Serious Question: Has Vassell ever come up in the clutch?

[scott]

I’ve brought this up in a few threads, but as Devin clanked an ill advised 28 footer in OT, it reminded me once again that I cannot think of a single instance where Devin has come up big in the clutch. I cannot think of a single time where he has made a game winning/tying/icing shot in his entire career. Even Keldon has a few of those.

The best I can think of is the play-in game against NO where DJM got into early Foul Trouble, Devin stepped up and hit 7 threes (notably, he didn’t make any 2pt FGs that game).

Looking at Devin’s clutch stats this season (however it is that the NBA defines that), he leads the team in clutch time minutes (112) but is 14-41 (34.1%) from the field, 6-23 from 3 (26.1%).

Should we be concerns that Devin lacks the clutch gene? Not only does he not make the big shots, his BBIQ also seems to drop by 50 points when it’s crunch time (evidences by some of the ill advised shots he takes).

This is my biggest reason that I’m actually not all that high on Devin and think we’d be best off cashing in on his potential this offseason and moving on.

[Dejounte]

The stance I often take is the one of high probability based on trends, actions, and words spoken.

The question of if Vassell should be a long term Spur or if the Spurs should sell high therefore depends on what actions the Spurs have done to show Vassell’s value on the team, how Vassell is trending up or down as far as his role on the team, and what has Spurs’ leadership (mainly Pop) said about Vassell.

1) what have the Spurs done
—they gave him a big contract. Now do the Spurs immediately ship players they commit big money to? Sure they do. They did it with Murray, but that was an entirely different situation when the team didnt have a foundation piece in Wemby. So i’ll give this a 50/50.

2) Vassell’s role on the team
—he’s given the keys in the offense in the clutch. There are plays with him and Victor that they have drawn up that shows there are efforts to feature him as the 1B on offense to Victor’s 1A. So this is in favor of Vassell.

3) Words about Vassel
—Pop constantly says that they’re trying to build a one two punch combo consisting of Vassell and Wemby. He is really viewing Vassell as the Robin to Wemby’s Batman. I think they will continue to until Vassell stagnates next season or drops off. This season can’t really be viewed as a failure for Vassell, since overall performance-wise, he has shown improvement. This is in favor of Vassel.

in summary, I don’t think the book is closed on Vassell to where the Spurs will want to sell high on him. There have been no indication that the Spurs are disappointed in his overall performance. An example of disappointment would be how Keldon was relegated to the bench. If Vassell’s flaws become severe enough to where Pop starts benching him or reducing his role, then that’s when I agree that his time is almost up. Until then, the Spurs probably believe his performances in the clutch will develop and improve over time.

[John B]

It would be on Wemby’s hands, but Devin is willing and able to take the last shot as the 2nd option, likewise Keldon as the 3rd option. I think this season has been that, baptism by fire. Last night, I was hoping they put Wesley on Brunson as the better defender, but Pop stayed with Tre, because win or lose, Pop wants Tre to get that experience for Tre’s personal growth. The kids are getting the mileage, that they wouldn’t had gotten had the PATFO signed veteran help. I’m not saying the Spurs will not get help this off-season. They should and they would, explore everything to surround Wemby with as much help.

Devin has shown willingness to take difficult shots. I think those difficult shots will become easier shots, as the whole team gets better, and should raise his FG percentage.

[Dejounte]

It would be on Wemby’s hands, but Devin is willing and able to take the last shot as the 2nd option, likewise Keldon as the 3rd option. I think this season has been that, baptism by fire. Last night, I was hoping they put Wesley on Brunson as the better defender, but Pop stayed with Tre, because win or lose, Pop wants Tre to get that experience for Tre’s personal growth. The kids are getting the mileage, that they wouldn’t had gotten had the PATFO signed veteran help. I’m not saying the Spurs will not get help this off-season. They should and they would, explore everything to surround Wemby with as much help.

Devin has shown willingness to take difficult shots. I think those difficult shots will become easier shots, as the whole team gets better, and should raise his FG percentage.

You keep saying you wish Wesley was on Brunson last night, but he was. He defended him plenty during the first half and did subpar. The broadcaster even commented on it.

[scott]

It would be on Wemby’s hands, but Devin is willing and able to take the last shot as the 2nd option, likewise Keldon as the 3rd option. I think this season has been that, baptism by fire. Last night, I was hoping they put Wesley on Brunson as the better defender, but Pop stayed with Tre, because win or lose, Pop wants Tre to get that experience for Tre’s personal growth. The kids are getting the mileage, that they wouldn’t had gotten had the PATFO signed veteran help. I’m not saying the Spurs will not get help this off-season. They should and they would, explore everything to surround Wemby with as much help.

Devin has shown willingness to take difficult shots. I think those difficult shots will become easier shots, as the whole team gets better, and should raise his FG percentage.

Yes, Devin is very willing to take the shots... but that isn't the question. Can you think of a single example of where he has made one?

[scott]

The stance I often take is the one of high probability based on trends, actions, and words spoken.

The question of if Vassell should be a long term Spur or if the Spurs should sell high therefore depends on what actions the Spurs have done to show Vassell’s value on the team, how Vassell is trending up or down as far as his role on the team, and what has Spurs’ leadership (mainly Pop) said about Vassell.

1) what have the Spurs done
—they gave him a big contract. Now do the Spurs immediately ship players they commit big money to? Sure they do. They did it with Murray, but that was an entirely different situation when the team didnt have a foundation piece in Wemby. So i’ll give this a 50/50.

2) Vassell’s role on the team
—he’s given the keys in the offense in the clutch. There are plays with him and Victor that they have drawn up that shows there are efforts to feature him as the 1B on offense to Victor’s 1A. So this is in favor of Vassell.

3) Words about Vassel
—Pop constantly says that they’re trying to build a one two punch combo consisting of Vassell and Wemby. He is really viewing Vassell as the Robin to Wemby’s Batman. I think they will continue to until Vassell stagnates next season or drops off. This season can’t really be viewed as a failure for Vassell, since overall performance-wise, he has shown improvement. This is in favor of Vassel.

in summary, I don’t think the book is closed on Vassell to where the Spurs will want to sell high on him. There have been no indication that the Spurs are disappointed in his overall performance. An example of disappointment would be how Keldon was relegated to the bench. If Vassell’s flaws become severe enough to where Pop starts benching him or reducing his role, then that’s when I agree that his time is almost up. Until then, the Spurs probably believe his performances in the clutch will develop and improve over time.

I appreciate the response and agree with pretty much everything you said... but it's not really answering the question. I don't think the Spurs will move on from Devin, but I'm looking for a (valid) discussion whether Devin has a clutch gene. Because despite what the Spurs FO might do, it could inform a fan's perspective of evaluating the team's path going forward. If PAFTO truly believes Devin can be a clutch player... maybe that can just be chalked up to another example of their relative subpar talent evaluation skills as of late.

[Jordan Jackson]

I’m withholding judgment until there is a legitimate 2nd option next to Wemby. Devin is probably being asked to do things above his skill level - at this moment.

[Dejounte]

I appreciate the response and agree with pretty much everything you said... but it's not really answering the question. I don't think the Spurs will move on from Devin, but I'm looking for a (valid) discussion whether Devin has a clutch gene. Because despite what the Spurs FO might do, it could inform a fan's perspective of evaluating the team's path going forward. If PAFTO truly believes Devin can be a clutch player... maybe that can just be chalked up to another example of their relative subpar talent evaluation skills as of late.

does Devin have the clutch gene?

—my ideal answer is “TBD” but some people won’t accept that. If i had to choose for now, I’ll say no and go by the evidence you’ve provided.

Should we be concerned about Devin lacking the clutch gene? And should that affect the team’s path forward?

—No and no. What percentage of games are determined by what happens in the clutch? I would hope the team’s goal to become a powerhouse involves them being a team that doesn’t find themselves in that position often (say, less than 10% of games). Their focus should be to construct a roster that blows out the other team for most of their wins and let the bench handle their business in fourth quarters. I just think the evaluation on Vassell has too much emphasis on how he performs in the clutch. LeBron was terrible in the clutch for the first quarter of his career, if anyone remembers that.

[scott]

What percentage of games are determined by what happens in the clutch?

This is actually a really good question.

This season, Pascal Siakam leads the league in games played in "clutch time" with 41. Obviously that is split between IND and TOR, so it's a little misleading. Dejounte Murray is #2 with 40 GP. Chicago appears third with 30, then GSW with 38.

Among good teams, MIL has played 36, PHX, 36, DEN 36, SAC 35, CLE 33, LAC 32, OKC 30. BOS, has played 29.

Looking at historically great Spurs teams, it looks like the 2013-2014 Spurs played 27 (at least that is how many Boris played in, which led the team). That year, Demar Derozan lead the league with 51 GP in "clutch".

The 2015-16 Spurs who won 67 games were led by LaMarcus with 26 clutch games played. Again, the league leader (Paul George) had 51.

The 2016-17 Spurs were lead by Kawhi with 37 GP. League leader was Bradly Beal with 53.

2006-07 Spurs were led by Bruce with 38 GP. KG led the league with 47.

2004-05 Spurs were led by Bruce with 29. KG led the league with 54.

2002-03 Spurs were led by Timmy with 43. Allen Houston led the league with 57.

1998-99 Spurs were lead by Avery Johnson with 20. Reggie Miller lead league with 36 (50 game season).

So it appears that when the Spurs are Championship level good, they play in about half the number of clutch time games than the league leaders, and about 35-45% of games played will end up "clutch time", which is still a significant number.

[Mr. Body]

I like how one person asks whether Vassell can do it in the clutch and another user immediately starts talking about trading him.

Never change, SpursTalk!

[Seventyniner]

Yes, Devin is very willing to take the shots... but that isn't the question. Can you think of a single example of where he has made one?

One single basket? I think you are being very reductionist here, both in this post and in the thread in general. The question shouldn't be "has Vassell ever come up in the clutch?" because a single example shows that the answer is "yes".

Instead, ask "does Vassell come up in the clutch enough?". This is a subjective question but at least opens the door for nuance.

Even then, there have been many papers and articles showing that the "clutch gene" doesn't exist. Here is one that looked at data from 2008-2019, meaning it is fairly recent.

https://www.econ.berkeley.edu/sites/...s%20Thesis.pdf

Even though clutch performances occur as singular events, they are not tied to
particular abilities possessed by certain players. With repeated evidence against clutch ability in
the literature and again in this paper, an interesting further research would be looking at the
underlying reasons why clutchness is still widely believed by the fans and the media.

One thing that does worry me about Vassell in particular is that he is a bad free throw shooter in the clutch. That is one stat that does have a correlation to clutch performance, albeit a weak one.

https://stats100blog.wordpress.com/2...ne-in-the-nba/

Thus, there seems to be no robust way to predict clutchness based on regular season performance, at least with multiple linear regression, however, the one silver lining is that there does seem to be a consistent, non-negligible relationship between free throw percentage and clutchness.

Vassell's FT% in clutch situations (defined by NBA.com as neither team leading by more than 5, in the last 5 minutes of the game) is 65% this season, 60% last season, and 50% two seasons ago. That is horrible. Still, the r^2 correlation value between clutch FT% and overall clutch elevation was only 0.218, which is pretty weak.

Overall, I wouldn't use stats, or especially highlights (or lowlights in this case) as a reason to believe Vassell will or will not be an effective player going forward. There are far more useful data points to use for such an argument.

[scott]

I like how one person asks whether Vassell can do it in the clutch and another user immediately starts talking about trading him.

Never change, SpursTalk!

I mean, I brought up trading him in the original post. Certainly not off topic.

[scott]

One single basket? I think you are being very reductionist here, both in this post and in the thread in general. The question shouldn't be "has Vassell ever come up in the clutch?" because a single example shows that the answer is "yes".

Great post and data, thank you.

In regards to being reductionist, I'm not trying to do so - I just legitimately struggle to think of a single instance where he delivered the game winning/tying/icing shot in his entire 4-year career here. I can think of several times when Keldon has done. Several when DJM did it. Several when Wemby has done it already. I can't for Devin (but I can recall the shots he's taken in these moments). Also a slight distinction, I used his clutch time stats (which you defined above), but I specifically refering to game winning/tying/icing situations (which yes, is reductionist in that regard).

I just question whether our #2 can be a #2 if he can't deliver in those big moments.

With that said, the links you provided look great and I look forward to diving into them.

[Mr. Body]

I mean, I brought up trading him in the original post. Certainly not off topic.

Right, everyone here is in a lunatic asylum.

[scott]

Right, everyone here is in a lunatic asylum.

Maybe you should just shoot yourself in the head?

[Mr. Body]

Maybe you should just shoot yourself in the head?

I do every time I come back to SpursTalk. Damn it, I promised myself to cut it out. There's decent draft stuff, but the opinions around here are just cack awful.

So... why the would you trade a really good and developing young SG just because he's not clutch? WHY THE WOULD YOU DO THIS. If he's not hitting clutch shots, YOU FIND ANOTHER PLAYER WHO CAN. YOU STILL NEED GOOD PLAYERS EVERY OTHER ING PART OF THE GAME.

Wembanyama has been pretty miserable in the clutch, too, you know. Trade his ing ass, too. Then we can whine about not having any players.

[scott]

I do every time I come back to SpursTalk. Damn it, I promised myself to cut it out. There's decent draft stuff, but the opinions around here are just cack awful.

So... why the would you trade a really good and developing young SG just because he's not clutch? WHY THE WOULD YOU DO THIS. If he's not hitting clutch shots, YOU FIND ANOTHER PLAYER WHO CAN. YOU STILL NEED GOOD PLAYERS EVERY OTHER ING PART OF THE GAME.

Wembanyama has been pretty miserable in the clutch, too, you know. Trade his ing ass, too. Then we can whine about not having any players.

IDK man, maybe it's because he isn't some role player. He's your supposed #2 who you are paying $30MM/year. You kind of need that guy to come up in big moments, not jack up contested 26-footers while we are up two with 24 seconds to play, or any of the other ill-advised decision making we've seen out of him in big moments. Maybe in his 8th year he'll finally be a contributor in clutch time?

As for Wemby, we've seen plenty of instances of him coming up big in these instances. I'd feel a lot more comfortable seeing Devin do it just once.

[John B]

You keep saying you wish Wesley was on Brunson last night, but he was. He defended him plenty during the first half and did subpar. The broadcaster even commented on it.

That was a general response to Pop putting a line-up to “get experience” as opposed to merely getting the W. I would think his defensive strategy would be different when winning matters more, i.e. playoff, etc. But to reiterate, the season is getting the experience. Devin has plenty of situations where he takes the difficult shots, make it or not. I agree with you, those clutch shots should be less as the Spurs develop a powerhouse that blows up compe ion, which should also raise the FG percentage for everyone. Bowen, Neal, Mills, Green, etc they all benefited from that “system” where roles where placed, and they didn’t have to decide on a fly. Likewise I expect the same once PATFO assembled that line-up where everyone would be “comfortable” with their respective roles, Devin as a 1B or not after infusing the necessary help, whether through draft, trades, etc. I think the whole team would have “easier shots,” thus the question whether Devin is a clutch shot is less significant, than is Devin willing and capable of taking shots. Yes he will.

[exstatic]

That one legged three pointer late against the Jazz was pretty clutch.

[scott]

That one legged three pointer late against the Jazz was pretty clutch.

A nice shot with the shot clock running down... in the first half of a game.

[JPB]

I do every time I come back to SpursTalk. Damn it, I promised myself to cut it out. There's decent draft stuff, but the opinions around here are just cack awful.

People's opinions diverge and a lot of things here, but one thing most people will agree on is that this board's quality and fun would rise by 100% just by you staying away, and the "godam, isn't this weird guy annyoing with his constant "me against all this stupid posters" schitck in every freaking thread" would drop by 100% in everybody's head..., specially when said weird guy has some of the worst takes ever.

[MannyIsGod]

Hard to judge how clutch a player is when he's on teams that allow the defense to focus on him in end game situations and when he has a coach that is awful at end of game situations. An unanswerable question imo.

[MannyIsGod]

People's opinions diverge and a lot of things here, but one thing most people will agree on here is that this board's quality and fun would rise by 100% just by you staying away, and the "godam, isn't this weird guy annyoing with his constant "me against all this stupid posters" schitck in every freaking thread" would drop by 100% in everybody's head...

1000000000%

[scott]

Hard to judge how clutch a player is when he's on teams that allow the defense to focus on him in end game situations and when he has a coach that is awful at end of game situations. An unanswerable question imo.

Fair AF, tbqh

[Light]

Vassell has hit big shots late in games, but the not the "clutch" shot as been defined in this thread.