A SpursTalk Discussion: The Myth of Standing Pat

[Dejounte]

You hate it. I hate it. We all hate it. But we all can't close our eyes and pretend it's not real. No, not the bogeyman. He's real. I'm talking about the possibility of the Spurs "standing pat" once again for the 2021 offseason. The Spurs really could keep all their current players like DeMar, Rudy, Mills, and so forth.

However, let's untangle that possibility and understand what really happens when we "stand pat"...

Let's take a step back and pretend it's the 2020 offseason where:

1) We did NOT trade away Aldridge for Wiseman and Wiggins. I know, bummer.
2) We did NOT sell high on DeMar DeRozan being an expiring contract and a solid border-line all-star
3) We did NOT trade away our "valuable" vets such as: Mills & Gay
4) We DO let Forbes and Beli go

What a terrible offseason, right?

Before we proceed any further, let's look at the distribution of minutes during the 2019-2020 season:

1. DeMar - 30 MPG
2. LMA - 33 MPG
3. DJ - 32 MPG
4. Forbes - 25 MPG
5. White - 25 MPG
6. Patty - 23 MPG
7. Gay - 22 MPG
8. Lyles - 20 MPG
9. Jakob - 18 MPG
10. Lonnie - 16 MPG
11. Beli - 15 MPG

Now, let's re-write history for the 2020 offseason and say that these players were available for the Spurs:

Player A - Forward who plays with energy and still has upside due to age
Player B - Wing who plays decent defense and can shoot 3's, still has upside due to age
Player C - Young guard with great athleticism whose potential still needs to be tapped into

WHAT IF... the three players I listed above could be attainable by the Spurs through free agency or by trade?

WHAT IF... these three players would come in, get minutes right away, and lower LaMarcus and Trey Lyles' minutes?

WHAT IF... at least two of these three players establish themselves as key rotational players for the future?

Wow. The Spurs would have done a fantastic job during that off-season if they were able to get these three players. We'd be set for the future, am I right?

Given these three conditions, let's re-arrange the minute distribution for the 2020-2021 campaign to accommodate for these three new players we attained via trade or free agency:

1. DeMar - 33 MPG
2. DJ - 31 MPG
3. Player A - 30 MPG
4. Player C - 27 MPG
5. LMA - 27 MPG
6. Mills - 26 MPG
7. White - 27 MPG
8. Gay - 22 MPG
9. Jakob - 21 MPG
10. Player B - 18 MPG
11. Lyles - 12 MPG























Catching on yet?

Player A was Keldon Johnson.
Player B was Devin Vassell.
Player C was Lonnie Walker.

So maybe "standing pat" doesn't mean everything will entirely be the same.

So maybe "standing pat" doesn't mean the same players will get the same amount of minutes, and that we'll play the same exact way.

Challenge your mind. Take the red pill. Maybe "standing pat" doesn't mean what you think it is and it doesn't mean that the Spurs will stay stagnant.



Like I said in another thread,

Let's assume the "worst case" scenario for the 2021 offseason and that we stand pat and retain most of our current players with our cap space.

What if Luka Samanic is like our Player A from the scenario above and takes up a lot of minutes next season?
What if Devin Vassell is like our Player C from the scenario above and sees a major increase in minutes next season?
What if DJ works hard this offseason, continues his current trajectory, and becomes a major player next season?
What if Lonnie has a DJ-type rise next season?

Are these all not changes we would like? Or do the names have to be different in order for it to feel like an actual change?

[KobesAchilles]

You hate it. I hate it. We all hate it. But we all can't close our eyes and pretend it's not real. No, not the bogeyman. He's real. I'm talking about the possibility of the Spurs "standing pat" once again for the 2021 offseason. The Spurs really could keep all their current players like DeMar, Rudy, Mills, and so forth.

However, let's untangle that possibility and understand what really happens when we "stand pat"...

Let's take a step back and pretend it's the 2020 offseason where:

1) We did NOT trade away Aldridge for Wiseman and Wiggins. I know, bummer.
2) We did NOT sell high on DeMar DeRozan being an expiring contract and a solid border-line all-star
3) We did NOT trade away our "valuable" vets such as: Mills & Gay
4) We DO let Forbes and Beli go

What a terrible offseason, right?

Before we proceed any further, let's look at the distribution of minutes during the 2019-2020 season:

1. DeMar - 30 MPG
2. LMA - 33 MPG
3. DJ - 32 MPG
4. Forbes - 25 MPG
5. White - 25 MPG
6. Patty - 23 MPG
7. Gay - 22 MPG
8. Lyles - 20 MPG
9. Jakob - 18 MPG
10. Lonnie - 16 MPG
11. Beli - 15 MPG

Now, let's re-write history for the 2020 offseason and say that these players were available for the Spurs:

Player A - Forward who plays with energy and still has upside due to age
Player B - Wing who plays decent defense and can play with 3's, still has upside due to age
Player C - Young guard with great athleticism whose potential still needs to be tapped into

WHAT IF... the three players I listed above could be attainable by the Spurs through free agency or by trade?

WHAT IF... these three players would come in, get minutes right away, and lower LaMarcus and Trey Lyles' minutes?

WHAT IF... at least two of these three players establish themselves as key rotational players for the future?

Wow. The Spurs would have done a fantastic job during that off-season if they were able to get these three players. We'd be set for the future, am I right?

Given these three conditions, let's re-arrange the minute distribution for the 2020-2021 campaign to accommodate for these three new players we attained via trade or free agency:

1. DeMar - 33 MPG
2. DJ - 31 MPG
3. Player A - 30 MPG
4. Player C - 27 MPG
5. LMA - 27 MPG
6. Mills - 26 MPG
7. White - 27 MPG
8. Gay - 22 MPG
9. Jakob - 21 MPG
10. Player B - 18 MPG
11. Lyles - 12 MPG

Catching on yet?

Player A was Keldon Johnson.
Player B was Devin Vassell.
Player C was Lonnie Walker.

So maybe "standing pat" doesn't mean everything will entirely be the same.

So maybe "standing pat" doesn't mean the same players will get the same amount of minutes, and that we'll play the same exact way.

Challenge your mind. Take the red pill. Maybe "standing pat" doesn't mean what you think it is and it doesn't mean that the Spurs will stay stagnant.



Like I said in another thread,

Let's assume the "worst case" scenario for the 2021 offseason and that we stand pat and retain most of our current players with our cap space.

What if Luka Samanic is like our Player A from the scenario above and takes up a lot of minutes next season?
What if Devin Vassell is like our Player C from the scenario above and sees a major increase in minutes next season?
What if DJ works hard this offseason, continues his current trajectory, and becomes a major player next season?
What if Lonnie has a DJ-type rise next season?

Are these all not changes we would like? Or do the names have to be different in order for it to feel like an actual change?

Aren't we just dumping them for a pick though? Isn't it better to get a pick for a player who is walking out the door anyway? In your post you said that KJ was player A. Well how did we get KJ? By having an extra pick. If you could get a first for any of these players, you gotta do it. If you get nothing from 2 all stars leaving our team, then you probably did a bad job.

[Dejounte]

Aren't we just dumping them for a pick though? Isn't it better to get a pick for a player who is walking out the door anyway? In your post you said that KJ was player A. Well how did we get KJ? By having an extra pick. If you could get a first for any of these players, you gotta do it. If you get nothing from 2 all stars leaving our team, then you probably did a bad job.

You're taking things too literal, my friend. I'm tackling the idea that people think "standing pat" at its core involves NO changes (like distribution of minutes, no positive development for young players, etc.) the following season. Of course I would be fine if we can get additional value from our current players via trade. I would not be against that idea. We're strictly speaking of a hypothetical situation where the Spurs "do nothing" like they usually do. "Do nothing" in this context means re-signing DeMar, Mills, Gay, maybe even LMA too, signing our 2021 draft picks, and doing nothing else.

[Dex]

Good post, and a rare showing of optimism around here. I'm sure some posters will come in here calling it revisionist history, but they will also be the same ones ignoring some key facts that led to the 2020 offseason being what it was.

LaMarcus is 35, was coming off surgery and hadn't played in like 8 months. I never bought the idea that Golden State was going to sacrifice a #2 pick for a washed-up center even if Klay had stayed healthy.

Meanwhile, DeMar played well in the bubble and did a good job of meshing with the Spurs young players, notably DJ, KJ, and Lonnie. The Spurs had incentive to see if that growth could be carried over into the next season.

I also hate to say it, but DeMar still has the reputation of being a net negative player (even though he is having his most efficient season this year), so the return on him probably won't be nearly as high as some people want to pretend.

If anybody thinks the Spurs are going to move Mills for peanuts, they haven't been paying attention. Not only has Mills been one of our most productive players, but there is the obvious "culture" factor. Trading Mills would signal the Spurs going into tank mode, and the team has shown they are not prepared to do that.

With all that in mind, the Spurs have actually managed to grow and develop internally without the need to make a splash in the free agent or trade markets. Their sights have been set on the 2021 offseason for years, but with that talent pool drying up, I would not at all be surprised to see the Spurs hold their cards. I do believe that Aldridge will be gone after this season (probably by leaving in free agency) and would not at all be surprised if San Antonio decides DeRozan is the best use of their money in the summer.

[mo7888]

If Luka developes and we play him next year instead of signing a FA and we let the vets walk we should have plenty of space to absorb bad contracts for future picks. That's not a bad outcome either.

Murray-Tre-Spoon
White-Lonnie-bad contract absorbed
KJ-Vassell-bad contract absorbed
Luka-Lyles/Wagner
Poeltl-Eubanks
+a couple future picks to go along with our own

(Not directly related to revisionist history but im playing the 'standing pat' with our young guys forward.

[FutureMan]

I see no reason for the Spurs not to keep DeRozan unless there is someone better. At this point, no player on this team is close.

The odd man out is Aldridge and if he is replaced by a young FA big who can hit threes the team is good for another playoff run and development year. 2021-22 should be the last year of what I call a “background rebuild”.

[RD2191]

[Dejounte]

[John B]

It's a cliche. The Spurs is a small market. It's a miniscule chance that a FA "Star" would end up in San Antonio, and that's not about to change instantly tomorrow.

John Collins is not about to walk in our door if he could help it. And even if they did, more likely they leave the soonest they could. It hurts, but it's the reality.

The PATFO has done remarkable job developing players from the G-League, and finding "over themselves" veterans to plug in.

So "standing pat" doesn't mean doing nothing. It's making the best of the situation.

Again Spurs did a great job finding Keldon, Vassell and hopefully Luka to replace our "veterans."

I will expect they sign Demar the max, otherwise he leaves for a greener pasture. He seems to enjoy playing and mentoring the young guns.

Mills and Gay coming back and hopefully getting pay cuts. And just letting Aldridge walk.

If for any miracle from basketball god they convince John Collins to take what's left, then great.

But "standing pat" just means making the most of the situation.

[Mugen]

[spurs1990]

So shines a good post in a weary World

If the scenario you point out comes to light, I really like the potential of Samanic and Vassell for 2022. However vets will need to be unloaded to get them on the court (LS) and up their mins played (DV).

The big decision is DeRozan. Nothing in 25 games has convinced me he's worth re-upping as a near-Max player. To do so means he's your anchor for the next term. With his inflexible unwillingness to shoot more 3's, it's a huge flaw in someone who's the offensive go-to guy, much less one whose positional peers all fling it routinely. He's eliminating even a threat to take that 3 to the defense's advantage, don't you think.

Plus I don't like the idea of DeRozan being the face of the team for another 3-4 years. This is based on the spoiled nature of we Spurs fans who have had since 1990 Robinson, Duncan, Manu, Parker, and LA/Leonard as the main weapons.

Maybe we can't get better than DeRozan for 2022, but it's not a bad idea to sell and bide for another gem in FA, or develop internally. I really like Lavine in Chicago. He'd be a guy I'd chase to replace DeRozan. I'd accept DeRozan as a secondary good player, but not the franchise.

[Joseph Kony]

so basically, despite having virtually an identical roster, Spurs didn't stand pat because other players are getting minutes. Hmm, ok. I think everyone right now's "standing pat" are continuing with LMA/DD as our top two options, not giving anyone else minutes or making minor changes to the depth charts.

So regardless of who gets mins next year, if LMA and DD return, everyone will basically see that as standing pat, which i would agree with tbh

[Dejounte]

so basically, despite having virtually an identical roster, Spurs didn't stand pat because other players are getting minutes. Hmm, ok. I think everyone right now's "standing pat" are continuing with LMA/DD as our top two options, not giving anyone else minutes or making minor changes to the depth charts.

So regardless of who gets mins next year, if LMA and DD return, everyone will basically see that as standing pat, which i would agree with tbh

LMA hasn't been a top two option since the beginning of the season.

"not giving anyone else minutes or making minor changes to the depth charts."

I have no clue what you are saying here. There's been major changes to the depth chart and several new players have been given significant minutes.

"LMA and DD return, everyone will basically see that as standing pat, which i would agree with tbh"

Again, that's what it looks like on the surface. But if you pay attention, there's been significant changes.

[Dejounte]

So shines a good post in a weary World

If the scenario you point out comes to light, I really like the potential of Samanic and Vassell for 2022. However vets will need to be unloaded to get them on the court (LS) and up their mins played (DV).

The big decision is DeRozan. Nothing in 25 games has convinced me he's worth re-upping as a near-Max player. To do so means he's your anchor for the next term. With his inflexible unwillingness to shoot more 3's, it's a huge flaw in someone who's the offensive go-to guy, much less one whose positional peers all fling it routinely. He's eliminating even a threat to take that 3 to the defense's advantage, don't you think.

Plus I don't like the idea of DeRozan being the face of the team for another 3-4 years. This is based on the spoiled nature of we Spurs fans who have had since 1990 Robinson, Duncan, Manu, Parker, and LA/Leonard as the main weapons.

Maybe we can't get better than DeRozan for 2022, but it's not a bad idea to sell and bide for another gem in FA, or develop internally. I really like Lavine in Chicago. He'd be a guy I'd chase to replace DeRozan. I'd accept DeRozan as a secondary good player, but not the franchise.

"However vets will need to be unloaded to get them on the court (LS) and up their mins played (DV)."

Maybe. Or maybe one or two of the vets could get Trey Lyled. There was no way I'd imagine Trey Lyles would NOT get minutes this season. If you told me that prior to the season, I wouldn't believe you.

"Plus I don't like the idea of DeRozan being the face of the team for another 3-4 years. This is based on the spoiled nature of we Spurs fans who have had since 1990 Robinson, Duncan, Manu, Parker, and LA/Leonard as the main weapons."

I 100% fully understand the unsurmountable obstacle that is named Mt. DeRozan. I get that fear and I get why people are strongly opposed to bring him back. But, just like I suggested in the opening post, maybe he will continue to take a backseat (or even moreso because the contract anxiety is gone) for the young guys like he has done for half of the games this season?

I just strongly disagree with the idea that systems & player management don't change when the roster stays the same. We are a completely different team from last year. Who is to say next year's team won't be completely different again, provided we maintain the same team and assuming we achieve nothing this year? ...though I personally think we will achieve something this year, but that's a separate topic.

[The Truth #6]

Player D: An athletic big who can shoot 3s.

Maybe next year?? (To clarify, YES, Player D is Luka.)

[ElNono]

our "valuable" vets such as: Mills & Gay

[ginobilized]

I love your point of view and positivity. It's awesome that you took the time to break this approach down.
Great thread le, too!