how it works. When "we" lose those players (this is the 21st ranked offense), a combination of younger players getting more minutes/usage and whoever is brought in to replace them, will sop up the vacated offensive opportunities.

That’s a lot of trust in PATFO that frankly we shouldn’t have. If we are the 21st offense, Idk what metric you are using, it can get worse

[TD 21]

That’s a lot of trust in PATFO that frankly we shouldn’t have. If we are the 21st offense, Idk what metric you are using, it can get worse

It has nothing to do with trust. It's inevitable that when they leave, good or bad, replacements will be brought in and combine with the youth to eat up the remaining minutes/usage.

It's not like they're literally going to be missing roughly 55 ppg or whatever and the offense is not exactly great to begin with.

[rankingtear]

Starting spot secure and 35 minutes for a "20 minute a game guy".

[buttsR4rebounding]

Since Poeltl became a starter the Spurs are #2 in the league in opponent fg % at 44.2%. For all the crap the front office gets it appears that the DJ contract and Poeltl contracts will be absolute great value for the Spurs. Now with Samanic’s hopeful signs it appears that this front office has been ing awesome the past 5 years.

[cjw]

If Poeltl learned to shoot FTs at a 60-65% clip and a little more conditioning to get to the high-20s of minutes played, he’d be worth twice as much per year on the open market. Right now, he’s leaving at least one point per game for the team at the line vs. an even below average shooter. Being a bad FT shooter impacts how people defend you - not worried about possibly committing fouls, so tougher to get shots off.

His fouls committed are down around 20% from last year, which is meaningful in staying on the floor.

[buttsR4rebounding]

If Poeltl learned to shoot FTs at a 60-65% clip and a little more conditioning to get to the high-20s of minutes played, he’d be worth twice as much per year on the open market. Right now, he’s leaving at least one point per game for the team at the line vs. an even below average shooter. Being a bad FT shooter impacts how people defend you - not worried about possibly committing fouls, so tougher to get shots off.

His fouls committed are down around 20% from last year, which is meaningful in staying on the floor.

It is actually more like .5 points per game he is leaving at the FT line. (Although I agree improvement here is needed.) Also he is shooting at a 65% clip as a starter (and 61% overall) so evidently he is handling the tougher shots you referred to rather well. He is a wash on offense less than a point difference, but is the highest net defender in the league with an 8 point difference between on and off the floor. Also, since he became a starter he is averaging 30.4 minutes per game. So, if I understand your analysis correctly Poeltl is 1 free throw every other game away from being worth $18 million plus per year. So at a minimum I guess you are agreeing that his contract is a great value as I opined.

[Dejounte]

In six years, we'll be discussing Wiseman vs Poeltl. A discussion we never thought we would be having because nobody thought Poeltl would be as good as he is and Wiseman probably would never be as great on defense as Poeltl.